Strategic foresight and barriers: the application of scenario planning in SMEs

Strategic foresight research often overlooks SMEs, leaving them vulnerable in a changing landscape. While scenario planning is valuable for SMEs, literature notes barriers. Three case studies examined these barriers, revealing challenges. Despite challenges, our workshop on structured scenario planning met enthusiasm, addressing outside-in thinking. The SMEs employed scenarios not just for adaptation but also as a narrative foundation for broader strategy development. Four preconditions for effective SME scenario planning were identified: (1) Diverse group composition to stimulate divergent views, (2) reflection on the business-as-usual narrative, (3) structured approach with steps over time, and (4) leadership to support implementation and follow-up actions.