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3Background: end-of-life care is not always in line with end-of-life preferences, so patients do not always die at their preferred place of death (PPD). This study aims to identify factors associated with patients' PPD and changes in PPD.
Methods: we prospectively collected data on PPD at four time points within 6 months from 230 acutely hospitalised older patients who were part of the control group in a stepped-wedge randomised controlled trial. Associations between patient characteristics and preferences were calculated using multivariable (multinomial) logistic regression analysis.
Results: the mean age of participants was 80.7 years. 47.8% of the patients had no PPD at hospital admission. Patients previously admitted to hospital preferred to die at home (home versus no preference: odds ratio [OR] 2.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-4.92; home versus healthcare facility: OR 3.25, 95% CI 1.15-9.16). Patients with more chronic diseases preferred the healthcare facility as their PPD (healthcare facility versus no preference: OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.09-1.61; healthcare facility versus home: OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.00-1.47). 32 of 65 patients changed their preference during follow-up, and most of these had no PPD at hospital admission (home versus no preference: OR 0.005, 95% CI ≤0.001-0.095) and poorer self-rated well-being (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.07-3.08).
Conclusions: almost half of the patients had no PPD at baseline. Previous hospital admission, having more chronic diseases and living alone are associated with having a PPD. Introducing PPD could make older people aware of PPD and facilitate optimal palliative care.
DOCUMENT
Aggregation into groups may affect performance of individuals through the balance and strength of facilitative versus competitive interactions. We studied in situ how seasonal variation in abiotic environment affects this balance for blue mussels, a semi-sessile species. We hypothesize that seasonal variation in stresses and resources affects the strength of the interaction. We expected that, in benign conditions (here: high food availability, medium temperatures, low hydrodynamic stress), performance is dominated by growth and is better at low densities, while at adverse conditions (here: low food availability, low or high temperatures, high hydrodynamic stress), performance is dominated by survival and higher at high densities. Mussels were kept in shallow subtidal exclosures at 10 different densities for a one-month period. This exact procedure was repeated seven times at the same location within a one-year period. We measured development in mussel patch shape, performance, and environmental parameters. Environmental conditions for mussels were most benign in summer and most adverse in winter. Patches developed into less complex shapes at lower densities, but also after stronger hydrodynamic disturbances. Towards summer, mussels became more active, aggregation behavior increased, and interactions became more pronounced. Towards winter, mussels became less active: aggregation behavior and growth rates declined and at the lowest temperatures survival started to decrease with mussel density. Survival and growth (by proxy of mussel condition) were both density-dependent; however, contrary to our expectations we found positive interactions between density and survival at the most benign conditions in summer and negative interactions at the most adverse conditions in winter. In between the two seasons, the strength of the interactions increased towards summer and decreased towards winter following a bell-shaped pattern. This pattern might be explained by the environmental mediated aggregation behavior of the mussels. The obvious seasonal pattern in balance and strength of density-dependent interactions demonstrates that strength and direction of intra-specific interactions are both strongly affected by environmental context.
DOCUMENT
The carbon sink capacity of tropical forests is substantially affected by tree mortality. However, the main drivers of tropical tree death remain largely unknown. Here we present a pan-Amazonian assessment of how and why trees die, analysing over 120,000 trees representing > 3800 species from 189 long-term RAINFOR forest plots. While tree mortality rates vary greatly Amazon-wide, on average trees are as likely to die standing as they are broken or uprooted—modes of death with different ecological consequences. Species-level growth rate is the single most important predictor of tree death in Amazonia, with faster growing species being at higher risk. Within species, however, the slowest-growing trees are at greatest risk while the effect of tree size varies across the basin. In the driest Amazonian region species-level bioclimatic distributional patterns also predict the risk of death, suggesting that these forests are experiencing climatic conditions beyond their adaptative limits.These results provide not only a holistic pan-Amazonian picture of tree death but largescale evidence for the overarching importance of the growth–survival trade-off in driving tropical tree mortality.
DOCUMENT
Background: Increasing life expectancy in high-income countries has been linked to a rise in fall mortality. In the Netherlands, mortality rates from falls have increased gradually from the 1950s, with some indication of stabilisation in the 1990s. For population health and clinical practice, it is important to foresee the future fall mortality trajectories. Methods: A graphical approach was used to explore trends in mortality by age, calendar period and cohorts born in the periods of 1915–1945. Population data and the numbers of people with accidental fall fatality as underlying cause of death from 1990 to 2021 were derived from Statistics Netherlands. Age-standardised mortality rates of unintentional falls per 100 000 population were calculated by year and sex. A log-linear model was used to examine the separate effects of age, period and cohort on the trend in mortality and to produce estimates of future numbers of fall deaths until 2045. Results: While the total population increased by 17% between 1990 and 2021, absolute numbers of fall-related deaths rose by 230% (from 1584 to 5234), which was 251% (an increase of 576 deaths in 1990 to 2021 deaths in 2020) for men and 219% (from 1008 to 3213) for women. Age-standardised figures were higher for women than men and increased more over time. In 2020, 79% of those with death due to falls were over the age of 80, and 35% were 90 years or older. From 2020 to 2045, the observed and projected numbers of fall deaths were 2021 and 7073 for men (250% increase) and 3213 and 12 575 for women (291% increase). Conclusion: Mortality due to falls has increased in the past decades and will continue to rise sharply, mainly caused by growing numbers of older adults, especially those in their 80s and 90s. Contributing risk factors are well known, implementation of preventive measures is a much needed next step. An effective approach to managing elderly people after falls is warranted to reduce crowding in the emergency care and reduce unnecessary long hospital stays.
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In the literature about web survey methodology, significant eorts have been made to understand the role of time-invariant factors (e.g. gender, education and marital status) in (non-)response mechanisms. Time-invariant factors alone, however, cannot account for most variations in (non-)responses, especially fluctuations of response rates over time. This observation inspires us to investigate the counterpart of time-invariant factors, namely time-varying factors and the potential role they play in web survey (non-)response. Specifically, we study the effects of time, weather and societal trends (derived from Google Trends data) on the daily (non-)response patterns of the 2016 and 2017 Dutch Health Surveys. Using discrete-time survival analysis, we find, among others, that weekends, holidays, pleasant weather, disease outbreaks and terrorism salience are associated with fewer responses. Furthermore, we show that using these variables alone achieves satisfactory prediction accuracy of both daily and cumulative response rates when the trained model is applied to future unseen data. This approach has the further benefit of requiring only non-personal contextual information and thus involving no privacy issues. We discuss the implications of the study for survey research and data collection.
DOCUMENT
Promotion of a healthy pregnancy is a top priority of the health care policy in many European countries. Perinatal mortality is an important indicator of the success of this policy. Recently, it was shown that the Netherlands has relatively high perinatal death rates when compared to other European countries. This is in particular true for large cities where perinatal mortality rates are 20–50% higher than elsewhere. Consequently in the Netherlands, there is heated debate on how to tackle these problems. Without the introduction of measures throughout the entire perinatal health care chain, pregnancy outcomes are difficult to improve. With the support of health care professionals, the City of Rotterdam and the Erasmus University Medical Centre have taken the initiative to develop an urban perinatal health programme called ‘Ready for a Baby’. The main objective of this municipal 10-year programme is to improve perinatal health and to reduce perinatal mortality in all districts to at least the current national average of l0 per 1000. Key elements are the understanding of the mechanisms of the large health differences between women living in deprived and nondeprived urban areas. Risk guided care, orientation towards shared-care and improvement of collaborations between health care professionals shapes the interventions that are being developed. Major attention is given to the development of methods to improve risk-selection before and during pregnancy and methods to reach low-educated and immigrant groups.
DOCUMENT
BACKGROUND:
The Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation - Older Persons (SCORE-OP) algorithm is developed to assess 10-year risk of death due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals aged ≥65 years. We studied the performance of SCORE-OP in the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) prospective population cohort.
METHODS:
10-year CVD mortality as predicted by SCORE-OP was compared with observed CVD mortality among individuals in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort. Persons aged 65-79 years without known CVD were included in the analysis. CVD mortality was defined as death due to ischemic heart disease, cardiac failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral-artery disease or aortic aneurysm. Predicted 10-year CVD mortality was calculated by the SCORE-OP algorithm, and compared to observed mortality rates. The area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUROC) was calculated to evaluate discriminative power. Calibration was evaluated by calculating ratios of predicted vs observed mortality and by Hosmer-Lemeshow tests.
RESULTS:
A total of 6590 individuals (45.8% men), mean age 70.2 years (standard deviation 3.3) were included. The predicted mortality by SCORE-OP was 9.84% (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.76-9.92) and observed mortality was 10.2% (95% CI 9.52-11.04), ratio 0.96. AUROC was 0.63 (95% CI 0.60-0.65), and X2 was 3.3 (p = 0.92).
CONCLUSION:
SCORE-OP overall accurately estimates the rate of CVD mortality in a general population aged 65-79 years. However, while calibration is excellent, the discriminative power of the SCORE-OP is limited, and as such cannot be readily implemented in clinical practice for this population.
DOCUMENT
When patients die relatives and healthcare professionals may appreciate the quality of the dying phase differently, but comparisons are rare. In a cross-sectional study (June 2009–July 2012) the experiences of bereaved relatives, physicians, and nurses concerning the quality of dying in a large Dutch university hospital were compared, and the relation to communication was explored. Measurements were concordance on the quality of dying (QOD) (0–10 scale), awareness of impending death, and end-of-life communication. Results. Data on all three perspectives were available for 200 patients. Concordance in general was poor. Relatives’ scores for QOD (median 7; IQR 5–8) were lower than physicians and nurses’ (both median 7; IQR 6–8) (P =0,002). 48% of the relatives, 77% of the physicians, and 73% of the nurses had been aware of impending death. Physicians more often reported to have informed patients and relatives of end-of-life issues than relatives reported. When both physicians and relatives reported about such discussion, relatives’ awareness of impending death and presence at the patient’s deathbed were more likely. Conclusion. Relatives, physicians, and nurses seem to have their “own truth” about the dying phase. Professionals should put more emphasis on the collaboration with relatives and on verification of relative’s understanding.
DOCUMENT
Objectives: Hospital admission in older adults is associated with unwanted outcomes such as readmission, institutionalization, and functional decline. To reduce these outcomes, the Netherlands introduced an alternative to hospital-based care: the Acute Geriatric Community Hospital (AGCH). The AGCH is an acute care unit situated outside of a hospital focusing on early rehabilitation and comprehensive geriatric assessment. The objective of this study was to evaluate if AGCH care is associated with decreasing unplanned readmissions or death compared with hospital-based care. Design: Prospective cohort study controlled with a historic cohort. Setting and Participants: A (sub)acute care unit (AGCH) and 6 hospitals in the Netherlands; participants were acutely ill older adults. Methods: We used inverse propensity score weighting to account for baseline differences. The primary outcome was 90-day readmission or death. Secondary outcomes included 30-day readmission or death, time to death, admission to long-term residential care, occurrence of falls and functioning over time. Generalized logistic regression models and multilevel regression analyses were used to estimate effects. Results: AGCH patients (n = 206) had lower 90-day readmission or death rates [odds ratio (OR) 0.39, 95% CI 0.23-0.67] compared to patients treated in hospital (n = 401). AGCH patients had a lower risk of 90-day readmission (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.21-0.67) but did not differ on all-cause mortality (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.44-1.79) compared with the hospital control group. AGCH patients had lower 30-day readmission or death rates. Secondary outcomes did not differ. Conclusions and Implications: AGCH patients had lower rates of readmission and/or death than patients treated in a hospital. Our results support further research on the implementation and cost-effectiveness of AGCH in the Netherlands and other countries seeking alternatives to hospital-based care.
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Natural burial grounds represent a new burial provision in the Netherlands. We use Bergerbos natural burial ground to examine how the concept of natural burial grounds is interpreted, as well as the people who have chosen burial at Bergerbos. We found that an important aim of Bergerbos it to provide the users freedom to arrange burials the way they wish. Its mature woodland and aim of habitat preservation distinguish it from the most common interpretation of British natural burial grounds which create new habitat through the marking of graves with commemorative trees. These different interpretations of woodland burial carry implications for the preservation of the deceased’s individual identity. In the
Netherlands such individuality is signified by permanent grave markers, while in the UK, the individual grave identities become subsumed into a shared collective memorial landscape over time. However, Bergerbos implemented strict regulations about materialized memorialization, which may affect the way bereaved can express the deceased’s individuality and the freedom they experience at Bergerbos. Burial records of Bergerbos show that age matters. Bergerbos enjoys popularity among baby boomers and parents of
deceased babies. The notion of returning to nature provides people, especially those who are terminally ill, a sense of reconciliation.
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