Background: Modern modeling techniques may potentially provide more accurate predictions of dichotomous outcomes than classical techniques. Objective: In this study, we aimed to examine the predictive performance of eight modeling techniques to predict mortality by frailty. Methods: We performed a longitudinal study with a 7-year follow-up. The sample consisted of 479 Dutch community-dwelling people, aged 75 years and older. Frailty was assessed with the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI), a self-report questionnaire. This questionnaire consists of eight physical, four psychological, and three social frailty components. The municipality of Roosendaal, a city in the Netherlands, provided the mortality dates. We compared modeling techniques, such as support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), random forest, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, as well as classical techniques, such as logistic regression, two Bayesian networks, and recursive partitioning (RP). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) indicated the performance of the models. The models were validated using bootstrapping. Results: We found that the NN model had the best validated performance (AUROC=0.812), followed by the SVM model (AUROC=0.705). The other models had validated AUROC values below 0.700. The RP model had the lowest validated AUROC (0.605). The NN model had the highest optimism (0.156). The predictor variable “difficulty in walking” was important for all models. Conclusions: Because of the high optimism of the NN model, we prefer the SVM model for predicting mortality among community-dwelling older people using the TFI, with the addition of “gender” and “age” variables. External validation is a necessary step before applying the prediction models in a new setting.
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Abstract Background: COVID-19 was first identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China. The virus quickly spread and was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020. After infection, symptoms such as fever, a (dry) cough, nasal congestion, and fatigue can develop. In some cases, the virus causes severe complications such as pneumonia and dyspnea and could result in death. The virus also spread rapidly in the Netherlands, a small and densely populated country with an aging population. Health care in the Netherlands is of a high standard, but there were nevertheless problems with hospital capacity, such as the number of available beds and staff. There were also regions and municipalities that were hit harder than others. In the Netherlands, there are important data sources available for daily COVID-19 numbers and information about municipalities. Objective: We aimed to predict the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands, using a data set with the properties of 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and advanced modeling techniques. Methods: We collected relevant static data per municipality from data sources that were available in the Dutch public domain and merged these data with the dynamic daily number of infections from January 1, 2020, to May 9, 2021, resulting in a data set with 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and variables grouped into 20 topics. The modeling techniques random forest and multiple fractional polynomials were used to construct a prediction model for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands. Results: The final prediction model had an R2 of 0.63. Important properties for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality in the Netherlands were exposure to particulate matter with diameters <10 μm (PM10) in the air, the percentage of Labour party voters, and the number of children in a household. Conclusions: Data about municipality properties in relation to the cumulative number of confirmed infections in a municipality in the Netherlands can give insight into the most important properties of a municipality for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality. This insight can provide policy makers with tools to cope with COVID-19 and may also be of value in the event of a future pandemic, so that municipalities are better prepared.
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Epidemiological miner cohort data used to estimate lung cancer risks related to occupational radon exposure often lack cohort-wide information on exposure to tobacco smoke, a potential confounder and important effect modifier. We have developed a method to project data on smoking habits from a case-control study onto an entire cohort by means of a Monte Carlo resampling technique. As a proof of principle, this method is tested on a subcohort of 35,084 former uranium miners employed at the WISMUT company (Germany), with 461 lung cancer deaths in the follow-up period 1955–1998. After applying the proposed imputation technique, a biologically-based carcinogenesis model is employed to analyze the cohort's lung cancer mortality data. A sensitivity analysis based on a set of 200 independent projections with subsequent model analyses yields narrow distributions of the free model parameters, indicating that parameter values are relatively stable and independent of individual projections. This technique thus offers a possibility to account for unknown smoking habits, enabling us to unravel risks related to radon, to smoking, and to the combination of both.
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Background: Advanced statistical modeling techniques may help predict health outcomes. However, it is not the case that these modeling techniques always outperform traditional techniques such as regression techniques. In this study, external validation was carried out for five modeling strategies for the prediction of the disability of community-dwelling older people in the Netherlands. Methods: We analyzed data from five studies consisting of community-dwelling older people in the Netherlands. For the prediction of the total disability score as measured with the Groningen Activity Restriction Scale (GARS), we used fourteen predictors as measured with the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI). Both the TFI and the GARS are self-report questionnaires. For the modeling, five statistical modeling techniques were evaluated: general linear model (GLM), support vector machine (SVM), neural net (NN), recursive partitioning (RP), and random forest (RF). Each model was developed on one of the five data sets and then applied to each of the four remaining data sets. We assessed the performance of the models with calibration characteristics, the correlation coefficient, and the root of the mean squared error. Results: The models GLM, SVM, RP, and RF showed satisfactory performance characteristics when validated on the validation data sets. All models showed poor performance characteristics for the deviating data set both for development and validation due to the deviating baseline characteristics compared to those of the other data sets. Conclusion: The performance of four models (GLM, SVM, RP, RF) on the development data sets was satisfactory. This was also the case for the validation data sets, except when these models were developed on the deviating data set. The NN models showed a much worse performance on the validation data sets than on the development data sets.
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Coupling beams between shear walls are one of the key elements for energy dissipation in tall buildings. A representative mathematical model of coupling beam should represent flexure, shear and interface slip/extension mechanisms simultaneously. This goal can be achieved by using either detailed finite element models or by using macro models. This paper presents a review of various macro model alternatives for diagonally reinforced coupling beams in the literature. Three distinct methods have been reviewed in terms of their modeling techniques, the cyclic response overlap and the amount of cumulative plastic energy dissipated based on the results of previously performed tests. Through an analytical study, adequately accurate results can be captured by using macro models, although they are simpler in practice compared to sophisticated micro models. This study shows that, by modifying ultimate shear capacities where concrete material between diagonal bundles is adequately confined, it is possible to capture a more realistic result and a better approximation to the actual responses. It is also concluded that a simpler numerical model for diagonally reinforced coupling beams can be achieved by introducing linear part of slip/extension behavior into elastic part of the beam. It is observed, as a result of this study, that the ratio of effective stiffness to that of the gross cross-sectional one ranges from 0.04 to 0.14 in diagonally reinforced coupling beams depending on the aspect ratio and the beam strength parameters.
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Even in well-studied organisms, it is often challenging to uncover the social and environmental determinants of fitness. Typically, fitness is determined by a variety of factors that act in concert, thus forming complex networks of causal relationships. Moreover, even strong correlations between social and environmental conditions and fitness components may not be indicative of direct causal links, as the measured variables may be driven by unmeasured (or unmeasurable) causal factors. Standard statistical approaches, like multiple regression analyses, are not suited for disentangling such complex causal relationships. Here, we apply structural equation modeling (SEM), a technique that is specifically designed to reveal causal relationships between variables, and which also allows to include hypothetical causal factors. Therefore, SEM seems ideally suited for comparing alternative hypotheses on how fitness differences arise from differences in social and environmental factors. We apply SEM to a rich data set collected in a long-term study on the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis), a bird species with facultatively cooperative breeding and a high rate of extra-group paternity. Our analysis reveals that the presence of helpers has a positive effect on the reproductive output of both female and male breeders. In contrast, per capita food availability does not affect reproductive output. Our analysis does not confirm earlier suggestions on other species that the presence of helpers has a negative effect on the reproductive output of male breeders. As such, both female and male breeders should tolerate helpers in their territories, irrespective of food availability.
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Within this study the aim is to measure running workload and relevant running technique key points on varying cadence in recreational runners using a custom build sensor system ‘Nodes’. Seven participants ran on a treadmill at a self-chosen comfortable speed. Cadence was randomly guided by a metronome using 92%, 96%, 100%, 104%, and 108% of the preferred cadence in 2-min trials. Workload was measured by collecting the heart rate and the rating of perceived exertion (RPE 1 to 10) scores. Heart rate data shows that the 100% cadence trial was most economical with a relative heart rate of 99.2%. The 108% cadence trial had the lowest relative RPE score with 96.2%. The sample rate of the Nodes system during this experiment was too low to analyze the key points. Three requirements are proposed for the further engineering of a wearable running system, (i) sampling frequency of minimal 50 Hz, (ii) step-by-step analysis, and (iii) collecting workload in the heart rate and RPE.
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The pervasiveness of wearable technology has opened the market for products that analyse running biomechanics and provide feedback to the user. To improve running technique feedback should target specific running biomechanical key points and promote an external focus. Aim for this study was to define and empirically test tailored feedback requirements for optimal motor learning in four consumer available running wearables. First, based on desk research and observations of coaches, a screening protocol was developed. Second, four wearables were tested according to the protocol. Third, results were reviewed, and four experts identified future requirements. Testing and reviewing the selected wearables with the protocol revealed that only two less relevant running biomechanical key points were measured. Provided feedback promotes an external focus of the user. Tailoring was absent in all wearables. These findings indicate that consumer available running wearables have a potential for optimal motor learning but need improvements as well.
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Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) are dedicated to the professionalization of human capital; to accomplish this, the link with the productive sector is an active component that must be strengthened through formal mechanisms. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the relationships and effects from the Institutional Framework (IF), as well as from the independent variables in the context of linking HEI with the industrial sector. Survey data were collected from 47 HEIs in the Northwest of Mexico; a mixed research approach was applied and analyzed through the partial least-squares structural equations modeling (PLS-SEM) technique. Although the IF is identified as a relevant aspect for the model, this is not a problem for Mexican HEIs, since the analysis reflects a solid legal framework regarding the common basic levels and research. The main impact for experts who carry out research activities is that the route to creating, maintaining, and promoting integrated academic, technical, and administrative personnel as a specialized work team is not achieved. The main factor that does not contribute for researchers who carry out research activities is that the route to integrating (creating-maintaining-promoting) academic, technical, and administrative personnel as a specialized work team is not achieved. One finding is that the informants agree with the existing stimuli that are not aimed at research linked to the industrial sector and problem-solving through applied research. There is a need for retaining the groups of researchers to help make the benefits for the industry clear by offering advanced linkage levels.
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In this paper, a general approach for modeling airport operations is presented. Airport operations have been extensively studied in the last decades ranging from airspace, airside and landside operations. Due to the nature of the system, simulation techniques have emerged as a powerful approach for dealing with the variability of these operations. However, in most of the studies, the different elements are studied in an individual fashion. The aim of this paper, is to overcome this limitation by presenting a methodological approach where airport operations are modeled together, such as airspace and airside. The contribution of this approach is that the resolution level for the different elements is similar therefore the interface issues between them is minimized. The framework can be used by practitioners for simulating complex systems like airspace-airside operations or multi-airport systems. The framework is illustrated by presenting a case study analyzed by the authors.
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