The objective of the study described in this paper is to define safety metrics that are based on the effectiveness of risk controls. Service providers define and implement such risk controls in order to prevent hazards developing into an accident. The background of this research is a specific need of the aviation industry where small and medium-sized enterprises lack large amounts of safety-related data to measure and demonstrate their safety performance proactively. The research department of the Aviation Academy has initiated a 4-year study, which will test the possibility to develop new safety indicators that will be able to represent safety levels proactively without the benefit of large data sets. As part of the development of alternative safety metrics, safety performance indicators were defined that are based on the effectiveness of risk controls. ICAO (2013) defines a risk control as “a defence with specific mitigation actions, preventive controls or recovery measures put in place to prevent the realization of a hazard or its escalation into an undesirable consequence”. Examples of risk controls are procedures, education and training, a piece of equipment etc. It is crucial for service providers to determine whether the introduced risk controls are indeed effective in reducing the targeted risk. ICAO (2013) describes the effectiveness of risk control as "the extent to which the risk control reduces or eliminates the safety risks”, but does not provide guidance on how to measure the effectiveness of risk control. In this study, a generic metrics for the effectiveness of risk controls based on their effectiveness was developed. The definition of the indicators allows, for each risk control, derivation of specific indicators based on the generic metrics. The suitability of the metrics will subsequently be tested in pilot studies within the aviation industry.
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Within recent years, Financial Credit Risk Assessment (FCRA) has become an increasingly important issue within the financial industry. Therefore, the search for features that can predict the credit risk of an organization has increased. Using multiple statistical techniques, a variance of features has been proposed. Applying a structured literature review, 258 papers have been selected. From the selected papers, 835 features have been identified. The features have been analyzed with respect to the type of feature, the information sources needed and the type of organization that applies the features. Based on the results of the analysis, the features have been plotted in the FCRA Model. The results show that most features focus on hard information from a transactional source, based on official information with a high latency. In this paper, we readdress and -present our earlier work [1]. We extended the previous research with more detailed descriptions of the related literature, findings, and results, which provides a grounded basis from which further research on FCRA can be conducted.
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The aim of the present study was to determine whether a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM) in a primary setting is associated with an increased risk of subsequent depression. A retrospective cohort design was used based on the Registration Network Family Practice (RNH) database. Patients diagnosed with diabetes mellitus at or after the age of 40 and who were diagnosed between 01-01-1980 and 01-01-2007 (N = 6,140), were compared with age-matched controls from a reference group (N = 18,416) without a history of diabetes. Both groups were followed for an emerging first diagnosis of depression (and/or depressive feelings) until January 1, 2008. 2.0% of the people diagnosed with diabetes mellitus developed a depressive disorder, compared to 1.6% of the reference group. After statistical correction for confounding factors diabetes mellitus was associated with an increased risk of developing subsequent depression (HR 1.26; 95% CI: 1.12-1.42) and/or depressive feelings (HR 1.33; 95% CI: 1.18-1.46). After statistical adjustment practice identification code, age and depression preceding diabetes, were significantly related to a diagnosis of depression. Patients with diabetes mellitus are more likely to develop subsequent depression than persons without a history of diabetes. Results from this large longitudinal study based on a general practice population indicate that this association is weaker than previously found in cross-sectional research using self-report surveys. Several explanations for this dissimilarity are discussed
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Abstract: Since the first Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancer’s results were published, people have become more aware of the risks associated with prenatal exposure from diagnostic x rays. As a result, it has since been the subject of many studies. In this review, the results of recent epidemiological studies are summarized. The current international guidelines for diagnostic x-ray examinations were compared to the review. All epidemiological studies starting from 2007 and all relevant international guidelines were included. Apart from one study that involved rhabdomyosarcoma, no statistically significant associations were found between prenatal exposure to x rays and the development of cancer during 2007–2020. Most of the studies were constrained in their design due to too small a cohort or number of cases, minimal x-ray exposure, and/or data obtained from the exposed mothers instead of medical reports. In one of the studies, computed tomography exposure was also included, and this requires more and longer follow-up in successive studies. Most international guidelines are comparable, provide risk coefficients that are quite conservative, and discourage abdominal examinations of pregnant women.
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The aim of the study was to evaluate whether multiple sclerosis (MS) is associated with risk of cataract or glaucoma. We conducted a population-based cohort study utilizing the UK General Practice Research Database (1987–2009) linked to the national hospital registry of England (1997–2008). Incident MS patients (5576 cases) were identified and each was matched to six patients without MS (controls) by age, gender, and practice. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of incident cataract and glaucoma in MS. Time-dependent adjustments were made for age, history of diseases and drug use.
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Abstract The aim of this cross-sectional study was to develop a Frailty at Risk Scale (FARS) incorporating ten well-known determinants of frailty: age, sex, marital status, ethnicity, education, income, lifestyle, multimorbidity, life events, and home living environment. In addition, a second aim was to develop an online calculator that can easily support healthcare professionals in determining the risk of frailty among community-dwelling older people. The FARS was developed using data of 373 people aged ≥ 75 years. The Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI) was used for assessing frailty. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the determinants multimorbidity, unhealthy lifestyle, and ethnicity (ethnic minority) were the most important predictors. The area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.811 (optimism 0.019, 95% bootstrap CI = −0.029; 0.064). The FARS is offered on a Web site, so that it can be easily used by healthcare professionals, allowing quick intervention in promoting quality of life among community-dwelling older people.
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Falls are common after stroke. This article presents a literature review of the incidence and risk factors of falls and the consequences for professionals working with stroke patients. It is important to consider the specific problems after stroke. Depression and cognitive impairments were found to be risk factors for fall incidents after stroke. In the relevant literature many different risk factors and circumstances are described. When patients move from bed to chair, walk to the bathroom and the first few days after the patient is discharged to another setting, - all these circumstances showed high percentages of falling. A fall during hospital stay is a significant risk factor for future fall incidents. A reliable index to measure the fall risk is not (yet) available. But scores on the Barthel Index and the Timed-Up-and-Go test can be used as fall risk indicators. Fear of falling is an important complication after a fall and therefore it is recommended prior to discharge to inquire about the patients self efficacy in maintaining balance. Few intervention studies use the number of falls as an outcome measure. Exercising balance following a mass training protocol seems to diminish the risk of falling.
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Why are risk decisions sometimes rather irrational and biased than rational and effective? Can we educate and train vocational students and professionals in safety and security management to let them make smarter risk decisions? This paper starts with a theoretical and practical analysis. From research literature and theory we develop a two-phase process model of biased risk decision making, focussing on two critical professional competences: risk intelligence and risk skill. Risk intelligence applies to risk analysis on a mainly cognitive level, whereas risk skill covers the application of risk intelligence in the ultimate phase of risk decision making: whether or not a professional risk manager decides to intervene, how and how well. According to both phases of risk analysis and risk decision making the main problems are described and illustrated with examples from safety and security practice. It seems to be all about systematically biased reckoning and reasoning.
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Both because of the shortcomings of existing risk assessment methodologies, as well as newly available tools to predict hazard and risk with machine learning approaches, there has been an emerging emphasis on probabilistic risk assessment. Increasingly sophisticated AI models can be applied to a plethora of exposure and hazard data to obtain not only predictions for particular endpoints but also to estimate the uncertainty of the risk assessment outcome. This provides the basis for a shift from deterministic to more probabilistic approaches but comes at the cost of an increased complexity of the process as it requires more resources and human expertise. There are still challenges to overcome before a probabilistic paradigm is fully embraced by regulators. Based on an earlier white paper (Maertens et al., 2022), a workshop discussed the prospects, challenges and path forward for implementing such AI-based probabilistic hazard assessment. Moving forward, we will see the transition from categorized into probabilistic and dose-dependent hazard outcomes, the application of internal thresholds of toxicological concern for data-poor substances, the acknowledgement of user-friendly open-source software, a rise in the expertise of toxicologists required to understand and interpret artificial intelligence models, and the honest communication of uncertainty in risk assessment to the public.
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There is emerging evidence that the performance of risk assessment instruments is weaker when used for clinical decision‐making than for research purposes. For instance, research has found lower agreement between evaluators when the risk assessments are conducted during routine practice. We examined the field interrater reliability of the Short‐Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV). Clinicians in a Dutch secure youth care facility completed START:AV assessments as part of the treatment routine. Consistent with previous literature, interrater reliability of the items and total scores was lower than previously reported in non‐field studies. Nevertheless, moderate to good interrater reliability was found for final risk judgments on most adverse outcomes. Field studies provide insights into the actual performance of structured risk assessment in real‐world settings, exposing factors that affect reliability. This information is relevant for those who wish to implement structured risk assessment with a level of reliability that is defensible considering the high stakes.
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