Risk assessment plays an important role in forensic mental health care. The way the conclusions of those risk assessments are communicated varies considerably across instruments. In an effort to make them more comparable, Hanson, R. K., Bourgon, G., McGrath, R., Kroner, D. D., Amora, D. A., Thomas, S. S., & Tavarez, L. P. [2017. A five-level risk and needs system: Maximizing assessment results in corrections through the development of a common language. The Council of State Governments Justice Center. https:// csgjusticecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/A-Five-Level-Risk-and-Needs-system_Report.pdf] developed the Five-Level Risk and Needs System, placing the conclusions of different instruments along five theoretically meaningful levels. The current study explores a Five-Level Risk and Needs system for violent recidivism to which the numerical codings of the HCR-20 Version 2 and its successor, the HCR-20V3 are calibrated, using a combined sample from six previous studies for the HCR-20 Version 2 (n = 411 males with a violent index offence) and a pilot sample for the HCR-20V3 (n = 66 males with a violent index offence). Baselines for the five levels were defined by a combination of theoretical (e.g. expert meetings) and empirical (e.g. literature review) considerations. The calibration of the HCR-20 Version 2 was able to detect four levels, from a combined level I/II to an adjusted level V. The provisional calibration of the HCR-20V3 showed a substantial overlap with the HCR-20 Version 2, with each level boundary having a 2-point difference. Implications for practice and future research are discussed.
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The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between sustainable performance and risk management, whereby sustainability (innovation), interdisciplinarity and leadership give new insights into the traditional perspectives on performance and risk management in the field of accounting and finance.
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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to find determinants about risk resilience and develop a new risk resilience approach for (agricultural) enterprises. This approach creates the ability to respond resiliently to major environmental challenges and changes in the short term and adjust the management of the organization, and to learn and transform to adapt to the new environment in the long term while creating multiple value creation. Design/methodology: The authors present a new risk resilience approach for multiple value creation of (agricultural) enterprises, which consists of a main process starting with strategy design, followed by an environmental analysis, stakeholder collaboration, implement ESG goals, defining risk expose & response options, and report, learn & evaluate. In each step the organizational perspective, as well as the value chain/area perspective is considered and aligned. The authors have used focus groups and analysed literature from and outside the field of finance and accounting, to design this new approach. Findings: Researchers propose a new risk resilience approach for (agricultural) enterprises, based on a narrative about transforming to multiple value creation, founded determinants of risk resilience, competitive advantage and agricultural resilience. Originality and value: This study contributes by conceptualizing risk resilience for (agricultural) enterprises, by looking through a lens of multiple value creation in a dynamic context and based on insights from different fields, actual ESG knowledge, and determinants for risk resilience, competitive advantage and agricultural resilience.
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Toenemende prevalentie van overgewicht en obesitas onder jeugd wordt, in ieder geval ten dele, veroorzaakt door te weinig fysieke activiteit. Omdat ieder kind een groot deel van zijn of haar jeugdige leven op school doorbrengt kunnen scholen een centrale rol spelen in het tegengaan van deze bewegingsarmoede. Het meest voor de hand liggende schoolvak lijkt hierbij de lichamelijke opvoeding1 (LO) te zijn. De belangrijkste doelstelling van het schoolvak LO is immers om leerlingen dusdanig te motiveren en enthousiast te maken voor sport en bewegen zodat dit uiteindelijk resulteert in een actieve leefstijl, zowel buiten school als in het verdere leven. Daarnaast is LO tevens het enige verplichte schoolvak waar fysieke activiteit een centrale plek inneemt; de les zelf is in potentie ook een structurele bron van fysieke activiteit. Globaal gezien kan LO dus op een indirecte en een directe manier bijdragen aan de fysieke activiteit van leerlingen, een tweedeling die werd geïntroduceerd in hoofdstuk 1. Waar echter tot op heden onduidelijkheid over bestaat, zeker wat betreft de Nederlandse situatie, is hoe groot de bijdrage van de LO aan dagelijkse fysieke activiteit feitelijk is. De vraag die daarom centraal staat in dit proefschrift is in hoeverre het vak LO, zoals dat op dit moment gegeven wordt op basis- en voortgezet onderwijs, een bijdrage levert aan de fysieke activiteit van kinderen en adolescenten, zowel direct (de les als bron van fysieke activiteit), als indirect (motivatie voor een actieve leefstijl). Voor de beantwoording van deze vraag zijn een aantal studies uitgevoerd. Allereerst is in hoofdstuk 2 door middel van een literatuurstudie onderzocht in hoeverre interventies met een LO-component effectief zijn in het stimuleren van fysieke activiteit. Hieruit blijkt dat er alleen overtuigend bewijs bestaat voor een directe bijdrage van de les LO aan de fysieke activiteit van kinderen en adolescenten. Oftewel, in de les LO zelf wordt er matig-tot-intensief bewogen. De effecten van interventies met een LO component op de fysieke activiteit buiten school of in het latere leven zijn minder overtuigend of zelfs afwezig. In hoofdstuk 3 wordt een cross-sectionele studie beschreven waarin middels het combineren van gegevens vanuit een hartslag-versnellingsmeter met de gegevens uit een activiteitendagboek voor het eerst inzicht verkregen wordt in de daadwerkelijke bijdrage van een reguliere les LO (naast andere fysieke activiteiten zoals fietsen) aan de totale dagelijkse fysieke activiteit van middelbare scholieren. De resultaten wijzen uit dat 17% van de totale hoeveelheid beweging onder schooltijd zijn oorsprong vindt in de lessen LO en dat op dagen dat een leerling een les LO heeft, deze les verantwoordelijk is voor ongeveer 30% van de totale fysieke activiteit op die dag. Opvallend is daarnaast dat 15% van de totale fysieke activiteit op een weekdag zijn oorsprong vindt in het actief transport naar school, voornamelijk fietsen. Hoofdstuk 4 beschrijft een studie waarin de focus ligt op de intensiteit van lessen LO in het voortgezet onderwijs (VO) en het basisonderwijs (BO). Tevens is gekeken naar factoren die de intensiteit van een les beïnvloeden. De resultaten wijzen uit dat 47% en 40% van een les LO op respectievelijk het VO en het BO voldoet aan de intensiteit van bewegen zoals omschreven in de Nederlandse Norm voor Gezond Bewegen (matig-tot-intensief fysiek actief). Dit komt overeen met ongeveer een derde van de dagelijks aanbevolen hoeveelheid beweging voor deze doelgroep. Opvallend is dat op het VO jongens significant actiever zijn tijdens de lessen LO dan meisjes. Dit verschil blijkt zijn oorsprong te hebben in lessen waarin competitieve spelvormen (basketbal, voetbal etc.) centraal staan. Mogelijkerwijs verhindert de dominantie van jongens tijdens spelvormen dat meisjes in een les even actief kunnen zijn als jongens. Dit is een serieuze beperking van de mate waarin een les LO kan bijdragen aan het totale beweeggedrag van meisjes, gezien het feit dat ongeveer 60% van het Nederlandse LO curriculum uit (veelal competitieve) spelvormen bestaat.
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Abstract: Since the first Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancer’s results were published, people have become more aware of the risks associated with prenatal exposure from diagnostic x rays. As a result, it has since been the subject of many studies. In this review, the results of recent epidemiological studies are summarized. The current international guidelines for diagnostic x-ray examinations were compared to the review. All epidemiological studies starting from 2007 and all relevant international guidelines were included. Apart from one study that involved rhabdomyosarcoma, no statistically significant associations were found between prenatal exposure to x rays and the development of cancer during 2007–2020. Most of the studies were constrained in their design due to too small a cohort or number of cases, minimal x-ray exposure, and/or data obtained from the exposed mothers instead of medical reports. In one of the studies, computed tomography exposure was also included, and this requires more and longer follow-up in successive studies. Most international guidelines are comparable, provide risk coefficients that are quite conservative, and discourage abdominal examinations of pregnant women.
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Both because of the shortcomings of existing risk assessment methodologies, as well as newly available tools to predict hazard and risk with machine learning approaches, there has been an emerging emphasis on probabilistic risk assessment. Increasingly sophisticated AI models can be applied to a plethora of exposure and hazard data to obtain not only predictions for particular endpoints but also to estimate the uncertainty of the risk assessment outcome. This provides the basis for a shift from deterministic to more probabilistic approaches but comes at the cost of an increased complexity of the process as it requires more resources and human expertise. There are still challenges to overcome before a probabilistic paradigm is fully embraced by regulators. Based on an earlier white paper (Maertens et al., 2022), a workshop discussed the prospects, challenges and path forward for implementing such AI-based probabilistic hazard assessment. Moving forward, we will see the transition from categorized into probabilistic and dose-dependent hazard outcomes, the application of internal thresholds of toxicological concern for data-poor substances, the acknowledgement of user-friendly open-source software, a rise in the expertise of toxicologists required to understand and interpret artificial intelligence models, and the honest communication of uncertainty in risk assessment to the public.
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There is emerging evidence that the performance of risk assessment instruments is weaker when used for clinical decision‐making than for research purposes. For instance, research has found lower agreement between evaluators when the risk assessments are conducted during routine practice. We examined the field interrater reliability of the Short‐Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV). Clinicians in a Dutch secure youth care facility completed START:AV assessments as part of the treatment routine. Consistent with previous literature, interrater reliability of the items and total scores was lower than previously reported in non‐field studies. Nevertheless, moderate to good interrater reliability was found for final risk judgments on most adverse outcomes. Field studies provide insights into the actual performance of structured risk assessment in real‐world settings, exposing factors that affect reliability. This information is relevant for those who wish to implement structured risk assessment with a level of reliability that is defensible considering the high stakes.
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BACKGROUND: Most studies on multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents have cross-sectionally studied a limited number of health behaviors or determinants.PURPOSE: To examine the prevalence, longitudinal patterns and predictors of individual and multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents.METHODS: Eight health risk behaviors (no regular consumption of fruit, vegetables or breakfast, overweight or obesity, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol use and cannabis use) were assessed in a prospective population study (second and third wave). Participants were assessed in three waves between ages 10 and 17 (2001-2008; n=2230). Multiple linear regression was used to assess the influence of gender, self-control, parental health risk behaviors, parental monitoring and socioeconomic factors on the number of health risk behaviors adjusted for preceding multiple health risk behaviors (analysis: 2013-2014).RESULTS: Rates of >5 health risk behaviors were high: 3.6% at age 13.5 and 10.2% at age 16. Smoking at age 13.5 was frequently associated with health risk behaviors at age 16. No regular consumption of fruit, vegetables and breakfast, overweight or obesity, physical inactivity and smoking predicted the co-occurrence of health risk behaviors at follow-up. Significant predictors of the development of multiple health risk behaviors were adolescents' levels of self-control, socioeconomic status and maternal smoking.CONCLUSIONS: Multiple health risk behaviors are common among adolescents. Individual and social factors predict changes in multiple health risk behaviors, showing that prevention targeting multiple risk behaviors is needed. Special attention should be paid to adolescents with low self-control and families with low socioeconomic status or a mother who smokes.
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Within recent years, Financial Credit Risk Assessment (FCRA) has become an increasingly important issue within the financial industry. Therefore, the search for features that can predict the credit risk of an organization has increased. Using multiple statistical techniques, a variance of features has been proposed. Applying a structured literature review, 258 papers have been selected. From the selected papers, 835 features have been identified. The features have been analyzed with respect to the type of feature, the information sources needed and the type of organization that applies the features. Based on the results of the analysis, the features have been plotted in the FCRA Model. The results show that most features focus on hard information from a transactional source, based on official information with a high latency. In this paper, we readdress and -present our earlier work [1]. We extended the previous research with more detailed descriptions of the related literature, findings, and results, which provides a grounded basis from which further research on FCRA can be conducted.
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BACKGROUND: Frailty is often associated with multimorbidity and disability. OBJECTIVES: We investigated heterogeneity in the frail older population by characterizing five subpopulations according to quantitative biological markers, multimorbidity and disability, and examined their association with mortality and nursing home admission. DESIGN: Observational study. PARTICIPANTS: Participants (n=4,414) were from the population-based Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study. MEASUREMENTS: Frailty was defined by ≥ 3 of five characteristics: weight loss, weakness, reduced energy levels, slowness and physical inactivity. Multimorbidity was assessed using a simple disease count, based on 13 prevalent conditions. Disability was assessed by five activities of daily living; participants who had difficulty with one or more tasks were considered disabled. Differences among frail subpopulations were based on the co-presence of multimorbidity and disability. Differences among the following subpopulations were examined: 1) Non-frail (reference group); 2) Frail only; 3) Frail with disability; 4) Frailty with multimorbidity; 5) Frail with disability and multimorbidity. RESULTS: Frailty was present in 10.7% (n=473). Frailty was associated with increased risk for mortality (OR 1.40; 95% CI 1.15-1.69) and nursing home admission (OR 1.50; 95% CI 1.16-1.93); risks differed by subpopulations. Compared to the non-frail, the frail only group had poorer cognition and increased inflammation levels but did not have increased risk for mortality (OR 1.40; 95% CI 0.84-2.33) or nursing home admission (OR 1.01; 95% CI 0.46-2.21). Compared to the non-frail, the other frail subpopulations had significantly poorer cognition, increased inflammation levels, more white matter lesions, higher levels of calcium, glucose and red cell distribution width and increased risk for mortality and nursing home admission. CONCLUSIONS: The adverse health risks associated with frailty in the general older adult population may primarily be driven by increased disease burden and disability.
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