The viability of novel network-level circular business models (CBMs) is debated heavily. Many companies are hesitant to implement CBMs in their daily practice, because of the various roles, stakes and opinions and the resulting uncertainties. Testing novel CBMs prior to implementation is needed. Some scholars have used digital simulation models to test elements of business models, but this this has not yet been done systematically for CBMs. To address this knowledge gap, this paper presents a systematic iterative method to explore and improve CBMs prior to actual implementation by means of agent-based modelling and simulation. An agent-based model (ABM) was co-created with case study participants in three Industrial Symbiosis networks. The ABM was used to simulate and explore the viability effects of two CBMs in different scenarios. The simulation results show which CBM in combination with which scenario led to the highest network survival rate and highest value captured. In addition, we were able to explore the influence of design options and establish a design that is correlated to the highest CBM viability. Based on these findings, concrete proposals were made to further improve the CBM design, from company level to network level. This study thus contributes to the development of systematic CBM experimentation methods. The novel approach provided in this work shows that agent-based modelling and simulation is a powerful method to study and improve circular business models prior to implementation.
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Industrial Symbiosis Networks (ISNs) consist of firms that exchange residual materials and energy locally, in order to gain economic, environmental and/or social advantages. In practice, ISNs regularly fail when partners leave and the recovery of residual streams ends. Regarding the current societal need for a shift towards sustainability, it is undesirable that ISNs should fail. Failures of ISNs may be caused by actor behaviour that leads to unanticipated economic losses. In this paper, we explore the effect of these behaviours on ISN robustness by using an agent-based model (ABM). The constructed model is based on insights from both literature and participatory modelling in three real-world cases. It simulates the implementation of synergies for local waste exchange and compost production. The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) was used to model agent behaviour in time-dependent bilateral negotiations and synergy evaluation processes. We explored model behaviour with and without TPB logic across a range of possible TPB input variables. The simulation results show how the modelled planned behaviour affects the cash flow outcomes of the social agents and the robustness of the network. The study contributes to the theoretical development of industrial symbiosis research by providing a quantitative model of all ISN implementation stages, in which various behavioural patterns of entrepreneurs are included. It also contributes to practice by offering insights on how network dynamics and robustness outcomes are not only related to context and ISN design, but also to actor behaviour.
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Efficiency of city logistics activities suffers due to conflicting personal preferences and distributed decision making by multiple city logistics stakeholders. This is exacerbated by interdependency of city logistics activities, decision making with limited information and stakeholders’ preference for personal objectives over system efficiency. Accordingly, the key to understanding the causes of inefficiency in the city logistics domain is understanding the interaction between heterogeneous stakeholders of the system. With the capabilities of representing a system in a natural and flexible way, agent based modelling (ABM) is a promising alternative for the city logistics domain. This research focuses on developing a framework for the successful implementation of the ABM approach for the city logistics domain. The framework includes various elements – a multi-perspective semantic data model (i.e. ontology) and its validation, the development of an agent base model using this ontology, and a validation approach for the agent-based model. Conclusively, the framework shows that a rigorous course can be taken to successfully implement agent based modelling approach for the city logistics domain.
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This research contributes to understanding and shaping systems for OFMSW separation at urban Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs, such as offices, shops and service providers). Separating SMEs’ organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) is both an opportunity and a serious challenge for the transition towards circular cities. It is an opportunity because OFMSW represents approximately 40% of the total waste mass generated by these companies. It is challenging because post-collection separation is not feasible for OFMSW. Therefore, SMEs disposing of waste should separate their solid waste so that processing the organic fraction for reuse and recycling is practical and attainable. However, these companies do not experience direct advantages from the extra efforts in separating waste, and much of the OFMSW ends up in landfills, often resulting in unnecessary GHG emissions. Therefore, governments and waste processors are looking for ways to improve the OFMSW separation degree by urban companies disposing of waste through policies for behaviour change.There are multiple types of personnel at companies disposing of waste. These co-workers act according to their values, beliefs and norms. They adapt their behaviour continuously, influenced by the physical environment, events over time and self-evaluation of their actions. Therefore, waste separation at companies can be regarded as a Socio-Technical Complex Adaptive System (STCAS). Agent-based modelling and simulation are powerful methods to help understand STCAS. Consequently, we have created an agent-based model representing the evolution of behaviour regarding waste separation at companies in the urban environment. The model aims to show public and private stakeholders involved in solid waste collection, transport and processing to what extent behaviour change policies can shape the system towards desired waste separation degrees.We have co-created the model with participants utilising literature and empirical data from a case study on the transition of the waste collection system of a business park located at a former harbour area in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. First, a conceptual model of the system and the environment was set up through participatory workshops, surveys and interviews with stakeholders, domain experts and relevant actors. Together with our case participants, five policies that affect waste separation behaviour were included in the model. To model the behaviour of each company worker’s values, beliefs and norms during the separation and disposal of OFMSW, we have used the Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) Theory by Stern et al. (1999). We have collected data on waste collection behaviour and separation rates through interviews, workshops and a literature study to operationalise and validate the model.Simulation results show how combinations of behaviour profiles affect waste separation rates. Furthermore, findings show that single waste separation policies are often limitedly capable of changing the behaviour in the system. Rather, a combination of information and communication policies is needed to improve the separation of OFMSW, i.e., dissemination of a newsletter, providing personal feedback to the co-workers disposing of waste, and sharing information on the (improvement of) recycling rates.This study contributes to a better understanding of how policies can support co-workers’ pro-environmental behaviour for organic waste separation rates at SMEs. Thus, it shows policymakers how to stimulate the circular transition by actively engaging co-workers’ waste separation behaviour at SMEs. Future work will extend the model’s purpose by including households and policies supporting separating multiple waste types aimed at various R-strategies proposed by Potting et al. (2016).
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Algorithmic curation is a helpful solution for the massive amount of content on the web. The term is used to describe how platforms automate the recommendation of content to users. News outlets, social networks and search engines widely use recommendation systems. Such automation has led to worries about selective exposure and its side effects. Echo chambers occur when we are over-exposed to the news we like or agree with, distorting our perception of reality (1). Filter bubbles arise where the information we dislike or disagree with is automatically filtered out – narrowing what we know (2). While the idea of Filter Bubbles makes logical sense, the magnitude of the "filter bubble effect", reducing diversity, has been questioned [3]. Most empirical studies indicate that algorithmic recommendations have not locked large audience segments into bubbles [4]. However, little attention has been paid to the interplay between technological, social, and cognitive filters. We proposed an Agent-based Modelling to simulate users' emergent behaviour and track their opinions when getting news from news outlets and social networks. The model aims to understand under which circumstances algorithmic filtering and social network dynamics affect users' innate opinions and which interventions can mitigate the effect. Agent-based models simulate the behaviour of multiple individual agents forming a larger society. The behaviour of the individual agents can be elementary, yet the population's behaviour can be much more than the sum of its parts. We have designed different scenarios to analyse the contributing factors to the emergence of filter bubbles. It includes different recommendation algorithms and social network dynamics. Cognitive filters are based on the Triple Filter Bubble model [5].References1.Richard Fletcher, 20202.Eli Pariser, 20123.Chitra & Musco, 20204. Möller et al., 20185. Daniel Geschke et al, 2018
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Waste separation at companies is considered a priority to achieve a circular and sustainable society. This research explores behaviour change poli-cies for separating the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) at Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), particularly in cities. At SMEs, co-work-ers are responsible for waste disposal. Therefore, their behavioural intention to-wards pro-environmental action plays a major role. In this study, we have used agent-based modelling and simulation to explore the waste behaviour of the ac-tors in the system. The models were co-created in participatory workshops, sur-veys and interviews with stakeholders, domain experts and relevant actors. Ad-ditionally, we co-created and tested practical social and technical interventions with the model. We used the collaborative modelling method Lange reported to conceptualise, implement, test and validate the models. Five policies that affect waste separation behaviour were included in the model. The model and simula-tion results were cross-validated with the help of a literature study. The results were validated through experts and historical data to sketch a generalisable idea of networks with similar characteristics. These results indicate that combinations of behaviour profiles and certain policy interventions correlate with waste sepa-ration rates. In addition, individual waste separation policies are often limitedly capable of changing the behaviour in the system. The study also shows that the intention of co-workers concerning environmental behaviour can significantly impact waste separation rates. Future work will include the role of households, policies supporting separating multiple waste types, and the effect of waste sep-aration on various R-strategies.
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This paper describes an agent-based software infrastructure for agile industrial production. This production is done on special devices called equiplets. A grid of these equiplets connected by a fast network is capable of producing a variety of different products in parallel. The multi-agent-based underlying systems uses two kinds of agents: an agent representing the product and an agent representing the equiplet.
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Author supplied: A manufacturing process can be described by a sequence or combination of production steps. Based on this approach a manufacturing system has been developed that is capable to produce several different products in parallel. A batch size of one unit is possible and the production is pull-driven. The manufacturing system is based on agent technology and a special so-called product agent collects information about the assembly process. This agent will be connected to the actual product and can guide the disassembly process at the end of the products life. The agent will show the inverse steps to be taken to take a product apart. This approach can be used in the agent based manufacturing process described in this paper but the concept can also be used for other manufacturing systems. The paper discusses the possibilities as well as the restrictions of the method proposed here.
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Deployment and management of environmental infrastructures, such as charging infrastructure for Electric Vehicles (EV), is a challenging task. For policy makers, it is particularly difficult to estimate the capacity of current deployed public charging infrastructure for a given EV user population. While data analysis of charging data has shown added value for monitoring EV systems, it is not valid to linearly extrapolate charging infrastructure performance when increasing population size.We developed a data-driven agent-based model that can explore future scenarios to identify non-trivial dynamics that may be caused by EV user interaction, such as competition or collaboration, and that may affect performance metrics. We validated the model by comparing EV user activity patterns in time and space.We performed stress tests on the 4 largest cities the Netherlands to explore the capacity of the existing charging network. Our results demonstrate that (i) a non-linear relation exists between system utilization and inconvenience even at the base case; (ii) from 2.5x current population, the occupancy of non-habitual charging increases at the expense of habitual users, leading to an expected decline of occupancy for habitual users; and (iii) from a ratio of 0.6 non-habitual users to habitual users competition effects intensify. For the infrastructure to which the stress test is applied, a ratio of approximately 0.6 may indicate a maximum allowed ratio that balances performance with inconvenience. For policy makers, this implies that when they see diminishing marginal performance of KPIs in their monitoring reports, they should be aware of potential exponential increase of inconvenience for EV users.
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In Eastern Africa, increasing climate variability and changing socioeconomic conditions are exacerbating the frequency and intensity of drought disasters. Droughts pose a severe threat to food security in this region, which is characterized by a large dependency on smallholder rain-fed agriculture and a low level of technological development in the food production systems. Future drought risk will be determined by the adaptation choices made by farmers, yet few drought risk models … incorporate adaptive behavior in the estimation of drought risk. Here, we present an innovative dynamic drought risk adaptation model, ADOPT, to evaluate the factors that influence adaptation decisions and the subsequent adoption of measures, and how this affects drought risk for agricultural production. ADOPT combines socio-hydrological and agent-based modeling approaches by coupling the FAO crop model AquacropOS with a behavioral model capable of simulating different adaptive behavioral theories. In this paper, we compare the protection motivation theory, which describes bounded rationality, with a business-as-usual and an economic rational adaptive behavior. The inclusion of these scenarios serves to evaluate and compare the effect of different assumptions about adaptive behavior on the evolution of drought risk over time. Applied to a semi-arid case in Kenya, ADOPT is parameterized using field data collected from 250 households in the Kitui region and discussions with local decision-makers. The results show that estimations of drought risk and the need for emergency food aid can be improved using an agent-based approach: we show that ignoring individual household characteristics leads to an underestimation of food-aid needs. Moreover, we show that the bounded rational scenario is better able to reflect historic food security, poverty levels, and crop yields. Thus, we demonstrate that the reality of complex human adaptation decisions can best be described assuming bounded rational adaptive behavior; furthermore, an agent-based approach and the choice of adaptation theory matter when quantifying risk and estimating emergency aid needs.
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