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Research results of a new combined method in climate adaptation

The perceived weather and climate change risks in Dutch agriculture

Purpose: This study analyses how weather shocks influence agricultural entrepreneurs’ risk perception and how they manage these risks. It explores what risks agricultural entrepreneurs perceive as important, and how they face climate change and related weather shock risks compared to the multiple risks of the enterprise. Design/methodology: This paper uses qualitative data from several sources: eight semi-structured interviews with experts in agriculture, three focus groups with experts and entrepreneurs, and 32 semi-structured interviews with agricultural entrepreneurs. Findings: not published yet Originality and value: This study contributes to the literature about risk management by small- and medium-sized agricultural enterprises: it studies factors that shape perceptions about weather shocks and about climate change and how these perceptions affect actions to manage related risks, and it identifies factors that motivate agricultural entrepreneurs to adapt to climate change and changing weather shock risks. Practical implications can lay the foundation for concrete actions and policies to improve the resilience and sustainability of the sector, by adjusting risk management strategies, collaboration, knowledge sharing, and climate adaptation policy support.

The Impact of Future Climate Change and Human Activities on Hydro-climatological Drought, Analysis and Projections

Both climate change and human activity are the important drivers that can change hydrological cycle routs and affect the features of hydrological drought in river basins. The current study selects the Zayandeh Rud river Basin as a case study region in which to evaluate the influences of climate alteration and human activity on meteorological and hydrological drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) on different time scales. The generated local climatic data of future years (2006–2040), (2041–2075) and (2076–2100) under the severest scenario (RCP 8.5) from the CMIP5 climate model are selected and used for the hydrology model and water allocation model of WEAP to construct hydrological drought which also consider human activities. The results indicate that significant meteorological drought is expected to occur in the winter and spring months of January to June. However, the driest month for hydrological drought is in the summer and autumn (July to December) (e.g. no changes in seasonality of droughts compared to historic period). It is concluded that, in the results of this work, the human influences on projected hydrological drought have been outlined; they had been missed in many projections for future hydrological drought. However, this study confirms the previous study (Bierkens et al. 2012) which mentioned that human influences can account for future hydrological drought in areas of Asia, the Middle East and the Mediterranean. The results attained in this study are beneficial for examining how hydrological drought characterizations respond to climate alteration and human activity on several time scales, thereby providing scientific information for drought predicting and water resources management over various time scales under non-stationary circumstances.

Climate futures

This paper introduces and contextualises Climate Futures, an experiment in which AI was repurposed as a ‘co-author’ of climate stories and a co-designer of climate-related images that facilitate reflections on present and future(s) of living with climate change. It converses with histories of writing and computation, including surrealistic ‘algorithmic writing’, recombinatory poems and ‘electronic literature’. At the core lies a reflection about how machine learning’s associative, predictive and regenerative capacities can be employed in playful, critical and contemplative goals. Our goal is not automating writing (as in product-oriented applications of AI). Instead, as poet Charles Hartman argues, ‘the question isn’t exactly whether a poet or a computer writes the poem, but what kinds of collaboration might be interesting’ (1996, p. 5). STS scholars critique labs as future-making sites and machine learning modelling practices and, for example, describe them also as fictions. Building on these critiques and in line with ‘critical technical practice’ (Agre, 1997), we embed our critique of ‘making the future’ in how we employ machine learning to design a tool for looking ahead and telling stories on life with climate change. This has involved engaging with climate narratives and machine learning from the critical and practical perspectives of artistic research. We trained machine learning algorithms (i.e. GPT-2 and AttnGAN) using climate fiction novels (as a dataset of cultural imaginaries of the future). We prompted them to produce new climate fiction stories and images, which we edited to create a tarot-like deck and a story-book, thus also playfully engaging with machine learning’s predictive associations. The tarot deck is designed to facilitate conversations about climate change. How to imagine the future beyond scenarios of resilience and the dystopian? How to aid our transition into different ways of caring for the planet and each other?

Research results of a new governance method in climate adaptation

Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change and there is an urgent need to become more resilient. This research involves the development of the City Climate Scan methodology to measure, map, scan and assess different parameters that provide insight into the vulnerability of urban areas and neighborhoods. The research involved the development of a set of measurement tools that can be applied in different urban neighborhoods in a low-cost low-tech approach with teams of stakeholders and practitioners. The City Climate Scan method was tested in different cities around the globe with groups of young professionals and stakeholders in rapid urban appraisals.For the Rotterdam City Climate Scan (September 2017), the following challenges were selected: risk of flooding, heat stress, water quality (micro-pollutants and plastic waste) and air quality. The Rotterdam climate scan is evaluated with their triple helix partners (public, private and academic partners). The conclusion is that the City Climate Scan approach helps policy makers and practitioners to gather valuable data for decision makers in a rapid appraisal at the neighborhood and city level. The results of the City Climate Scan methodprovides insights, creates awareness and brings together stakeholders. The most valuable deliverable is the concrete and tangible results. The participatory approach brings residents and practitioners together and provides insight into local problems, while at the same time the method facilitates the collection of valuable data about the robustness of neighborhoods. As a result of this positive evaluation, the City Climate Scan will be up scaled to a number of cities in Europe and Asia in the upcoming months.

Research results of a new combined method in climate adaptation

Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable for climate change and there is an urgent needto become more resilient. This research involves the development of the City climate scanRotterdam (September 2017) methodology to measure, map, scan and assess differentparameters that together give insight in the vulnerability of urban areas and neighborhoods.The research at recent City climate scan / Sketch your city in April 2018 used storytelling andsketching1 as main method to connect stakeholders, motivate action, evoke recognition in ajointly formulated goal, such as taking climate action. The city climate scan also involved thedevelopment of a set of measurement tools that can be applied in different urbanneighborhoods in a low-cost low-tech approach with teams of stakeholders andpractitioners. The city climate scan method was tested in different cities around the globe(Rotterdam, Manila and Cebu) in groups of young professionals and stakeholders in rapidurban appraisals.