We summarize what we assess as the past year's most important findings within climate change research: limits to adaptation, vulnerability hotspots, new threats coming from the climate–health nexus, climate (im)mobility and security, sustainable practices for land use and finance, losses and damages, inclusive societal climate decisions and ways to overcome structural barriers to accelerate mitigation and limit global warming to below 2°C.
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European Union’s vulnerability to climate change stretches far beyond its borders because many of its economic sectors, such as meat and dairy, use raw materials sourced from far afield. Cross-border climate vulnerability is a relatively new subject in scientific literature, while of high societal and economic relevance. We quantify these climate vulnerabilities with a focus on drought risk and assessed them for 2030, 2050, 2085 and for RCP 2.6 and 6.0 climate scenarios. Here we find that more than 44% of the EU agricultural imports will become highly vulnerable to drought in future because of climate change. The drought severity in production locations of the agricultural imports in 2050 will increase by 35% compared to current levels of drought severity. This is particularly valid for imports that originate from Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, India and Turkey. At the same time, imports from Russia, Nigeria, Peru, Ecuador, Uganda and Kenya will be less vulnerable in future. We also report that the climate vulnerabilities of meat and dairy, chocolate (cocoa), coffee, palm oil-based food and cosmetic sectors mainly lie outside the EU borders rather than inside.
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Coastal nourishments, where sand from offshore is placed near or at the beach, are nowadays a key coastal protection method for narrow beaches and hinterlands worldwide. Recent sea level rise projections and the increasing involvement of multiple stakeholders in adaptation strategies have resulted in a desire for nourishment solutions that fit a larger geographical scale (O 10 km) and a longer time horizon (O decades). Dutch frontrunner pilot experiments such as the Sandmotor and Ameland inlet nourishment, as well as the Hondsbossche Dunes coastal reinforcement project have all been implemented from this perspective, with the specific aim to encompass solutions that fit in a renewed climate-resilient coastal protection strategy. By capitalizing on recent large-scale nourishments, the proposed Coastal landSCAPE project C-SCAPE will employ and advance the newly developed Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach to construct a sustainable long-term nourishment strategy in the face of an uncertain future, linking climate and landscape scales to benefits for nature and society. Novel long-term sandy solutions will be examined using this pathways method, identifying tipping points that may exist if distinct strategies are being continued. Crucial elements for the construction of adaptive pathways are 1) a clear view on the long-term feasibility of different nourishment alternatives, and 2) solid, science-based quantification methods for integral evaluation of the social, economic, morphological and ecological outcomes of various pathways. As currently both elements are lacking, we propose to erect a Living Lab for Climate Adaptation within the C-SCAPE project. In this Living Lab, specific attention is paid to the socio-economic implications of the nourished landscape, as we examine how morphological and ecological development of the large-scale nourishment strategies and their design choices (e.g. concentrated vs alongshore uniform, subaqueous vs subaerial, geomorphological features like artificial lagoons) translate to social acceptance.
Client: Foundation Innovation Alliance (SIA - Stichting Innovatie Alliantie) with funding from the ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW) Funder: RAAK (Regional Attention and Action for Knowledge circulation) The RAAK scheme is managed by the Foundation Innovation Alliance (SIA - Stichting Innovatie Alliantie) with funding from the ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW). Early 2013 the Centre for Sustainable Tourism and Transport started work on the RAAK-MKB project ‘Carbon management for tour operators’ (CARMATOP). Besides NHTV, eleven Dutch SME tour operators, ANVR, HZ University of Applied Sciences, Climate Neutral Group and ECEAT initially joined this 2-year project. The consortium was later extended with IT-partner iBuildings and five more tour operators. The project goal of CARMATOP was to develop and test new knowledge about the measurement of tour package carbon footprints and translate this into a simple application which allows tour operators to integrate carbon management into their daily operations. By doing this Dutch tour operators are international frontrunners.Why address the carbon footprint of tour packages?Global tourism contribution to man-made CO2 emissions is around 5%, and all scenarios point towards rapid growth of tourism emissions, whereas a reverse development is required in order to prevent climate change exceeding ‘acceptable’ boundaries. Tour packages have a high long-haul and aviation content, and the increase of this type of travel is a major factor in tourism emission growth. Dutch tour operators recognise their responsibility, and feel the need to engage in carbon management.What is Carbon management?Carbon management is the strategic management of emissions in one’s business. This is becoming more important for businesses, also in tourism, because of several economical, societal and political developments. For tour operators some of the most important factors asking for action are increasing energy costs, international aviation policy, pressure from society to become greener, increasing demand for green trips, and the wish to obtain a green image and become a frontrunner among consumers and colleagues in doing so.NetworkProject management was in the hands of the Centre for Sustainable Tourism and Transport (CSTT) of NHTV Breda University of Applied Sciences. CSTT has 10 years’ experience in measuring tourism emissions and developing strategies to mitigate emissions, and enjoys an international reputation in this field. The ICT Associate Professorship of HZ University of Applied Sciences has longstanding expertise in linking varying databases of different organisations. Its key role in CARMATOP was to create the semantic wiki for the carbon calculator, which links touroperator input with all necessary databases on carbon emissions. Web developer ibuildings created the Graphical User Interface; the front end of the semantic wiki. ANVR, the Dutch Association of Travel Agents and Tour operators, represents 180 tour operators and 1500 retail agencies in the Netherlands, and requires all its members to meet a minimum of sustainable practices through a number of criteria. ANVR’s role was in dissemination, networking and ensuring CARMATOP products will last. Climate Neutral Group’s experience with sustainable entrepreneurship and knowledge about carbon footprint (mitigation), and ECEAT’s broad sustainable tourism network, provided further essential inputs for CARMATOP. Finally, most of the eleven tour operators are sustainable tourism frontrunners in the Netherlands, and are the driving forces behind this project.
In recent years, disasters are increasing in numbers, location, intensity and impact; they have become more unpredictable due to climate change, raising questions about disaster preparedness and management. Attempts by government entities at limiting the impact of disasters are insufficient, awareness and action are urgently needed at the citizen level to create awareness, develop capacity, facilitate implementation of management plans and to coordinate local action at times of uncertainty. We need a cultural and behavioral change to create resilient citizens, communities, and environments. To develop and maintain new ways of thinking has to start by anticipating long-term bottom-up resilience and collaborations. We propose to develop a serious game on a physical tabletop that allows individuals and communities to work with a moderator and to simulate disasters and individual and collective action in their locality, to mimic real-world scenarios using game mechanics and to train trainers. Two companies–Stratsims, a company specialized in game development, and Society College, an organization that aims to strengthen society, combine their expertise as changemakers. They work with Professor Carola Hein (TU Delft), who has developed knowledge about questions of disaster and rebuilding worldwide and the conditions for meaningful and long-term disaster preparedness. The partners have already reached out to relevant communities in Amsterdam and the Netherlands, including UNUN, a network of Ukrainians in the Netherlands. Jaap de Goede, an experienced strategy simulation expert, will lead outreach activities in diverse communities to train trainers and moderate workshops. This game will be highly relevant for citizens to help grow awareness and capacity for preparing for and coping with disasters in a bottom-up fashion. The toolkit will be available for download and printing open access, and for purchase. The team will offer training and facilitate workshops working with local communities to initiate bottom-up change in policy making and planning.
