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Collaboration in the local DHC-chain: A bottom-up integrated framework fostering broad-based solutions

The sustainable energy transition asks for new and innovative solutions in the way society, government, energy market and clients (end users) approach energy distribution and consumption. The energy transition provides great opportunity to develop innovative solutions where in the dense built environment district heating and cooling are being strongly advocated.Traditionally, the energy systems in urban districts have been regulated by a top-down approach. With the rise of local and distributed sustainable sources for urban heating and cooling, the complexity of the heat/cold chain is increasing. Therefore, an organic and bottom-up approach is being requested, where the public authorities have a facilitating and/or directive role. There is a need for a new and open framework for collaboration between stakeholders. A framework that provides insight into the integral consideration of heating and cooling solutions on district level in terms of: organisation, technology and economy (OTE). This research therefore focuses on developing this integral framework towards widely supported heating and cooling solutions among district stakeholders.Through in-depth interviews, workshops and focus groups discussions, relevant stakeholders in local district heating/cooling of varying backgrounds and expertise have been consulted. This has led to two pillars in a framework. Firstly the definition of Key Success Factors and Key Performance Indicators to evaluate technical solutions in light of the respective context. Secondly, an iterative decision making process among district stakeholders where technical scenarios, respective financial business cases and market organisation are being negotiated. Fundamental proposition of the framework is the recurrent interaction between OTE factors throughout the entire decision making process. In order to constantly assure broad-based support, the underlying nature of possible barriers for collaboration are identified in a stakeholder matrix, informing a stakeholder strategy. It reveals an open insight of the interests, concerns, and barriers among all stakeholders, where solutions can be developed effectively.

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Collaboration in the local DHC-chain: A bottom-up integrated framework fostering broad-based solutions

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P&ID-based automated fault identification for energy performance diagnosis in HVAC systems:

Current methods for energy diagnosis in heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are not consistent with process and instrumentation diagrams (P&IDs) as used by engineers to design and operate these systems, leading to very limited application of energy performance diagnosis in practice. In a previous paper, a generic reference architecture – hereafter referred to as the 4S3F (four symptoms and three faults) framework – was developed. Because it is closely related to the way HVAC experts diagnose problems in HVAC installations, 4S3F largely overcomes the problem of limited application. The present article addresses the fault diagnosis process using automated fault identification (AFI) based on symptoms detected with a diagnostic Bayesian network (DBN). It demonstrates that possible faults can be extracted from P&IDs at different levels and that P&IDs form the basis for setting up effective DBNs. The process was applied to real sensor data for a whole year. In a case study for a thermal energy plant, control faults were successfully isolated using balance, energy performance and operational state symptoms. Correction of the isolated faults led to annual primary energy savings of 25%. An analysis showed that the values of set probabilities in the DBN model are not outcome-sensitive. Link to the formal publication via its DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.110289

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P&ID-based automated fault identification for energy performance diagnosis in HVAC systems:

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Global warming

Research Questions • What are the characteristics of vulnerable populations in The Hague? • What are their needs in order to adapt to heatwaves, and how do they cope? • What are existing sustainable solutions for protecting vulnerable populations? • How can the municipality of The Hague increase urban resilience with regards to heat?

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Design of wind and solar energy supply, to match energy demand

Renewable energy sources have an intermittent character that does not necessarily match energy demand. Such imbalances tend to increase system cost as they require mitigation measures and this is undesirable when available resources should be focused on increasing renewable energy supply. Matching supply and demand should therefore be inherent to early stages of system design, to avoid mismatch costs to the greatest extent possible and we need guidelines for that. This paper delivers such guidelines by exploring design of hybrid wind and solar energy and unusual large solar installation angles. The hybrid wind and solar energy supply and energy demand is studied with an analytical analysis of average monthly energy yields in The Netherlands, Spain and Britain, capacity factor statistics and a dynamic energy supply simulation. The analytical focus in this paper differs from that found in literature, where analyses entirely rely on simulations. Additionally, the seasonal energy yield profile of solar energy at large installation angles is studied with the web application PVGIS and an hourly simulation of the energy yield, based on the Perez model. In Europe, the energy yield of solar PV peaks during the summer months and the energy yield of wind turbines is highest during the winter months. As a consequence, three basic hybrid supply profiles, based on three different mix ratios of wind to solar PV, can be differentiated: a heating profile with high monthly energy yield during the winter months, a flat or baseload profile and a cooling profile with high monthly energy yield during the summer months. It is shown that the baseload profile in The Netherlands is achieved at a ratio of wind to solar energy yield and power of respectively Ew/Es = 1.7 and Pw/Ps = 0.6. The baseload ratio for Spain and Britain is comparable because of similar seasonal weather patterns, so that this baseload ratio is likely comparable for other European countries too. In addition to the seasonal benefits, the hybrid mix is also ideal for the short-term as wind and solar PV adds up to a total that has fewer energy supply flaws and peaks than with each energy source individually and it is shown that they are seldom (3%) both at rated power. This allows them to share one cable, allowing “cable pooling”, with curtailment to -for example-manage cable capacity. A dynamic simulation with the baseload mix supply and a flat demand reveals that a 100% and 75% yearly energy match cause a curtailment loss of respectively 6% and 1%. Curtailment losses of the baseload mix are thereby shown to be small. Tuning of the energy supply of solar panels separately is also possible. Compared to standard 40◦ slope in The Netherlands, facade panels have smaller yield during the summer months, but almost equal yield during the rest of the year, so that the total yield adds up to 72% of standard 40◦ slope panels. Additionally, an hourly energy yield simulation reveals that: façade (90◦) and 60◦ slope panels with an inverter rated at respectively 50% and 65% Wp, produce 95% of the maximum energy yield at that slope. The flatter seasonal yield profile of “large slope panels” together with decreased peak power fits Dutch demand and grid capacity more effectively.

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Design of wind and solar energy supply, to match energy demand

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Building and building systems energy prediction models to enhance energy flexibility control

The built environment requires energy-flexible buildings to reduce energy peak loads and to maximize the use of (decentralized) renewable energy sources. The challenge is to arrive at smart control strategies that respond to the increasing variations in both the energy demand as well as the variable energy supply. This enables grid integration in existing energy networks with limited capacity and maximises use of decentralized sustainable generation. Buildings can play a key role in the optimization of the grid capacity by applying demand-side management control. To adjust the grid energy demand profile of a building without compromising the user requirements, the building should acquire some energy flexibility capacity. The main ambition of the Brains for Buildings Work Package 2 is to develop smart control strategies that use the operational flexibility of non-residential buildings to minimize energy costs, reduce emissions and avoid spikes in power network load, without compromising comfort levels. To realise this ambition the following key components will be developed within the B4B WP2: (A) Development of open-source HVAC and electric services models, (B) development of energy demand prediction models and (C) development of flexibility management control models. This report describes the developed first two key components, (A) and (B). This report presents different prediction models covering various building components. The models are from three different types: white box models, grey-box models, and black-box models. Each model developed is presented in a different chapter. The chapters start with the goal of the prediction model, followed by the description of the model and the results obtained when applied to a case study. The models developed are two approaches based on white box models (1) White box models based on Modelica libraries for energy prediction of a building and its components and (2) Hybrid predictive digital twin based on white box building models to predict the dynamic energy response of the building and its components. (3) Using CO₂ monitoring data to derive either ventilation flow rate or occupancy. (4) Prediction of the heating demand of a building. (5) Feedforward neural network model to predict the building energy usage and its uncertainty. (6) Prediction of PV solar production. The first model aims to predict the energy use and energy production pattern of different building configurations with open-source software, OpenModelica, and open-source libraries, IBPSA libraries. The white-box model simulation results are used to produce design and control advice for increasing the building energy flexibility. The use of the libraries for making a model has first been tested in a simple residential unit, and now is being tested in a non-residential unit, the Haagse Hogeschool building. The lessons learned show that it is possible to model a building by making use of a combination of libraries, however the development of the model is very time consuming. The test also highlighted the need for defining standard scenarios to test the energy flexibility and the need for a practical visualization if the simulation results are to be used to give advice about potential increase of the energy flexibility. The goal of the hybrid model, which is based on a white based model for the building and systems and a data driven model for user behaviour, is to predict the energy demand and energy supply of a building. The model's application focuses on the use case of the TNO building at Stieltjesweg in Delft during a summer period, with a specific emphasis on cooling demand. Preliminary analysis shows that the monitoring results of the building behaviour is in line with the simulation results. Currently, development is in progress to improve the model predictions by including the solar shading from surrounding buildings, models of automatic shading devices, and model calibration including the energy use of the chiller. The goal of the third model is to derive recent and current ventilation flow rate over time based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and occupancy, as well as deriving recent and current occupancy over time, based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. The grey-box model used is based on the GEKKO python tool. The model was tested with the data of 6 Windesheim University of Applied Sciences office rooms. The model had low precision deriving the ventilation flow rate, especially at low CO2 concentration rates. The model had a good precision deriving occupancy from CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. Further research is needed to determine if these findings apply in different situations, such as meeting spaces and classrooms. The goal of the fourth chapter is to compare the working of a simplified white box model and black-box model to predict the heating energy use of a building. The aim is to integrate these prediction models in the energy management system of SME buildings. The two models have been tested with data from a residential unit since at the time of the analysis the data of a SME building was not available. The prediction models developed have a low accuracy and in their current form cannot be integrated in an energy management system. In general, black-box model prediction obtained a higher accuracy than the white box model. The goal of the fifth model is to predict the energy use in a building using a black-box model and measure the uncertainty in the prediction. The black-box model is based on a feed-forward neural network. The model has been tested with the data of two buildings: educational and commercial buildings. The strength of the model is in the ensemble prediction and the realization that uncertainty is intrinsically present in the data as an absolute deviation. Using a rolling window technique, the model can predict energy use and uncertainty, incorporating possible building-use changes. The testing in two different cases demonstrates the applicability of the model for different types of buildings. The goal of the sixth and last model developed is to predict the energy production of PV panels in a building with the use of a black-box model. The choice for developing the model of the PV panels is based on the analysis of the main contributors of the peak energy demand and peak energy delivery in the case of the DWA office building. On a fault free test set, the model meets the requirements for a calibrated model according to the FEMP and ASHRAE criteria for the error metrics. According to the IPMVP criteria the model should be improved further. The results of the performance metrics agree in range with values as found in literature. For accurate peak prediction a year of training data is recommended in the given approach without lagged variables. This report presents the results and lessons learned from implementing white-box, grey-box and black-box models to predict energy use and energy production of buildings or of variables directly related to them. Each of the models has its advantages and disadvantages. Further research in this line is needed to develop the potential of this approach.

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Building and building systems energy prediction models to enhance energy flexibility control

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Creating circular, efficient and symbiotic cities

The ‘Grand Challenges’ of our times, like climate change, resource depletion, global inequity, and the destruction of wildlife and biodiversity can only be addressed by innovating cities. Despite the options of tele-working, tele-trading and tele-amusing, that allow people to participate in ever more activities, wherever they are, people are resettling in cities at an unprecedented speed. The forecasted ‘rurification’ of society did not occur. Technological development has drained rural society from its main source of income, agriculture, as only a marginal fraction of the labour force is employed in agriculture in the rich parts of the world. Moreover, technological innovation created new jobs in the IT and service sectors in cities. Cities are potentially far more resource efficient than rural areas. In a city transport distances are shorter, infrastructures can be applied to provide for essential services in a more efficient way and symbiosis might be developed between various infrastructures. However, in practice, urban infrastructures are not more efficient than rural infrastructures. This paper explores the reasons why. It digs into the reasons why the symbiotic options that are available in cities are not (sufficiently) utilised. The main reason for this is not of an economic nature: Infrastructure organisations are run by experts who are part of a strong paradigmatic community. Dependence on other organisations is regarded as limiting the infrastructure organisation’s freedom of action to achieve its own goals. Expert cultures are transferred in education, professional associations, and institutional arrangements. By 3 concrete examples of urban systems, the paper will analyse how various paradigms of experts co-evolved with evolving systems. The paper reflects on recent studies that identified professional education as the initiation into such expert paradigms. It will thereby relate lack of urban innovation to the monodisciplinary education of experts and the strong institutionalised character of expertise. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63007-6_43 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/karelmulder/

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Creating circular, efficient and symbiotic cities

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Escaperoom in Energy education

This paper focuses on utilizing the Celciushouse as an escape room in energy education. In a broader context, it also addresses the incorporation of serious gaming in education. The project is part of COVE SEED. SEED - Sustainable Energy Education, aims to develop innovative vocational education and training, working with experts from five different European regions to phase out fossil fuels and contributing to Europe becoming a fossil free energy continent. SEED is a CoVE (Centres of Vocational Excellence) programme. CoVE’s are part of the Erasmus+ program aiming to establish transnational platforms on, among others, regional development, innovation and inclusion. SEED combines education on various international levels including level 2,3,4, and 6. At this moment, the project ESCAPEROOM IN ENERGY EDUCATION is still in its initial phase. With this paper and the accompanying workshop, we aim to gather insights from other international regions involved in the SEED project collaboration. The acceleration of technological developments means that what is learned today may be outdated tomorrow. Therefore, it is essential for educational institutions to focus on developing general skills such as critical thinking, problem-solving, and the ability to quickly absorb new information. The market demands professionals with modern knowledge and skills. Techniques taught to students today may become outdated tomorrow. Therefore, the ability to learn how to learn is becoming increasingly crucial. Analytical and research skills are therefore gaining importance. It is also essential for students to utilize various learning methods. Not just learning from books but particularly learning from practical experience. Practice-oriented learning, where students gain direct experience in real situations, not only reinforces theoretical knowledge but also develops practical skills that are valuable in the job market. To tackle these problems, serious gaming or the establishment of escape rooms can be a solution.

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People 237

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Albert Postma

lector Foresight & Scenarioplanning in Leisure, Tourism & Hospitality

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Adriaan van Liempt

Lecturer and Researcher in Sociology, Methodology and Data Science

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Alican Noyan

Senior Lecturer in Applied Data Science and AI

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Alinda Kokkinou

Senior Lecturer & Researcher

Projects 1

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EmPowerED

The key societal problem addressed by the EmPowerED consortium is the urgent need to accelerate and scale up the development of Positive Energy Districts (PEDs). Carbon neutral heating and cooling is a core element of the design of Positive Energy Districts (PEDS). However, many Dutch heat transition projects run behind schedule and are not compatible with this future vision of PEDs, making the heat transition a key factor in PED realization and upscaling. In this heat transition and the transition to PEDs, citizen engagement and support is a key societal factor and citizens need to be an integral part of the decision-making process on the realization of PEDs. Furthermore, technical, regulatory and financial uncertainties hamper the ability of decision makers to create PED system designs that have citizen support. Such system designs require a deep understanding of the relevant social, spatial, governance, legal, financial, and technical factors, and their interactions in PED system designs.

Ongoing

Products 15

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Collaboration in the local DHC-chain: A bottom-up integrated framework fostering broad-based solutions

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