Forensic reports use various types of conclusions, such as a categorical (CAT) conclusion or a likelihood ratio (LR). In order to correctly assess the evidence, users of forensic reports need to understand the conclusion and its evidential strength. The aim of this paper is to study the interpretation of the evidential strength of forensic conclusions by criminal justice professionals. In an online questionnaire 269 professionals assessed 768 reports on fingerprint examination and answered questions that measured self-proclaimed and actual understanding of the reports and conclusions. The reports entailed CAT, verbal LR and numerical LR conclusions with low or high evidential strength and were assessed by crime scene investigators, police detectives, public prosecutors, criminal lawyers, and judges. The results show that about a quarter of all questions measuring actual understanding of the reports were answered incorrectly. The CAT conclusion was best understood for the weak conclusions, the three strong conclusions were all assessed similarly. The weak CAT conclusion correctly emphasizes the uncertainty of any conclusion type used. However, most participants underestimated the strength of this weak CAT conclusion compared to the other weak conclusion types. Looking at the self-proclaimed understanding of all professionals, they in general overestimated their actual understanding of all conclusion types.
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Are professionals better at assessing the evidential strength of different types of forensic conclusions compared to students? In an online questionnaire 96 crime investigation and law students, and 269 crime investigation and legal professionals assessed three fingerprint examination reports. All reports were similar, except for the conclusion part which was stated in a categorical (CAT), verbal likelihood ratio (VLR) or numerical likelihood ratio (NLR) conclusion with high or low evidential strength. The results showed no significant difference between the groups of students and professionals in their assessment of the conclusions. They all overestimated the strength of the strong CAT conclusion compared to the other conclusion types and underestimated the strength of the weak CAT conclusion. Their background (legal vs. crime investigation) did have a significant effect on their understanding. Whereas the legal professionals performed better compared to the crime investigators, the legal students performed worse compared to crime investigation students.
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"Background: Victimization is highly prevalent in individuals with mild intellectual disability (MID) or borderline intellectual functioning (BIF) and is an important risk factor for mental health problems and violent behavior. Not much is known, however, about victimization history in women with MID-BIF admitted to forensic mental health care. Aims: The aim of this multicenter study is to gain insight into victimization histories and mental health problems of female forensic psychiatric patients with MID-BIF. Methods: File data were analyzed of 126 women with MID-BIF who have been admitted to one of five Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals between 1990 and 2014 and compared to data of 76 female patients with average or above intellectual functioning and to a matched sample of 31 male patients with MID-BIF. Results: All forensic paients had high rates of victimization, but women with MID-BIF showed an even higher prevalence of victimization during both childhood and adulthood and more complex psychopathology compared to female patients without MID-BIF. Compared to male forensic patients with MID-BIF, women with MID-BIF were more often victim of sexual abuse during childhood. During adulthood, the victimization rate in these women was more than three times higher than in men. Conclusions: Victimization is a salient factor in female forensic patients with MID-BIF and more gender-responsive trauma-focused treatment is needed."
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Most violence risk assessment tools have been validated predominantly in males. In this multicenter study, the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management–20 (HCR-20), Historical, Clinical, Risk Management–20 Version 3 (HCR-20V3), Female Additional Manual (FAM), Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START), Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk (SAPROF), and Psychopathy Checklist–Revised (PCL-R) were coded on file information of 78 female forensic psychiatric patients discharged between 1993 and 2012 with a mean follow-up period of 11.8 years from one of four Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. Notable was the high rate of mortality (17.9%) and readmission to psychiatric settings (11.5%) after discharge. Official reconviction data could be retrieved from the Ministry of Justice and Security for 71 women. Twenty-four women (33.8%) were reconvicted after discharge, including 13 for violent offenses (18.3%). Overall, predictive validity was moderate for all types of recidivism, but low for violence. The START Vulnerability scores, HCR-20V3, and FAM showed the highest predictive accuracy for all recidivism. With respect to violent recidivism, only the START Vulnerability scores and the Clinical scale of the HCR-20V3 demonstrated significant predictive accuracy.
MULTIFILE
Digital forensic scientists primarily rely on individual internal reasoning and categorical conclusions when evaluating evidence in casework. This can make it difficult to maintain structured reasoning that is logically sound, balanced, robust, and transparent. Trojan horse defense cases exemplify these challenges in evaluating digital forensic findings. The key challenge in such cases is combining multiple observations into a logically sound probabilistic evaluation while maintaining an understandable forensic report for court and other recipients. To address these challenges, we propose using the likelihood ratio framework to evaluate digital findings in Trojan horse defense cases, with Bayesian networks serving to visualize the evaluation and derive a likelihood ratio. We will illustrate this approach by demonstrating the construction of a Bayesian network through a case example. We show that these networks are very suitable to model the evaluation of digital evidence in Trojan horse defense cases and that they can be easily adapted for various case circumstances. Based on our findings, we strongly recommend broader exploration of Bayesian networks in digital forensic casework.
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“Early warning signs of aggression” refers to recurring changes in behaviors, thoughts, perceptions, and feelings of the patient that are considered to be precursors of aggressive behavior. The early recognition of these signs offers possibilities for early intervention and prevention of aggressive behaviors in forensic patients. The Forensic Early warning Signs of Aggression Inventory (FESAI) was developed to assist nurses and patients in identifying and monitoring these early warning signs of aggression.
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There appears to be some hesitation within the forensic biology community to formally evaluate and report on findings given activity level propositions. This hesitance in part stems from concerns about the lack of relevant data on the dynamics of biological traces and doubt about the relevance of such expert opinions to the trier of fact. At the Netherlands Forensic Institute formal evaluative opinions on the probability of case findings given propositions at the activity level are provided since 2013, if requested by a mandating authority. In this study we share the results from a retrospective analysis of 74 of such requests. We explore which party initiates requests, the types of cases that are submitted, the sources of data being used to assign probabilities to DNA transfer, persistence, prevalence and recovery (TPPR) events, the conclusions that were drawn by the scientists, and how the conclusions were used by the courts. This retrospective analysis of cases demonstrates that published sources of data are generally available and can be used to address DNA TPPR events in most cases, although significant gaps still remain. The study furthermore shows that reporting on forensic biology findings given activity level propositions has been generally accepted by the district and appeal courts, as well as the other parties in the criminal justice system in the Netherlands.
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Background. Violent criminal offenders with personality disorders (PD’s) can cause immense harm, but are often deemed untreatable. This study aimed to conduct a randomized clinical trial to test the effectiveness of long-term psychotherapy for rehabilitating offenders with PDs. Methods. We compared schema therapy (ST), an evidence-based psychotherapy for PDs, to treatment-as-usual (TAU) at eight high-security forensic hospitals in the Netherlands. Patients in both conditions received multiple treatment modalities and differed only in the individual, study-specific therapy they received. One-hundred-three male offenders with antisocial, narcissistic, borderline, or paranoid PDs, or Cluster B PD-not-otherwise specified, were assigned to 3 years of ST or TAU and assessed every 6 months. Primary outcomes were rehabilitation, involving gradual reintegration into the community, and PD symptoms. Results. Patients in both conditions showed moderate to large improvements in outcomes. ST was superior to TAU on both primary outcomes – rehabilitation (i.e. attaining supervised and unsupervised leave) and PD symptoms – and six of nine secondary outcomes, with small to moderate advantages over TAU. ST patients moved more rapidly through rehabilitation (supervised leave, treatment*time: F(5308) = 9.40, p < 0.001; unsupervised leave, treatment*- time: F(5472) = 3.45, p = 0.004), and showed faster improvements on PD scales (treatment*- time: t(1387) = −2.85, p = 0.005). Conclusions. These findings contradict pessimistic views on the treatability of violent offenders with PDs, and support the effectiveness of long-term psychotherapy for rehabilitating these patients, facilitating their re-entry into the community
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Risk assessment plays an important role in forensic mental health care. The way the conclusions of those risk assessments are communicated varies considerably across instruments. In an effort to make them more comparable, Hanson, R. K., Bourgon, G., McGrath, R., Kroner, D. D., Amora, D. A., Thomas, S. S., & Tavarez, L. P. [2017. A five-level risk and needs system: Maximizing assessment results in corrections through the development of a common language. The Council of State Governments Justice Center. https:// csgjusticecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/A-Five-Level-Risk-and-Needs-system_Report.pdf] developed the Five-Level Risk and Needs System, placing the conclusions of different instruments along five theoretically meaningful levels. The current study explores a Five-Level Risk and Needs system for violent recidivism to which the numerical codings of the HCR-20 Version 2 and its successor, the HCR-20V3 are calibrated, using a combined sample from six previous studies for the HCR-20 Version 2 (n = 411 males with a violent index offence) and a pilot sample for the HCR-20V3 (n = 66 males with a violent index offence). Baselines for the five levels were defined by a combination of theoretical (e.g. expert meetings) and empirical (e.g. literature review) considerations. The calibration of the HCR-20 Version 2 was able to detect four levels, from a combined level I/II to an adjusted level V. The provisional calibration of the HCR-20V3 showed a substantial overlap with the HCR-20 Version 2, with each level boundary having a 2-point difference. Implications for practice and future research are discussed.
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Women and girls represent only a minority in the penitentiary system and in forensic mental health care. About 6%–10% of both prison and forensic psychiatric populations in Western countries comprise women (see for the most recent offi cial statistics in the UK w ww.gov. uk/government, in Canada w ww.statcan.gc.ca, and in the US w ww.bjs.gov) . However, there seems to be widespread agreement that in the past 20 years female offending has been on the rise, especially violent offending and particularly among young women ( Miller, Malone, and Dodge, 2010; M oretti, Catchpole, and Odgers, 2005) . Overall, a disproportionate growth of females entering the criminal justice system and forensic mental health care has been observed in many countries (for reviews, see Nicholls, Cruise, Greig, and Hinz, 2015; Odgers, Moretti, and Reppucci, 2005 ; Walmsley, 2015) . In addition, it should be noted that the ‘dark number’ for women is suggested to be bigger than for men. Offi cial prevalence rates of female offending might constitute an underestimation as women usually commit less reported offences, for example, domestic violence (N icholls, Greaves, Greig, and Moretti, 2015) . Furthermore, it has been found that – if apprehended – girls and women are treated more leniently by professionals and the criminal justice system. Generally, they receive lower prison sentences and are more often admitted to civil psychiatric institutions instead of receiving a prison sentence or mandatory forensic treatment after committing violence ( Javdani, Sadeh, and Verona, 2011 ; Jeffries, Fletcher, and Newbold, 2003 ). Hence, although female offenders compared to male offenders are a minority, female violence is a substantial problem that deserves more attention. Our understanding of female offenders is hindered by the general paucity of theoretical and empirical investigations of this population. In order to improve current treatment and assessment practices, our knowledge and understanding of female offenders should be enlarged and optimised (d e Vogel and Nicholls, 2016 ).
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