At this moment, no method is available to objectively estimate the temperature to which skeletal remains have been exposed during a fire. Estimating this temperature can provide crucial information in a legal investigation. Exposure of bone to heat results in observable and measurable changes, including a change in colour. To determine the exposure temperature of experimental bone samples, heat related changes in colour were systemically studied by means of image analysis. In total 1138 samples of fresh human long bone diaphysis and epiphysis, varying in size, were subjected to heat ranging from room temperature to 900 °C for various durations and in different media. The samples were scanned with a calibrated flatbed scanner and photographed with a Digital Single Lens Reflex camera. Red, Green, Blue values and Lightness, A-, and B-coordinates were collected for statistical analysis. Cluster analysis showed that discriminating thresholds for Lightness and B-coordinate could be defined and used to construct a model of decision rules. This model enables the user to differentiate between seven different temperature clusters with relatively high precision and accuracy. The proposed decision model provides an objective, robust and non-destructive method for estimating the exposure temperature of heated bone samples.
MULTIFILE
ABSTRACT It is unknown whether heterogeneity in effects of self-management interventions in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can be explained by differences in programme characteristics. This study aimed to identify which characteristics of COPD self-management interventions are most effective. Systematic search in electronic databases identified randomised trials on self-management interventions conducted between 1985 and 2013. Individual patient data were requested for meta-analysis by generalised mixed effects models. 14 randomised trials were included (67% of eligible), representing 3282 patients (75% of eligible). Univariable analyses showed favourable effects on some outcomes for more planned contacts and longer duration of interventions, interventions with peer contact, without log keeping, without problem solving, and without support allocation. After adjusting for other programme characteristics in multivariable analyses, only the effects of duration on all-cause hospitalisation remained. Each month increase in intervention duration reduced risk of all-cause hospitalisation (time to event hazard ratios 0.98, 95% CI 0.97–0.99; risk ratio (RR) after 6 months follow-up 0.96, 95% CI 0.92–0.99; RR after 12 months follow-up 0.98, 95% CI 0.96–1.00). Our results showed that longer duration of self-management interventions conferred a reduction in allcause hospitalisations in COPD patients. Other characteristics are not consistently associated with differential effects of self-management interventions across clinically relevant outcomes.
BACKGROUND: Prediction models and prognostic scores have been increasingly popular in both clinical practice and clinical research settings, for example to aid in risk-based decision making or control for confounding. In many medical fields, a large number of prognostic scores are available, but practitioners may find it difficult to choose between them due to lack of external validation as well as lack of comparisons between them.METHODS: Borrowing methodology from network meta-analysis, we describe an approach to Multiple Score Comparison meta-analysis (MSC) which permits concurrent external validation and comparisons of prognostic scores using individual patient data (IPD) arising from a large-scale international collaboration. We describe the challenges in adapting network meta-analysis to the MSC setting, for instance the need to explicitly include correlations between the scores on a cohort level, and how to deal with many multi-score studies. We propose first using IPD to make cohort-level aggregate discrimination or calibration scores, comparing all to a common comparator. Then, standard network meta-analysis techniques can be applied, taking care to consider correlation structures in cohorts with multiple scores. Transitivity, consistency and heterogeneity are also examined.RESULTS: We provide a clinical application, comparing prognostic scores for 3-year mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using data from a large-scale collaborative initiative. We focus on the discriminative properties of the prognostic scores. Our results show clear differences in performance, with ADO and eBODE showing higher discrimination with respect to mortality than other considered scores. The assumptions of transitivity and local and global consistency were not violated. Heterogeneity was small.CONCLUSIONS: We applied a network meta-analytic methodology to externally validate and concurrently compare the prognostic properties of clinical scores. Our large-scale external validation indicates that the scores with the best discriminative properties to predict 3 year mortality in patients with COPD are ADO and eBODE.
