The built environment requires energy-flexible buildings to reduce energy peak loads and to maximize the use of (decentralized) renewable energy sources. The challenge is to arrive at smart control strategies that respond to the increasing variations in both the energy demand as well as the variable energy supply. This enables grid integration in existing energy networks with limited capacity and maximises use of decentralized sustainable generation. Buildings can play a key role in the optimization of the grid capacity by applying demand-side management control. To adjust the grid energy demand profile of a building without compromising the user requirements, the building should acquire some energy flexibility capacity. The main ambition of the Brains for Buildings Work Package 2 is to develop smart control strategies that use the operational flexibility of non-residential buildings to minimize energy costs, reduce emissions and avoid spikes in power network load, without compromising comfort levels. To realise this ambition the following key components will be developed within the B4B WP2: (A) Development of open-source HVAC and electric services models, (B) development of energy demand prediction models and (C) development of flexibility management control models. This report describes the developed first two key components, (A) and (B). This report presents different prediction models covering various building components. The models are from three different types: white box models, grey-box models, and black-box models. Each model developed is presented in a different chapter. The chapters start with the goal of the prediction model, followed by the description of the model and the results obtained when applied to a case study. The models developed are two approaches based on white box models (1) White box models based on Modelica libraries for energy prediction of a building and its components and (2) Hybrid predictive digital twin based on white box building models to predict the dynamic energy response of the building and its components. (3) Using CO₂ monitoring data to derive either ventilation flow rate or occupancy. (4) Prediction of the heating demand of a building. (5) Feedforward neural network model to predict the building energy usage and its uncertainty. (6) Prediction of PV solar production. The first model aims to predict the energy use and energy production pattern of different building configurations with open-source software, OpenModelica, and open-source libraries, IBPSA libraries. The white-box model simulation results are used to produce design and control advice for increasing the building energy flexibility. The use of the libraries for making a model has first been tested in a simple residential unit, and now is being tested in a non-residential unit, the Haagse Hogeschool building. The lessons learned show that it is possible to model a building by making use of a combination of libraries, however the development of the model is very time consuming. The test also highlighted the need for defining standard scenarios to test the energy flexibility and the need for a practical visualization if the simulation results are to be used to give advice about potential increase of the energy flexibility. The goal of the hybrid model, which is based on a white based model for the building and systems and a data driven model for user behaviour, is to predict the energy demand and energy supply of a building. The model's application focuses on the use case of the TNO building at Stieltjesweg in Delft during a summer period, with a specific emphasis on cooling demand. Preliminary analysis shows that the monitoring results of the building behaviour is in line with the simulation results. Currently, development is in progress to improve the model predictions by including the solar shading from surrounding buildings, models of automatic shading devices, and model calibration including the energy use of the chiller. The goal of the third model is to derive recent and current ventilation flow rate over time based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and occupancy, as well as deriving recent and current occupancy over time, based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. The grey-box model used is based on the GEKKO python tool. The model was tested with the data of 6 Windesheim University of Applied Sciences office rooms. The model had low precision deriving the ventilation flow rate, especially at low CO2 concentration rates. The model had a good precision deriving occupancy from CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. Further research is needed to determine if these findings apply in different situations, such as meeting spaces and classrooms. The goal of the fourth chapter is to compare the working of a simplified white box model and black-box model to predict the heating energy use of a building. The aim is to integrate these prediction models in the energy management system of SME buildings. The two models have been tested with data from a residential unit since at the time of the analysis the data of a SME building was not available. The prediction models developed have a low accuracy and in their current form cannot be integrated in an energy management system. In general, black-box model prediction obtained a higher accuracy than the white box model. The goal of the fifth model is to predict the energy use in a building using a black-box model and measure the uncertainty in the prediction. The black-box model is based on a feed-forward neural network. The model has been tested with the data of two buildings: educational and commercial buildings. The strength of the model is in the ensemble prediction and the realization that uncertainty is intrinsically present in the data as an absolute deviation. Using a rolling window technique, the model can predict energy use and uncertainty, incorporating possible building-use changes. The testing in two different cases demonstrates the applicability of the model for different types of buildings. The goal of the sixth and last model developed is to predict the energy production of PV panels in a building with the use of a black-box model. The choice for developing the model of the PV panels is based on the analysis of the main contributors of the peak energy demand and peak energy delivery in the case of the DWA office building. On a fault free test set, the model meets the requirements for a calibrated model according to the FEMP and ASHRAE criteria for the error metrics. According to the IPMVP criteria the model should be improved further. The results of the performance metrics agree in range with values as found in literature. For accurate peak prediction a year of training data is recommended in the given approach without lagged variables. This report presents the results and lessons learned from implementing white-box, grey-box and black-box models to predict energy use and energy production of buildings or of variables directly related to them. Each of the models has its advantages and disadvantages. Further research in this line is needed to develop the potential of this approach.
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Thirty to sixty per cent of older patients experience functional decline after hospitalisation, associated with an increase in dependence, readmission, nursing home placement and mortality. First step in prevention is the identification of patients at risk. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model to assess the risk of functional decline in older hospitalised patients.
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Abstract Background: COVID-19 was first identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China. The virus quickly spread and was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020. After infection, symptoms such as fever, a (dry) cough, nasal congestion, and fatigue can develop. In some cases, the virus causes severe complications such as pneumonia and dyspnea and could result in death. The virus also spread rapidly in the Netherlands, a small and densely populated country with an aging population. Health care in the Netherlands is of a high standard, but there were nevertheless problems with hospital capacity, such as the number of available beds and staff. There were also regions and municipalities that were hit harder than others. In the Netherlands, there are important data sources available for daily COVID-19 numbers and information about municipalities. Objective: We aimed to predict the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands, using a data set with the properties of 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and advanced modeling techniques. Methods: We collected relevant static data per municipality from data sources that were available in the Dutch public domain and merged these data with the dynamic daily number of infections from January 1, 2020, to May 9, 2021, resulting in a data set with 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and variables grouped into 20 topics. The modeling techniques random forest and multiple fractional polynomials were used to construct a prediction model for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands. Results: The final prediction model had an R2 of 0.63. Important properties for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality in the Netherlands were exposure to particulate matter with diameters <10 μm (PM10) in the air, the percentage of Labour party voters, and the number of children in a household. Conclusions: Data about municipality properties in relation to the cumulative number of confirmed infections in a municipality in the Netherlands can give insight into the most important properties of a municipality for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality. This insight can provide policy makers with tools to cope with COVID-19 and may also be of value in the event of a future pandemic, so that municipalities are better prepared.
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Background: Clinicians are currently challenged to support older adults to maintain a certain level of Functional Independence (FI). FI is defined as "functioning physically safely and independent from another person, within one's own context". A Core Outcome Set was developed to measure FI. The purpose of this study was to assess discriminative validity of the Core Outcome Set FI (COSFI) in a population of Dutch older adults (≥ 65 years) with different levels of FI. Secondary objective was to assess to what extent the underlying domains 'coping', 'empowerment' and 'health literacy' contribute to the COSFI in addition to the domain 'physical capacity'. Methods: A population of 200 community-dwelling older adults and older adults living in residential care facilities were evaluated by the COSFI. The COSFI contains measurements on the four domains of FI: physical capacity, coping, empowerment and health literacy. In line with the COSMIN Study Design checklist for Patient-reported outcome measurement instruments, predefined hypotheses regarding prediction accuracy and differences between three subgroups of FI were tested. Testing included ordinal logistic regression analysis, with main outcome prediction accuracy of the COSFI on a proxy indicator for FI. Results: Overall, the prediction accuracy of the COSFI was 68%. For older adults living at home and depending on help in (i)ADL, prediction accuracy was 58%. 60% of the preset hypotheses were confirmed. Only physical capacity measured with Short Physical Performance Battery was significantly associated with group membership. Adding health literacy with coping or empowerment to a model with physical capacity improved the model significantly (p < 0.01). Conclusions: The current composition of the COSFI, did not yet meet the COSMIN criteria for discriminative validity. However, with some adjustments, the COSFI potentially becomes a valuable instrument for clinical practice. Context-related factors, like the presence of a spouse, also may be a determining factor in this population. It is recommended to include context-related factors in further research on determining FI in subgroups of older people.
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From the publisher: "Background: The introduction of whole new foods in a population may lead to sensitization and food allergy. This constitutes a potential public health problem and a challenge to risk assessors and managers as the existing understanding of the pathophysiological processes and the currently available biological tools for prediction of the risk for food allergy development and the severity of the reaction are not sufficient. There is a substantial body of in vivo and in vitro data describing molecular and cellular events potentially involved in food sensitization. However, these events have not been organized in a sequence of related events that is plausible to result in sensitization, and useful to challenge current hypotheses. The aim of this manuscript was to collect and structure the current mechanistic understanding of sensitization induction to food proteins by applying the concept of adverse outcome pathway (AOP). Main body: The proposed AOP for food sensitization is based on information on molecular and cellular mechanisms and pathways evidenced to be involved in sensitization by food and food proteins and uses the AOPs for chemical skin sensitization and respiratory sensitization induction as templates. Available mechanistic data on protein respiratory sensitization were included to fill out gaps in the understanding of how proteins may affect cells, cell-cell interactions and tissue homeostasis. Analysis revealed several key events (KE) and biomarkers that may have potential use in testing and assessment of proteins for their sensitizing potential. Conclusion: The application of the AOP concept to structure mechanistic in vivo and in vitro knowledge has made it possible to identify a number of methods, each addressing a specific KE, that provide information about the food allergenic potential of new proteins. When applied in the context of an integrated strategy these methods may reduce, if not replace, current animal testing approaches. The proposed AOP will be shared at the www.aopwiki.org platform to expand the mechanistic data, improve the confidence in each of the proposed KE and key event relations (KERs), and allow for the identification of new, or refinement of established KE and KERs." Authors: Jolanda H. M. van BilsenEmail author, Edyta Sienkiewicz-Szłapka, Daniel Lozano-Ojalvo, Linette E. M. Willemsen, Celia M. Antunes, Elena Molina, Joost J. Smit, Barbara Wróblewska, Harry J. Wichers, Edward F. Knol, Gregory S. Ladics, Raymond H. H. Pieters, Sandra Denery-Papini, Yvonne M. Vissers, Simona L. Bavaro, Colette Larré, Kitty C. M. Verhoeckx and Erwin L. Roggen
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The central goal of this study is to clarify to what degree former education and students' personal characteristics (the 'Big Five personality characteristics', personal orientations on learning and students' study approach) may predict study outcome (required credits and study continuance). Analysis of the data gathered through questionnaires of 1,471 Universities of Applied Sciences students make clear that former Education did not come forth as a powerful predictor for Credits or Study Continuance. Significant predictors are Conscientiousness and Ambivalence and Lack of Regulation. The higher the scores on Conscientiousness the more credits students are bound to obtain and the more likely they will continue their education. On the other hand students with high scores on Ambivalence and Lack of Regulation will most likely obtain fewer Credits or drop out more easily. The question arises what these results mean for the present knowledge economy which demands an increase of inhabitants with an advanced level of education. Finally, implications and recommendations for future research are suggested.
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Background: Adverse outcome pathway (AOP) networks are versatile tools in toxicology and risk assessment that capture and visualize mechanisms driving toxicity originating from various data sources. They share a common structure consisting of a set of molecular initiating events and key events, connected by key event relationships, leading to the actual adverse outcome. AOP networks are to be considered living documents that should be frequently updated by feeding in new data. Such iterative optimization exercises are typically done manually, which not only is a time-consuming effort, but also bears the risk of overlooking critical data. The present study introduces a novel approach for AOP network optimization of a previously published AOP network on chemical-induced cholestasis using artificial intelligence to facilitate automated data collection followed by subsequent quantitative confidence assessment of molecular initiating events, key events, and key event relationships. Methods: Artificial intelligence-assisted data collection was performed by means of the free web platform Sysrev. Confidence levels of the tailored Bradford-Hill criteria were quantified for the purpose of weight-of-evidence assessment of the optimized AOP network. Scores were calculated for biological plausibility, empirical evidence, and essentiality, and were integrated into a total key event relationship confidence value. The optimized AOP network was visualized using Cytoscape with the node size representing the incidence of the key event and the edge size indicating the total confidence in the key event relationship. Results: This resulted in the identification of 38 and 135 unique key events and key event relationships, respectively. Transporter changes was the key event with the highest incidence, and formed the most confident key event relationship with the adverse outcome, cholestasis. Other important key events present in the AOP network include: nuclear receptor changes, intracellular bile acid accumulation, bile acid synthesis changes, oxidative stress, inflammation and apoptosis. Conclusions: This process led to the creation of an extensively informative AOP network focused on chemical-induced cholestasis. This optimized AOP network may serve as a mechanistic compass for the development of a battery of in vitro assays to reliably predict chemical-induced cholestatic injury.
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Knowing what predicts discontinuation or success of psychotherapies for Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) is important to improve treatments. Many variables have been reported in the literature, but replication is needed and investigating what therapy process underlies the findings is necessary to understand why variables predict outcome. Using data of an RCT comparing Schema Therapy and Transference Focused Psychotherapy as treatments for BPD, variables derived from the literature were tested as predictors of discontinuation and treatment success. Participants were 86 adult outpatients (80 women, mean age 30.5 years) with a primary diagnosis of BPD who had on average received 3 previous treatment modalities. First, single predictors were tested with logistic regression, controlling for treatment type (and medication use in case of treatment success). Next, with multivariate backward logistic regression essential predictors were detected. Baseline hostility and childhood physical abuse predicted treatment discontinuation. Baseline subjective burden of dissociation predicted a smaller chance of recovery. A second study demonstrated that in-session dissociation, assessed from session audiotapes, mediated the observed effects of baseline dissociation on recovery, indicating that dissociation during sessions interferes with treatment effectiveness. The results suggest that specifically addressing high hostility, childhood abuse, and in-session dissociation might reduce dropout and lack of effectiveness of treatment.
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Several models have been developed to predict prolonged stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) after cardiac surgery. However, no extensive quantitative validation of these models has yet been conducted. This study sought to identify and validate existing prediction models for prolonged ICU length of stay after cardiac surgery.
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From the article: Abstract Sub-chronic toxicity studies of 163 non-genotoxic chemicals were evaluated in order to predict the tumour outcome of 24-month rat carcinogenicity studies obtained from the EFSA and ToxRef databases. Hundred eleven of the 148 chemicals that did not induce putative preneoplastic lesions in the sub-chronic study also did not induce tumours in the carcinogenicity study (True Negatives). Cellular hypertrophy appeared to be an unreliable predictor of carcinogenicity. The negative predictivity, the measure of the compounds evaluated that did not show any putative preneoplastic lesion in de sub-chronic studies and were negative in the carcinogenicity studies, was 75%, whereas the sensitivity, a measure of the sub-chronic study to predict a positive carcinogenicity outcome was only 5%. The specificity, the accuracy of the sub-chronic study to correctly identify non-carcinogens was 90%. When the chemicals which induced tumours generally considered not relevant for humans (33 out of 37 False Negatives) are classified as True Negatives, the negative predictivity amounts to 97%. Overall, the results of this retrospective study support the concept that chemicals showing no histopathological risk factors for neoplasia in a sub-chronic study in rats may be considered non-carcinogenic and do not require further testing in a carcinogenicity study.
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