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De praktijk van toekomstscenario's

Om goed in te spelen op complexe ontwikkelingen in onze snel veranderende samenleving, hebben organisaties hulp en handvatten nodig. In dit artikel wordt daartoe een driestapsaanpak beschreven voor het inzetten van toekomstscenario’s bij strategievorming: identificeren van drivers for change; toekomstscenario’s creëren en toekomstscenario’s toepassen. Deze aanpak is in de praktijk toegepast, drie van deze praktijkcases worden hier beschreven: ‘Grafimedia 3.0’; ‘The food after tomorrow’ en ‘Een leefbare stad Eindhoven 2030’. Op basis van de resultaten uit deze cases en de verschillen en overeenkomsten ertussen kunnen de volgende aanbevelingen worden gegeven: de tijdshorizon van de toekomstscenario’s moet aansluiten bij de urgentie van de opdrachtgever; adequate begeleiding bij het toepassen van de toekomstscenario’s is onmisbaar en het is belangrijk om actief te zijn in het verbeelden van de toekomst, voor zowel de makers van de toekomstscenario’s als voor de opdrachtgever. In order to comply with the complex and rapid developments of our society when directing an organization, policymakers need help and guidance. To offer these, this article describes a three-step approach for using future scenarios in strategy development: the identification of drivers for change, the creation of future scenarios and the practical application of these future scenarios. This approach has been used in real life and three of these cases are described here: ‘Grafimedia 3.0’; ‘The food after tomorrow’ and ‘Een leefbare stad Eindhoven 2030’ (‘A livable Eindhoven in 2030’). The following recommendations can be derived based on the case results and their differences and similarities: the time scale of the future scenarios should match the urgency of the client’s situation, adequate tutoring in the practical application of the future scenarios is essential and, lastly, it is important, not only for the creators of the future scenarios but also for the client, to imagine the future in an active fashion.

Workshop on tradeoffs scenarios between the impact on seafloor habitats and provisions of catch-value (WKTRADE2)

The second Workshop on Tradeoffs Scenarios between the Impact on Seafloor Habitats and Provisions of catch/value (WKTRADE2) was established to provide input on trade-offs aspects to the Working group on Fisheries Benthic Impact and Trade-offs (WGFBIT). As such, the workshop was tasked to: 1) demonstrate the applicability of a set of approaches to better estimate fisheries revenue; 2) establish ways to assess effort reduction scenarios; and 3) explore how to (better) incorporate social factors associated with fisheries. The workshop suggests that to improve estimates of the “value” of an area to fisheries that the contribution margin (income from landings minus variable costs) should be calculated. To do this two complementary approaches (disaggregation and mechanistic) are presented and can be developed using the current ICES VMS and logbook data, supplemented with economic data layers. A modular workflow to integrate the variables into the assessment is also presented. Furthermore, the workshop found that redistribution of total revenue among individual fishers and fishers’ communities will need to be considered to accurately predict displacement effects and impact evaluation on fisheries economics. Applying predictive modelling techniques adds to assessing a static picture (current fishing activity) because it considers displacement effects which may elucidate increased pressure on essential fish habitats, sensitive vulnerable habitats, or previously untrawled areas. To better identify trade-offs between ecological, economic and social factors for use by the ICES working group WGFBIT, the workshop recommends also using integrative approaches (e.g. bioeconomic models, stakeholder engagement) that account for direct linkages between fish, fisheries and benthos dynamics to address issues related to MSFD, CFP and spatial management plans in a consistent way. When considering the effects of displacement the contribution margin should be accounted for as the fishing closures are likely to have indirect (positive or negative) effects. For example, protecting part of the fish stocks might lead to better catch rates and therefore fuel savings, etc. The workshop also found static models to be operational and more easily used to identify impacted fishing fleets. While, dynamic modelling approaches allow for the adaptation of fishing fleets (e.g. displacement, gear modifications), potentially mitigating the estimated impact of spatial and temporal restrictions. Static approaches are easy to use in stakeholder processes, and can facilitate stakeholder engagement. Future development of static and dynamic models will need to account for the influence of other activities (e.g. closures due to wind farm) on fisheries activities. Running scenarios using dynamic models will indicate which areas are most valuable to fisheries after spatial management scenarios are proposed. This elicits the socio-economic valuable fisheries areas. The workshop’s focus was on the spatial management scenarios so far identified by the working group WGFBIT, but the suggested workflow can also be used to address other scenarios, e.g. technical measures aimed at reducing gear penetration depths, disturbance effects and improving selectivity, habitat credits approaches that define credits related to the sensitivity of habitat and convey credits to the fishing industry to manage either collectively or individually. The workshop also identified some follow-up work that working group WGFBIT could take on to both to improve the current scenario testing on spatial restrictions, as well as how to deal with fleet adaptation/effort displacement in reaction to the spatial restrictions. This work would benefit by stronger links to ICES working groups WGECON and WGSOCIAL to ensure the required fisheries economic expertise.

Changing teacher perspectives

A group of Dutch teachers, as part of their Master’s programme, developed a game that allows teachers to break free from their day-to-day affairs and reflect on futures by designing scenarios about the future of their school. In this game-based approach the journey of scenario exploration is composed of seven steps: (1) choice of a theme and timeframe, (2) selection of key dilemmas on which two scenario axes will be based, (3) understanding the content and context of a “matrix” provided for the game, (4) setting up scenario groups, (5) developing four scenarios, (6) sharing scenarios, and (7) reflection on the scenarios.

Scenarios for the Cultural Expansion of Games. Gaming Horizons Deliverable D 3.2

Gaming Horizons is a EU-funded project that explored the role of video games in culture, the economy and education. We engaged with more than 280 stakeholders through interviews, workshops and webinars.

How will the story end: followers’ prospective scenarios of organizational change

The aim of this paper is to understand how employees, in their role of follower of change, frame upcoming change by studying the prospective stories they tell (n=110). This study complements the dominant retrospective approach to the research of employees’ change sensemaking. We incorporate forward-looking awareness into organization theories and add to the scholarly interest in prospection (Gioia & Patvardhan, 2018). This could lead to a better understanding of followers’ adaptation- or rejection intentions in response to change initiatives (Konlechner et al., 2018). Theoretical background Employees experience continuous shifts in relationships and organizational roles (Van der Smissen et al., 2013). This ‘turbulence’ triggers intensive sensemaking (Weick, 1995) of what is going on and how to respond. In uncertain times, employees often form expectations towards the future based on their remembered experiences from the past, and organizational change literature has traditionally taken a retrospective approach to understand followers’ change sensemaking (Boje, 2008). However, traditional literature neither provides elaborate insight in followers’ attempts to build scenarios for their future, nor do they add to the understanding of followers’ hopes, dreams, concerns, or fears (which all have a future time orientation) in the context of upcoming change. Scholars suggested that the current radical changes employees face cannot be anticipated easily from a mere retrospective approach (MacKay & Chia, 2013). In reality, employees think as often about their future as they do about their past and tend to create complex, temporal ranges of future orientations (Klein, 2013). Hence, researchers have critiqued the omission of the possible impact of beliefs and expectations about the future (e.g., Kaplan & Orlikowski, 2013), and have developed complementary notions to develop temporal sensemaking to challenge us to “mentally reverse the arrow of time” (Lord et al., 2013, p. 4) by focusing on expected futures to understand the present. The acknowledgement of prospective sensemaking directing attitudes and behaviors today (Maitlis & Christianson, 2014), expectedly offers novel insights to those interesting in understanding employees’ change behaviors. Design/Methodology/Approach/Intervention. A narrative approach is used to capture 110 individuals’ idiosyncratic and cultural sensemaking efforts (Pentland, 1999). We created a digital research set-up in which participants were guided to write a narrative that resembles a biographical account about a fictive colleague. Participants were introduced to the task by a video message from the fictive focal actor “Jim” and a video announcement of upcoming change by a fictive CEO in a Zoom-call for the entire organization. By means of the Story Completion Method, participants were asked “how does the story end?” and invited to write subsequent chapters on how they expected this story to continue, and how the roles and responses of the different actors would unfold along the way. Research context is provided by the Dutch travel industry in which organizations are dealing with heavy consequences of the COVID19 pandemic. Results will be available by November 2021. Limitations Qualitative research is less generalizable given the sample size and scope. Besides, the method requires specific skills and a level of empathy with the scenario, this proved to be difficult for some of the participants. In our analysis we therefore have to account for a difference between prospective sensemaking efforts and mere extrapolations of past experiences. Research/Practical Implications This study reveals potentialities that are considered to be available in the future. For change leaders, it is helpful to understand these potentialities as they reveal explanations for differences in followers’ prospective change strategies, and diverse anticipative responses to change efforts. We extend the concept of prospective sensemaking, and explore its use in a follower-based, dynamic context of organizational change. Originality/Value Advancing the concept of follower-based prospective sensemaking is important as it could provide explorative notions that illustrate the formation and use of expectations. Especially interesting is the context Dutch travel industry context as employees at the time of data collection experienced a ‘cosmology episode’ triggering sudden loss of meaning and coherence. This is perceived to be a critical trigger for sensemaking in the absence of past empirical experience (as no one experienced a pandemic and resulting business challenges before, but rather relies on transcendent belief systems in the face of future uncertainty (Weick, 1993)).

Blue paper: Toekomst-scenarios retail shopping tomorrow