Longitudinal criminological studies greatly improved our understanding of the longitudinal patterns of criminality. These studies, however, focused almost exclusively on traditional types of offending and it is therefore unclear whether results are generalizable to online types of offending. This study attempted to identify the developmental trajectories of active hackers who perform web defacements. The data for this study consisted of 2,745,311 attacks performed by 66,553 hackers and reported to Zone-H between January 2010 and March 2017. Semi-parametric group-based trajectory models were used to distinguish six different groups of hackers based on the timing and frequency of their defacements. The results demonstrated some common relationships to traditional types of crime, as a small population of defacers accounted for the majority of defacements against websites. Additionally, the methods and targeting practices of defacers differed based on the frequency with which they performed defacements generally.
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Abstract: Background: Hip fracture in older patients often lead to permanent disabilities and can result in mortality. Objective: To identify distinct disability trajectories from admission to one-year post-discharge in acutely hospitalized older patients after hip fracture. Design: Prospective cohort study, with assessments at admission, three-months and one-year post-discharge. Setting and participants: Patients ≥ 65 years admitted to a 1024-bed tertiary teaching hospital in the Netherlands. Methods: Disability was the primary outcome and measured with the modified Katz ADL-index score. A secondary outcome was mortality. Latent class growth analysis was performed to detect distinct disability trajectories from admission and Cox regression was used to analyze the effect of the deceased patients to one-year after discharge. Results: The mean (SD) age of the 267 patients was 84.0 (6.9) years. We identified 3 disability trajectories based on the Katz ADL-index score from admission to one-year post-discharge: ‘mild’- (n=54 (20.2%)), ‘moderate’- (n=110 (41.2%)) and ‘severe’ disability (n=103 (38.6%)). Patients in all three trajectories showed an increase of disabilities at three months, in relation to baseline and 80% did not return to baseline one-year post-discharge. Seventy-three patients (27.3%) deceased within one-year post-discharge, particularly in the ‘moderate’- (n=22 (8.2%)) and ‘severe’ disability trajectory (n=47 (17.6%)). Conclusions: Three disability trajectories were identified from hospital admission until one-year follow-up in acutely hospitalized older patients after hip fracture. Most patients had substantial functional decline and 27% of the patient’s deceased one-year post-discharge, mainly patients in the ‘moderate’- ‘and severe’ disability trajectories.
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Research on migrant youth makes two longstanding assumptions: that they are immobile following their own or their parents’ migration and that their resource environments are confined to their country of residence. Recent investigations of transnational youth mobility question both assumptions, showing that migrant youth – including the first and second generations – are highly mobile, and that their mobility has multiple impacts on their lives. This paper seeks to add to this growing literature by conceptualising as ‘transnational resources’ the perspectives, values, knowledge, and skills that migrant youth gain from their mobility between their countries of origin and residence and which become meaningful in various aspects of their multi-local (or what we call transnational) lives. Drawing on ethnographic data with 81 young people who are mobile between Ghana and three European countries (Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands), we analyse the three main transnational resources we identified – enhanced sense of self, adaptability, and future outlook. Engaging the dual analytical lenses of temporalities and trajectories, we show both how transnational resources are gained through embodied mobility experiences and how they become meaningful in migrant youth’s lives across time and space.
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In this study, growth trajectories (from admission until unconditional release) of crime-related dynamic risk factors were investigated in a sample of Dutch forensic patients (N = 317), using latent growth curve modeling. After testing the unconditional model, three predictors were added: first-time offender versus recidivist, age, and treatment duration. Postanalyses were chi-square difference tests, t tests, and analyses of variance (ANOVAs) to assess differences in trajectories. Overall, on scale level, a decrease of risk factors over time was found. The predictors showed no significant slope differences although age and treatment duration differed significantly at some time points. The oldest age group performed worse, especially at later time points. Treatment duration effects were found at the second time point. Our results that forensic patients show a decrease in crime-related risk factors may indicate that treatment is effective. This study also found differences in growth rates, indicating the effect of individual differences
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Long-term learning trajectories evolve through microdevelopmental sequences (i.e., short-term processes of change during learning tasks) and depend on variability during and across learning tasks. The aim of this study is to examine the coupling between short-term teacher-student dynamics and students’ long-term learning trajectories, thereby providing empirical support for the link between the short- and long-term time scale in cognitive development. For 31 students (ages 3–5 years) from regular and special education, five teacher-student interactions during science tasks were filmed and coded in real time with regard to the student’s level of understanding and the teacher’s support throughout the task. A hierarchical cluster analysis resulted in four different learning trajectories over the course of 1.5 years, labeled as a high-scoring, mid-scoring, fluctuating, and low-scoring group of students. When connecting these trajectories to microdevelopmental data, the interactions of the high-scoring students were characterized by more moment-to-moment variations in the teacher’s support and student’s level of understanding, while the low-scoring group had the least variability compared to the other groups. Students with emotional and behavioral disabilities were represented across all learning trajectories, despite frequent accounts in the literature on their significant academic delays.
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PurposeWe assessed the association between trajectories of stressful life events (SLEs) throughout adolescence and changes in mental health from childhood to young adulthood. Further, we assessed whether family functioning moderated this association.MethodsData of the first six waves of the TRAILS study (2001-2016; n = 2229) were used, a cohort followed from approximately age 11 to 23. We measured SLEs (death of a family member or other beloved one, delinquency, moving, victim of violence, parental divorce, and sexual harassment) at ages 14, 16 and 19. Family functioning was measured at all six time points using the Family Assessment Device (FAD), and mental health was measured through the Youth/Adult Self-Report at ages 11 and 23. Latent class growth analyses (LCGA) were used to examine longitudinal trajectories and associations.ResultsWe identified three SLE trajectories (low, middle, high) throughout adolescence, and found no significant associations between these trajectories and changes in mental health from childhood to young adulthood. Family functioning and SLE trajectories were significantly associated, however, the association of SLE trajectories and changes in mental health was not modified by family functioning. Mental health problems at age 11 increased the likelihood of high SLE trajectories during adolescence, and of experiencing negative family functioning.ConclusionExperiencing SLEs throughout adolescence does not have a direct impact on changes in mental health from childhood to young adulthood, but early adolescence mental health problems increase the likelihood of experiencing SLEs.
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BACKGROUND: Although the importance of evaluating implementation fidelity is acknowledged, little is known about heterogeneity in fidelity over time. This study aims to generate insight into the heterogeneity in implementation fidelity trajectories of a health promotion program in multidisciplinary settings and the relationship with changes in patients' health behavior.METHODS: This study used longitudinal data from the nationwide implementation of an evidence-informed physical activity promotion program in Dutch rehabilitation care. Fidelity scores were calculated based on annual surveys filled in by involved professionals (n = ± 70). Higher fidelity scores indicate a more complete implementation of the program's core components. A hierarchical cluster analysis was conducted on the implementation fidelity scores of 17 organizations at three different time points. Quantitative and qualitative data were used to explore organizational and professional differences between identified trajectories. Regression analyses were conducted to determine differences in patient outcomes.RESULTS: Three trajectories were identified as the following: 'stable high fidelity' (n = 9), 'moderate and improving fidelity' (n = 6), and 'unstable fidelity' (n = 2). The stable high fidelity organizations were generally smaller, started earlier, and implemented the program in a more structured way compared to moderate and improving fidelity organizations. At the implementation period's start and end, support from physicians and physiotherapists, professionals' appreciation, and program compatibility were rated more positively by professionals working in stable high fidelity organizations as compared to the moderate and improving fidelity organizations (p < .05). Qualitative data showed that the stable high fidelity organizations had often an explicit vision and strategy about the implementation of the program. Intriguingly, the trajectories were not associated with patients' self-reported physical activity outcomes (adjusted model β = - 651.6, t(613) = - 1032, p = .303).CONCLUSIONS: Differences in organizational-level implementation fidelity trajectories did not result in outcome differences at patient-level. This suggests that an effective implementation fidelity trajectory is contingent on the local organization's conditions. More specifically, achieving stable high implementation fidelity required the management of tensions: realizing a localized change vision, while safeguarding the program's standardized core components and engaging the scarce physicians throughout the process. When scaling up evidence-informed health promotion programs, we propose to tailor the management of implementation tensions to local organizations' starting position, size, and circumstances.TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Netherlands National Trial Register NTR3961 . Registered 18 April 2013.
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OBJECTIVE: To identify trajectories of cognitive-affective depressive symptoms among acutely hospitalized older patients and whether trajectories are related to prognostic baseline factors and three-month outcomes such as functional decline, falls, unplanned readmissions, and mortality.METHODS: Prospective multicenter cohort of acutely hospitalized patients aged ≥ 70. Depressive trajectories were based on Group Based Trajectory Modeling, using the Geriatric Depression Scale-15. Outcomes were functional decline, falls, unplanned readmission, and mortality within three months post-discharge.RESULTS: The analytic sample included 398 patients (mean age = 79.6 years; SD = 6.6). Three distinct depressive symptoms trajectories were identified: minimal (63.6%), mild persistent (25.4%), and severe persistent (11.0%). Unadjusted results showed that, compared to the minimal symptoms group, the mild and severe persistent groups showed a significantly higher risk of functional decline (mild: OR = 3.9, p < .001; severe: OR = 3.0, p = .04), falls (mild: OR = 2.0, p = .02; severe: OR = 6.0, p < .001), and mortality (mild: OR = 2.2, p = .05; severe: OR = 3.4, p = .009). Patients with mild or severe persistent symptoms were more malnourished, anxious, and functionally limited and had more medical comorbidities at admission.CONCLUSION: Nearly 40% of the acutely hospitalized older adults exhibited mild to severe levels of cognitive-affective depressive symptoms. In light of the substantially elevated risk of serious complications and the fact that elevated depressive symptoms was not a transient phenomenon identification of these patients is needed. This further emphasizes the need for acute care hospitals, as a point of engagement with older adults, to develop discharge or screening procedures for managing cognitive-affective depressive symptoms.
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To evaluate the 5-year course of physical work capacity of participants with early symptomatic osteoarthritis (OA) of the hip and/or the knee; to identify trajectories and explore the relationship between trajectories and covariates. Methods In a prospective cohort study, physical work capacity was measured at baseline, using a test protocol (functional capacity evaluation) consisting of work-related physical activities. Participants were invited to participate in 1, 2 and 5 year follow-up measurements. Multilevel analysis and latent classes analysis were performed, in models with test performances as dependent variables and age, sex, work status, self-reported function (Western Ontario McMasters Arthritis Scale-WOMAC), body mass index (BMI) and time as independent variables. Multiple imputation was used to control for the influence of missing data. Results At baseline and after 1, 2 and 5 years there were 96, 64, 61 and 35 participants. Mean (SD) age at baseline was 56 (4.9) years, 84% were females. There was no statistically significant change in test performances (lifting low and high, carrying, static overhead work, repetitive bending, repetitive rotations) between the 4 measurements. Male sex, younger age and better self-reported function were statistically significant (p < 0.05) determinants of higher performance on most of the tests; having a paid job, BMI and progression of time were not. Three trajectories were identified: 'weak giving way', 'stable and able', and 'strong with decline'. Discussion In subgroups of participants with early symptomatic OA, determined by age, sex and self-reported function, physical work capacity seems to be a stable characteristic over 5 years.
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Study Design. Prospective cohort study.Objective. The aim of this study was to identify treatment response trajectories in patients with low back pain (LBP) during and after multidisciplinary care in a tertiary spine center, and to examine baseline patient characteristics that can distinguish trajectories.Summary of Background Data. Treatment response is often heterogeneous between patients with LBP. Knowledge on key characteristics that are associated with courses of disability could identify patients at risk for less favorable outcome. This knowledge will help improve shared decision-making.Methods. Adult patients with LBP completed questionnaires on disability (Pain Disability Index) and LBP impact (Impact Stratification of the National Institutes of Health minimal dataset) at baseline, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months’ follow-up. Latent class analyses were applied to identify trajectories of disability and LBP impact. Baseline sociodemographic and clinical patient characteristics were compared between trajectory subgroups.Results. Follow-up was available for 996 patients on disability and 707 patients on LBP impact. Six trajectories were identified for both outcome measures. Three disability trajectories remained stable at distinct levels of severity (68% of patients) and three trajectories showed patterns of recovery (32%). For LBP impact there was one stable trajectory (17%), two slightly improving (59%), two recovering (15%), and one with a pattern of recovery and relapse (15%). Significant differences between trajectories were observed for almost all baseline patient characteristics.Conclusion. On average, patients show moderate improvements in disability and LBP impact 2 years after visiting a multidisciplinary tertiary spine center. However, latent class analyses revealed that most patients belong to subgroups experiencing stable levels of disability and LBP impact. Differences in baseline patient characteristics were mostly associated with baseline levels of functioning, instead of (un)favorable outcome during follow-up.
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