The current western agrifood system is highly successful in providing for human needs. However, the dominant agricultural approach of up-scaling and specialisation is put under pressure by a number of developments in the global landscape. Global developments such as population growth, pollution, soil degradation and climate change, in which agriculture plays a crucial role, make the need for a transition towards a paradigm with a broader range of values evident. Niche initiatives often develop as a reaction to needs not fulfilled by the regime. Therefore, certain niches may have the potential of driving a necessary transition. This research aims to determine if permaculture, being a niche, has this potential. The main question for this research was formulated as follows: How can a production system based on permaculture principles contribute to the agrifood transition? To answer this question, relevant current trends and global developments were used as a basis for developing a future scenario. Empirical qualitative data on permaculture businesses in the Netherlands was gathered as well, of which the results were used for a determination of permaculture’s performance in this future scenario. This was done by comparing a standardised permaculture system with a conventional potato system. As a result of this comparison, the Unique Selling Points of permaculture were identified, which determine the future potential of permaculture.
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Societal actors across scales and geographies increasingly demand visual applications of systems thinking – the process of understanding and changing the reality of a system by considering its whole set of interdependencies – to address complex problems affecting food and agriculture. Yet, despite the wide offer of systems mapping tools, there is still little guidance for managers, policy-makers, civil society and changemakers in food and agriculture on how to choose, combine and use these tools on the basis of a sufficiently deep understanding of socio-ecological systems. Unfortunately, actors seeking to address complex problems with inadequate understandings of systems often have limited influence on the socio-ecological systems they inhabit, and sometimes even generate unintended negative consequences. Hence, we first review, discuss and exemplify seven key features of systems that should be – but rarely have been – incorporated in strategic decisions in the agri-food sector: interdependency, level-multiplicity, dynamism, path dependency, self-organization, non-linearity and complex causality. Second, on the basis of these features, we propose a collective process to systems mapping that grounds on the notion that the configuration of problems (i.e., how multiple issues entangle with each other) and the configuration of actors (i.e., how multiple actors relate to each other and share resources) represent two sides of the same coin. Third, we provide implications for societal actors - including decision-makers, trainers and facilitators - using systems mapping to trigger or accelerate systems change in five purposive ways: targeting multiple goals; generating ripple effects; mitigating unintended consequences; tackling systemic constraints, and collaborating with unconventional partners.
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