Background: Modern modeling techniques may potentially provide more accurate predictions of dichotomous outcomes than classical techniques. Objective: In this study, we aimed to examine the predictive performance of eight modeling techniques to predict mortality by frailty. Methods: We performed a longitudinal study with a 7-year follow-up. The sample consisted of 479 Dutch community-dwelling people, aged 75 years and older. Frailty was assessed with the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI), a self-report questionnaire. This questionnaire consists of eight physical, four psychological, and three social frailty components. The municipality of Roosendaal, a city in the Netherlands, provided the mortality dates. We compared modeling techniques, such as support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), random forest, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, as well as classical techniques, such as logistic regression, two Bayesian networks, and recursive partitioning (RP). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) indicated the performance of the models. The models were validated using bootstrapping. Results: We found that the NN model had the best validated performance (AUROC=0.812), followed by the SVM model (AUROC=0.705). The other models had validated AUROC values below 0.700. The RP model had the lowest validated AUROC (0.605). The NN model had the highest optimism (0.156). The predictor variable “difficulty in walking” was important for all models. Conclusions: Because of the high optimism of the NN model, we prefer the SVM model for predicting mortality among community-dwelling older people using the TFI, with the addition of “gender” and “age” variables. External validation is a necessary step before applying the prediction models in a new setting.
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Abstract Aims: To lower the threshold for applying ultrasound (US) guidance during peripheral intravenous cannulation, nurses need to be trained and gain experience in using this technique. The primary outcome was to quantify the number of procedures novices require to perform before competency in US-guided peripheral intravenous cannulation was achieved. Materials and methods: A multicenter prospective observational study, divided into two phases after a theoretical training session: a handson training session and a supervised life-case training session. The number of US-guided peripheral intravenous cannulations a participant needed to perform in the life-case setting to become competent was the outcome of interest. Cusum analysis was used to determine the learning curve of each individual participant. Results: Forty-nine practitioners participated and performed 1855 procedures. First attempt cannulation success was 73% during the first procedure, but increased to 98% on the fortieth attempt (p<0.001). The overall first attempt success rate during this study was 93%. The cusum learning curve for each practitioner showed that a mean number of 34 procedures was required to achieve competency. Time needed to perform a procedure successfully decreased when more experience was achieved by the practitioner, from 14±3 minutes on first procedure to 3±1 minutes during the fortieth procedure (p<0.001). Conclusions: Competency in US-guided peripheral intravenous cannulation can be gained after following a fixed educational curriculum, resulting in an increased first attempt cannulation success as the number of performed procedures increased.
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Abstract BackgroundFrailty is a syndrome that is defined as an accumulation of deficits in physical, psychological, and social domains. On a global scale, there is an urgent need to create frailty-ready healthcare systems due to the healthcare burden that frailty confers on systems and the increased risk of falls, healthcare utilization, disability, and premature mortality. Several studies have been conducted to develop prediction models for predicting frailty. Most studies used logistic regression as a technique to develop a prediction model. One area that has experienced significant growth is the application of Bayesian techniques, partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. ObjectiveWe compared ten different Bayesian networks as proposed by ten experts in the field of frail elderly people to predict frailty with a choice from ten dichotomized determinants for frailty. MethodsWe used the opinion of ten experts who could indicate, using an empty Bayesian network graph, the important predictors for frailty and the interactions between the different predictors. The candidate predictors were age, sex, marital status, ethnicity, education, income, lifestyle, multimorbidity, life events, and home living environment. The ten Bayesian network models were evaluated in terms of their ability to predict frailty. For the evaluation, we used the data of 479 participants that filled in the Tilburg Frailty indicator (TFI) questionnaire for assessing frailty among community-dwelling older people. The data set contained the aforementioned variables and the outcome ”frail”. The model fit of each model was measured using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the predictive performance of the models was measured using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic (ROC). The AUCs of the models were validated using bootstrapping with 100 repetitions. The relative importance of the predictors in the models was calculated using the permutation feature importance algorithm (PFI). ResultsThe ten Bayesian networks of the ten experts differed considerably regarding the predictors and the connections between the predictors and the outcome. However, all ten networks had corrected AUCs 0.700. Evaluating the importance of the predictors in each model, ”diseases or chronic disorders” was the most important predictor in all models (10 times). The predictors ”lifestyle” and ”monthly income” were also often present in the models (both 6 times). One or more diseases or chronic disorders, an unhealthy lifestyle, and a monthly income below 1,800 euro increased the likelihood of frailty. ConclusionsAlthough the ten experts all made different graphs, the predictive performance was always satisfying (AUCs 0.700). While it is true that the predictor importance varied all the time, the top three of the predictor importance consisted of “diseases or chronic disorders”, “lifestyle” and “monthly income”. All in all, asking for the opinion of experts in the field of frail elderly to predict frailty with Bayesian networks may be more rewarding than a data-driven forecast with Bayesian networks because they have expert knowledge regarding interactions between the different predictors.
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Standard SARS-CoV-2 testing protocols using nasopharyngeal/throat (NP/T) swabs are invasive and require trained medical staff for reliable sampling. In addition, it has been shown that PCR is more sensitive as compared to antigen-based tests. Here we describe the analytical and clinical evaluation of our in-house RNA extraction-free saliva-based molecular assay for the detection of SARS-CoV-2. Analytical sensitivity of the test was equal to the sensitivity obtained in other Dutch diagnostic laboratories that process NP/T swabs. In this study, 955 individuals participated and provided NP/T swabs for routine molecular analysis (with RNA extraction) and saliva for comparison. Our RT-qPCR resulted in a sensitivity of 82,86% and a specificity of 98,94% compared to the gold standard. A false-negative ratio of 1,9% was found. The SARS-CoV-2 detection workflow described here enables easy, economical, and reliable saliva processing, useful for repeated testing of individuals.
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Abstract Background One of the most problematic expression of ageing is frailty, and an approach based on its early identification is mandatory. The Sunfrail-tool (ST), a 9-item questionnaire, is a promising instrument for screening frailty. Aims • To assess the diagnostic accuracy and the construct validity between the ST and a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), composed by six tests representative of the bio-psycho-social model of frailty; • To verify the discriminating power of five key-questions of the ST; • To investigate the role of the ST in a clinical-pathway of falls’ prevention. Methods In this retrospective study, we enrolled 235 patients from the Frailty-Multimorbidity Lab of the University-Hospital of Parma. The STs’ answers were obtained from the patient’s clinical information. A patient was considered frail if at least one of the CGAs’ tests resulted positive. Results The ST was associated with the CGA’s judgement with an Area Under the Curve of 0.691 (CI 95%: 0.591–0.791). Each CGA’s test was associated with the ST total score. The five key-question showed a potential discriminating power in the CGA’s tests of the corresponding domains. The fall-related question of the ST was significantly associated with the Short Physical Performance Battery total score (OR: 0.839, CI 95%: 0.766–0.918), a proxy of the risk of falling. Discussion The results suggest that the ST can capture the complexity of frailty. The ST showed a good discriminating power, and it can guide a second-level assessment to key frailty domains and/or clinical pathways. Conclusions The ST is a valid and easy-to-use instrument for the screening of frailty.
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Abstract The aim of this cross-sectional study was to develop a Frailty at Risk Scale (FARS) incorporating ten well-known determinants of frailty: age, sex, marital status, ethnicity, education, income, lifestyle, multimorbidity, life events, and home living environment. In addition, a second aim was to develop an online calculator that can easily support healthcare professionals in determining the risk of frailty among community-dwelling older people. The FARS was developed using data of 373 people aged ≥ 75 years. The Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI) was used for assessing frailty. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the determinants multimorbidity, unhealthy lifestyle, and ethnicity (ethnic minority) were the most important predictors. The area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.811 (optimism 0.019, 95% bootstrap CI = −0.029; 0.064). The FARS is offered on a Web site, so that it can be easily used by healthcare professionals, allowing quick intervention in promoting quality of life among community-dwelling older people.
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In this thesis several studies are presented that have targeted decision making about case management plans in probation. In a case management plan probation officers describe the goals and interventions that should help offenders stop reoffending, and the specific measures necessary to reduce acute risks of recidivism and harm. Such a plan is embedded in a judicial framework, a sanction or advice about the sanction in which these interventions and measures should be executed. The topic of this thesis is the use of structured decision support, and the question is if this can improve decision making about case management plans in probation and subsequently improve the effectiveness of offender supervision. In this chapter we first sketch why structured decision making was introduced in the Dutch probation services. Next we describe the instrument for risk and needs assessment as well as the procedure to develop case management plans that are used by the Dutch probation services and that are investigated in this thesis. Then we describe the setting of the studies and the research questions, and we conclude with an overview of this thesis.
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Objective To develop and internally validate a prognostic model to predict chronic pain after a new episode of acute or subacute non-specific idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain in patients presenting to physiotherapy primary care, emphasising modifiable biomedical, psychological and social factors. Design A prospective cohort study with a 6-month follow-up between January 2020 and March 2023. Setting 30 physiotherapy primary care practices. Participants Patients with a new presentation of non-specific idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain, with a duration lasting no longer than 12 weeks from onset. Baseline measures Candidate prognostic variables collected from participants included age and sex, neck pain symptoms, work-related factors, general factors, psychological and behavioural factors and the remaining factors: therapeutic relation and healthcare provider attitude. Outcome measures Pain intensity at 6 weeks, 3 months and 6 months on a Numeric Pain Rating Scale (NPRS) after inclusion. An NPRS score of ≥3 at each time point was used to define chronic neck pain. Results 62 (10%) of the 603 participants developed chronic neck pain. The prognostic factors in the final model were sex, pain intensity, reported pain in different body regions, headache since and before the neck pain, posture during work, employment status, illness beliefs about pain identity and recovery, treatment beliefs, distress and self-efficacy. The model demonstrated an optimism-corrected area under the curve of 0.83 and a corrected R2 of 0.24. Calibration was deemed acceptable to good, as indicated by the calibration curve. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test yielded a p-value of 0.7167, indicating a good model fit. Conclusion This model has the potential to obtain a valid prognosis for developing chronic pain after a new episode of acute and subacute non-specific idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain. It includes mostly potentially modifiable factors for physiotherapy practice. External validation of this model is recommended.
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Objective: This exploratory study investigated to what extent gait characteristics and clinical physical therapy assessments predict falls in chronic stroke survivors. Design: Prospective study. Subjects: Chronic fall-prone and non-fall-prone stroke survivors. Methods: Steady-state gait characteristics were collected from 40 participants while walking on a treadmill with motion capture of spatio-temporal, variability, and stability measures. An accelerometer was used to collect daily-life gait characteristics during 7 days. Six physical and psychological assessments were administered. Fall events were determined using a “fall calendar” and monthly phone calls over a 6-month period. After data reduction through principal component analysis, the predictive capacity of each method was determined by logistic regression. Results: Thirty-eight percent of the participants were classified as fallers. Laboratory-based and daily-life gait characteristics predicted falls acceptably well, with an area under the curve of, 0.73 and 0.72, respectively, while fall predictions from clinical assessments were limited (0.64). Conclusion: Independent of the type of gait assessment, qualitative gait characteristics are better fall predictors than clinical assessments. Clinicians should therefore consider gait analyses as an alternative for identifying fall-prone stroke survivors.
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Objective: The Tilburg Frailty Instrument (TFI) is an instrument for assessing frailty in community-dwelling older people. Since its development, many studies have been carried out examining the psychometric properties. The aim of this study was to provide a review of the main findings with regard to the reliability and validity of the TFI. Methods: We conducted a literature search in the PubMed and CINAHL databases on May 30, 2020. An inclusion criterion was the use of the entire TFI, part B, referring to the 15 components. No restrictions were placed on language or year of publication. Results: In total, 27 studies reported about the psychometric properties of the TFI. By far, most of the studies (n = 25) were focused on community-dwelling older people. Many studies showed that the internal consistency and test–retest reliability are good, which also applies for the criterion and construct validity. In many studies, adverse outcomes of interest were disability, increased health-care utilization, lower quality of life, and mortality. Regarding disability, studies predominantly show results that are excellent, with an area under the curve (AUC) >0.80. In addition, the TFI showed good associations with lower quality of life and the findings concerning mortality were at least acceptable. However, the association of the TFI with some indicators of health-care utilization can be indicated as poor (eg, visits to a general practitioner, hospitalization). Conclusion: Since population aging is occurring all over the world, it is important that the TFI is available and well known that it is a user-friendly instrument for assessing frailty and its psychometric properties being qualified as good. The findings of this assessment can support health-care professionals in selecting interventions to reduce frailty and delay its adverse outcomes, such as disability and lower quality of life.
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