In this article three different responses are taken as the starting point how different types of disruption could be dealt with. These responses—repair, bounce back and grow stronger—are combined with three disruptions (sea level rise, storm surge and heavy rainfall), and then tested in three case studies. The result of the investigation is that anti-fragility (grow stronger) is a preferential approach to create delta landscapes that become stronger under influence of a disruption. Anti-fragility is for this research subdivided in three main characteristics, abundance of networks, adaptivity and counterintuitivity, which are used to analyse the three case study propositions. The type of response, type of disruption, characteristic of anti-fragility and the qualities of the case study area itself determine the design proposition and the outcome. In all cases this approach has led to a stronger and safer landscape. The concept of anti-fragility impacts on the period before a disruption, during and also after the disruptive impact. This gives it a better point of departure in dealing with uncertain or unprecedented hazards and disruptions.
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Predation risk is a major driver of the distribution of prey animals, which typically show strong responses to cues for predator presence. An unresolved question is whether naïve individuals respond to mimicked cues, and whether such cues can be used to deter prey. We investigated whether playback of wolf sounds induces fear responses in naïve ungulates in a human-dominated landscape from which wolves have been eradicated since 1879. We conducted a playback experiment in mixed-coniferous and broadleaved forest that harboured three cervid and one suid species. At 36 locations, we played wolf sounds, sounds of local sheep or no sounds, consecutively, in random order, and recorded visit rate and group size, using camera traps. Visit rates of cervids and wild boar showed a clear initial reduction to playback of both wolf and sheep sounds, but the type of response differed between sound, forest type and species. For naïve wild boar in particular, responses to predator cues depended on forest type. Effects on visit rate disappeared within 21 days. Group sizes in all the species were not affected by the sound treatment. Our findings suggest that the responses of naïve ungulates to wolf sound seem to be species specific, depend on forest type and wear off in time, indicating habituation. Before we can successfully deter ungulates using predator sound, we should further investigate how different forest types affect the perception of naïve ungulates to these sounds, as responses to predator sound may depend on habitat characteristics.
MULTIFILE
Triggered by recent flood catastrophes and increasing concerns about climate change, scientists as well as policy-makers increasingly call for making long-term water policies to enable a transformation towards flood resilience. A key question is how to make these long-term policies adaptive so that they are able to deal with uncertainties and changing circumstances. The paper proposes three conditions for making long-term water policies adaptive, which are then used to evaluate a new Dutch water policy approach called 'Adaptive Delta Management'. Analysing this national policy approach and its translation to the Rotterdam region reveals that Dutch policy-makers are torn between adaptability and the urge to control. Reflecting on this dilemma, the paper suggests a stronger focus on monitoring and learning to strengthen the adaptability of long-term water policies. Moreover, increasing the adaptive capacity of society also requires a stronger engagement with local stakeholders including citizens and businesses.
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