The built environment requires energy-flexible buildings to reduce energy peak loads and to maximize the use of (decentralized) renewable energy sources. The challenge is to arrive at smart control strategies that respond to the increasing variations in both the energy demand as well as the variable energy supply. This enables grid integration in existing energy networks with limited capacity and maximises use of decentralized sustainable generation. Buildings can play a key role in the optimization of the grid capacity by applying demand-side management control. To adjust the grid energy demand profile of a building without compromising the user requirements, the building should acquire some energy flexibility capacity. The main ambition of the Brains for Buildings Work Package 2 is to develop smart control strategies that use the operational flexibility of non-residential buildings to minimize energy costs, reduce emissions and avoid spikes in power network load, without compromising comfort levels. To realise this ambition the following key components will be developed within the B4B WP2: (A) Development of open-source HVAC and electric services models, (B) development of energy demand prediction models and (C) development of flexibility management control models. This report describes the developed first two key components, (A) and (B). This report presents different prediction models covering various building components. The models are from three different types: white box models, grey-box models, and black-box models. Each model developed is presented in a different chapter. The chapters start with the goal of the prediction model, followed by the description of the model and the results obtained when applied to a case study. The models developed are two approaches based on white box models (1) White box models based on Modelica libraries for energy prediction of a building and its components and (2) Hybrid predictive digital twin based on white box building models to predict the dynamic energy response of the building and its components. (3) Using CO₂ monitoring data to derive either ventilation flow rate or occupancy. (4) Prediction of the heating demand of a building. (5) Feedforward neural network model to predict the building energy usage and its uncertainty. (6) Prediction of PV solar production. The first model aims to predict the energy use and energy production pattern of different building configurations with open-source software, OpenModelica, and open-source libraries, IBPSA libraries. The white-box model simulation results are used to produce design and control advice for increasing the building energy flexibility. The use of the libraries for making a model has first been tested in a simple residential unit, and now is being tested in a non-residential unit, the Haagse Hogeschool building. The lessons learned show that it is possible to model a building by making use of a combination of libraries, however the development of the model is very time consuming. The test also highlighted the need for defining standard scenarios to test the energy flexibility and the need for a practical visualization if the simulation results are to be used to give advice about potential increase of the energy flexibility. The goal of the hybrid model, which is based on a white based model for the building and systems and a data driven model for user behaviour, is to predict the energy demand and energy supply of a building. The model's application focuses on the use case of the TNO building at Stieltjesweg in Delft during a summer period, with a specific emphasis on cooling demand. Preliminary analysis shows that the monitoring results of the building behaviour is in line with the simulation results. Currently, development is in progress to improve the model predictions by including the solar shading from surrounding buildings, models of automatic shading devices, and model calibration including the energy use of the chiller. The goal of the third model is to derive recent and current ventilation flow rate over time based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and occupancy, as well as deriving recent and current occupancy over time, based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. The grey-box model used is based on the GEKKO python tool. The model was tested with the data of 6 Windesheim University of Applied Sciences office rooms. The model had low precision deriving the ventilation flow rate, especially at low CO2 concentration rates. The model had a good precision deriving occupancy from CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. Further research is needed to determine if these findings apply in different situations, such as meeting spaces and classrooms. The goal of the fourth chapter is to compare the working of a simplified white box model and black-box model to predict the heating energy use of a building. The aim is to integrate these prediction models in the energy management system of SME buildings. The two models have been tested with data from a residential unit since at the time of the analysis the data of a SME building was not available. The prediction models developed have a low accuracy and in their current form cannot be integrated in an energy management system. In general, black-box model prediction obtained a higher accuracy than the white box model. The goal of the fifth model is to predict the energy use in a building using a black-box model and measure the uncertainty in the prediction. The black-box model is based on a feed-forward neural network. The model has been tested with the data of two buildings: educational and commercial buildings. The strength of the model is in the ensemble prediction and the realization that uncertainty is intrinsically present in the data as an absolute deviation. Using a rolling window technique, the model can predict energy use and uncertainty, incorporating possible building-use changes. The testing in two different cases demonstrates the applicability of the model for different types of buildings. The goal of the sixth and last model developed is to predict the energy production of PV panels in a building with the use of a black-box model. The choice for developing the model of the PV panels is based on the analysis of the main contributors of the peak energy demand and peak energy delivery in the case of the DWA office building. On a fault free test set, the model meets the requirements for a calibrated model according to the FEMP and ASHRAE criteria for the error metrics. According to the IPMVP criteria the model should be improved further. The results of the performance metrics agree in range with values as found in literature. For accurate peak prediction a year of training data is recommended in the given approach without lagged variables. This report presents the results and lessons learned from implementing white-box, grey-box and black-box models to predict energy use and energy production of buildings or of variables directly related to them. Each of the models has its advantages and disadvantages. Further research in this line is needed to develop the potential of this approach.
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De Europese energiekosten zijn torenhoog. “Wegduiken in de hoop dat het wel goed komt, is onmogelijk geworden nadat Draghi opschreef wat niemand in Brussel durfde te zeggen. De nieuwe EU-commissie publiceert nu het “Action Plan for Affordable Energy”, dat een waslijst aan voorstellen en voornemens bevat waar iedereen wel iets van zijn gading in kan vinden. De cynici niet uitgezonderd. Ik zie het glas als half vol.”
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Increasing urbanization and the effects of climate change will bring new challenges for cities, such as energy saving and supply of renewable energy, preventing urban heat islands and water retention to deal with more frequent downpours. A major urban surface, the surface of roofs, is nowadays hardly exploited and could be used to make cities more ‘future proof’ or resilient. Many Dutch municipalities have become aware that the use of green roofs as opposed to bituminous roofs positively contributes to these challenges and are stimulating building-owners to retrofit their building with green roofs. This study aims at comparing costs and benefits of roof types, focused on green roofs (intensive and extensive) both on building- and city scale. Core question is the balance between costs and benefits for both scales, given varying local conditions. Which policy measures might be needed in the future in order to apply green roofs strategically in regard to local demands? To answer this question the balance of costs and benefits of green roofs is divided into a public and an individual part. Both balances use a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats framework to determine the chance of success for the application of green roofs, considering that the balance for green roofs on an individual scale influences the balance on a public scale. The outcome of this combined analyses in the conclusion verifies that a responsible policy and a local approach towards green roofs is necessary to prepare the city sufficiently for future climate changes. http://dx.doi.org/10.13044/j.sdewes.d6.0225
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This paper assesses wind resource characteristics and energy yield for micro wind turbines integrated on noise barriers. An experimental set-up with sonic anemometers placed on top of the barrier in reference positions is realized. The effect on wind speed magnitude, inflow angle and turbulence intensity is analysed. The annual energy yield of a micro wind turbine is estimated and compared using data from a micro-wind turbine wind tunnel experiment and field data. Electrical energy costs are discussed as well as structural integration cost reduction and the potential energy yield could decrease costs. It was found that instantaneous wind direction towards the barrier and the height of observation play an influential role for the results. Wind speed increases in perpendicular flows while decreases in parallel flow, by +35% down to −20% from the reference. The azimuth of the noise barrier expressed in wind field rotation angles was found to be influential resulted in 50%–130% changes with respect to annual energy yield. A micro wind turbine (0.375 kW) would produce between 100 and 600 kWh annually. Finally, cost analysis with cost reductions due to integration and the energy yield changes due to the barrier, show a LCOE reduction at 60%–90% of the reference value. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2020.104206
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Renewable energy sources have an intermittent character that does not necessarily match energy demand. Such imbalances tend to increase system cost as they require mitigation measures and this is undesirable when available resources should be focused on increasing renewable energy supply. Matching supply and demand should therefore be inherent to early stages of system design, to avoid mismatch costs to the greatest extent possible and we need guidelines for that. This paper delivers such guidelines by exploring design of hybrid wind and solar energy and unusual large solar installation angles. The hybrid wind and solar energy supply and energy demand is studied with an analytical analysis of average monthly energy yields in The Netherlands, Spain and Britain, capacity factor statistics and a dynamic energy supply simulation. The analytical focus in this paper differs from that found in literature, where analyses entirely rely on simulations. Additionally, the seasonal energy yield profile of solar energy at large installation angles is studied with the web application PVGIS and an hourly simulation of the energy yield, based on the Perez model. In Europe, the energy yield of solar PV peaks during the summer months and the energy yield of wind turbines is highest during the winter months. As a consequence, three basic hybrid supply profiles, based on three different mix ratios of wind to solar PV, can be differentiated: a heating profile with high monthly energy yield during the winter months, a flat or baseload profile and a cooling profile with high monthly energy yield during the summer months. It is shown that the baseload profile in The Netherlands is achieved at a ratio of wind to solar energy yield and power of respectively Ew/Es = 1.7 and Pw/Ps = 0.6. The baseload ratio for Spain and Britain is comparable because of similar seasonal weather patterns, so that this baseload ratio is likely comparable for other European countries too. In addition to the seasonal benefits, the hybrid mix is also ideal for the short-term as wind and solar PV adds up to a total that has fewer energy supply flaws and peaks than with each energy source individually and it is shown that they are seldom (3%) both at rated power. This allows them to share one cable, allowing “cable pooling”, with curtailment to -for example-manage cable capacity. A dynamic simulation with the baseload mix supply and a flat demand reveals that a 100% and 75% yearly energy match cause a curtailment loss of respectively 6% and 1%. Curtailment losses of the baseload mix are thereby shown to be small. Tuning of the energy supply of solar panels separately is also possible. Compared to standard 40◦ slope in The Netherlands, facade panels have smaller yield during the summer months, but almost equal yield during the rest of the year, so that the total yield adds up to 72% of standard 40◦ slope panels. Additionally, an hourly energy yield simulation reveals that: façade (90◦) and 60◦ slope panels with an inverter rated at respectively 50% and 65% Wp, produce 95% of the maximum energy yield at that slope. The flatter seasonal yield profile of “large slope panels” together with decreased peak power fits Dutch demand and grid capacity more effectively.
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Energy efficiency has gained a lot of prominence in recent debates on urban sustainability and housing policy due to its potential consequences for climate change. At the local, national and also international level, there are numerous initiatives to promote energy savings and the use of renewable energy to reduce the environmental burden. There is a lot of literature on energy saving and other forms of energy efficiency in housing. However, how to bring this forward in the management of individual housing organisations is not often internationally explored. An international research project has been carried out to find the answers on management questions of housing organisations regarding energy efficiency. Eleven countries have been included in this study: Germany, the United Kingdom (more specifically: England), France, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Austria and Canada. The state of the art of energy efficiency in the housing management of non-profit housing organisations and the embedding of energy efficiency to improve the quality and performance of housing in management practices have been investigated, with a focus on how policy ambitions about energy efficiency are brought forward in investment decisions at the estate level. This paper presents the conclusions of the research
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Peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading has been recognized as an important technology to increase the local self-consumption of photovoltaics in the local energy system. Different auction mechanisms and bidding strategies haven been investigated in previous studies. However, there has been no comparatively analysis on how different market structures influence the local energy system’s overall performance. This paper presents and compares two market structures, namely a centralized market and a decentralized market. Two pricing mechanisms in the centralized market and two bidding strategies in the decentralized market are developed. The results show that the centralized market leads to higher overall system self-consumption and profits. In the decentralized market, some electricity is directly sold to the grid due to unmatchable bids and asks. Bidding strategies based on the learning algorithm can achieve better performance compared to the random method.
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Citizen participation in local renewable energy projects is often promoted as many suppose it to be a panacea for the difficulties that are involved in the energy transition process. Quite evidently, it is not; there is a wide variety of visions, ideologies and interests related to an ‘energy transition’. Such a variety is actually a precondition for a stakeholder participation process, as stakeholder participation only makes sense if there is ‘something at stake’. Conflicting viewpoints, interests and debates are the essence of participation. The success of stakeholder participation implies that these differences are acknowledged, and discussed, and that this has created mutual understanding among stakeholders. It does not necessarily create ‘acceptance’. Renewable energy projects often give rise to local conflict. The successful implementation of local renewable energy systems depends on the support of the local social fabric. While at one hand decisions to construct wind turbines in specific regions trigger local resistance, the opposite also occurs! Solar parks sometimes create a similar variation: Various communities try to prevent the construction of solar parks in their vicinity, while other communities proudly present their parks. Altogether, local renewable energy initiatives create a rather chaotic picture, if regarded from the perspective of government planning. However, if we regard the successes, it appears the top down initiatives are most successful in areas with a weak social fabric, like industrial areas, or rather recently reclaimed land. Deeply rooted communities, virtually only have successful renewable energy projects that are more or less bottom up initiatives. This paper will first sketch why participation is important, and present a categorisation of processes and procedures that could be applied. It also sketches a number of myths and paradoxes that might occur in participation processes. ‘Compensating’ individuals and/or communities to accept wind turbines or solar parks is not sufficient to gain ‘acceptance’. A basic feature of many debates on local renewable energy projects is about ‘fairness’. The implication is that decision-making is neither on pros and cons of various renewable energy technologies as such, nor on what citizens are obliged to accept, but on a fair distribution of costs and benefits. Such discussions on fairness cannot be short cut by referring to legal rules, scientific evidence, or to standard financial compensations. History plays a role as old feelings of being disadvantaged, both at individual and at group level, might re-emerge in such debates. The paper will provide an overview of various local controversies on renewable energy initiatives in the Netherlands. It will argue that an open citizen participation process can be organized to work towards fair decisions, and that citizens should not be addressed as greedy subjects, trying to optimise their own private interests, but as responsible persons.
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Energiebeheer gericht aanpakken, Het analyseren van doelstellingen, resultaten en impacts van energie- en broeikasgasbeheersprogramma’s in bedrijven (met een samenvatting in het Nederlands): De wereldwijde uitstoot van broeikasgassen moet drastisch worden teruggebracht om de mondiale stijging van de temperatuur tot het relatief veilige niveau van maximaal 2 graden Celsius te beperken. In de komende decennia zal de verbetering van de energie-efficiëntie de belangrijkste strategie zijn voor het verminderen van de energiegerelateerde uitstoot van broeikasgassen. Hoewel er een enorm potentieel is voor verbetering van de energie-efficiëntie, wordt een groot deel daarvan nog niet benut. Dit wordt veroorzaakt door diverse investeringsbarrières die de invoering van maatregelen voor energie-efficiëntie verbetering verhinderen. De invoering van energiemanagement wordt vaak beschouwd als een manier om dergelijke barrières voor energiebesparing te overwinnen. De invoering van energiemanagement in bedrijven kan worden gestimuleerd door de introductie van programma's voor energie-efficiëntie verbetering en vermindering van de uitstoot van broeikasgassen. Deze programma's zijn vaak een combinatie van verschillende elementen zoals verplichtingen voor energiemanagement; (ambitieuze) doelstellingen voor energiebesparing of beperking van de uitstoot van broeikasgassen; de beschikbaarheid van regelingen voor stimulering, ondersteuning en naleving; en andere verplichtingen, zoals openbare rapportages, certificering en verificatie. Tot nu toe is er echter beperkt inzicht in het proces van het formuleren van ambitieuze doelstellingen voor energie-efficiëntie verbetering of het terugdringen van de uitstoot van broeikasgassen binnen deze programma's, in de gevolgen van de invoering van dergelijke programma's op de verbetering van het energiemanagement, en in de impact van deze programma's op energiebesparing of de vermindering van de uitstoot van broeikasgassen. De centrale onderzoeksvraag van dit proefschrift is als volgt geformuleerd: "Wat is de impact van energie- en broeikasgasmanagement programma’s op het verbeteren van het energiemanagement in de praktijk, het versnellen van de energieefficiëntie verbetering en het beperken van de uitstoot van broeikasgassen in bedrijven?".
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Energy poverty is a growing concern in the Netherlands due to the rising gas and electricity prices. There are three main contributors to energy poverty: low income, high fuel costs and energy inefficient homes. Energy poverty effects can have significant consequences, influencing both physical and mental health, increasing the chances of becoming trapped in a cycle of poverty and social isolation. Usually, policy making approaches to combat energy poverty mainly focus on financial support on a household scale or on prices regulating efforts. However, this study argues that actions on a community level could also contribute to alleviating the impacts that energy poverty has on citizens’ lives. For example, community centers in low-income neighborhoods could potentially play a catalyst role in alleviating the effects of energy poverty by exemplifying energy saving techniques, catering to the needs of residents, increasing social cohesion and inspiring collective action. This research explores strategic design interventions through a whole system’s lens; social, energy and nature, that can be applied to the new VanHouten community center in the Oosterpark district of Groningen, the Netherlands. This is a historic, former school building, under a restoration and reuse process, owned by the municipality. Literature reviews, participatory events and interviews have been used to explore the possibilities to mitigate energy poverty, within a research by design process. Beyond the local case, the findings lay the groundwork for more systematic studies on how to alleviate the impact of energy poverty on a community level.
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