The interaction between physical drivers from oceanographic, hydrological, and meteorological processes in coastal areas can result in compound flooding. Compound flood events, like Cyclone Idai and Hurricane Harvey, have revealed the devastating consequences of the co-occurrence of coastal and river floods. A number of studies have recently investigated the likelihood of compound flooding at the continental scale based on simulated variables of flood drivers, such as storm surge, precipitation, and river discharges. At the global scale, this has only been performed based on observations, thereby excluding a large extent of the global coastline. The purpose of this study is to fill this gap and identify regions with a high compound flooding potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes in river mouths globally. To do so, we use daily time series of river discharge and storm surge from state-of-the-art global models driven with consistent meteorological forcing from reanalysis datasets. We measure the compound flood potential by analysing both variables with respect to their timing, joint statistical dependence, and joint return period. Our analysis indicates many regions that deviate from statistical independence and could not be identified in previous global studies based on observations alone, such as Madagascar, northern Morocco, Vietnam, and Taiwan. We report possible causal mechanisms for the observed spatial patterns based on existing literature. Finally, we provide preliminary insights on the implications of the bivariate dependence behaviour on the flood hazard characterisation using Madagascar as a case study. Our global and local analyses show that the dependence structure between flood drivers can be complex and can significantly impact the joint probability of discharge and storm surge extremes. These emphasise the need to refine global flood risk assessments and emergency planning to account for these potential interactions.
MULTIFILE
Permanent grassland soils can act as a sink for carbon and may therefore positively contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. We compared young (5–15 years since latest grassland renewal) with old (>20 years since latest grassland renewal) permanent grassland soils in terms of carbon stock, carbon sequestration, drought tolerance and flood resistance. The research was carried out on marine clay soil at 10 dairy farms with young and old permanent grassland. As hypothesized, the carbon stock was larger in old grassland (62 Mg C ha−1) topsoil (0–10 cm) than in young grassland topsoil (51 Mg C ha−1). The carbon sequestration rate was greater in young (on average 3.0 Mg C ha−1 year−1) compared with old grassland (1.6 Mg C ha−1 year−1) and determined by initial carbon stock. Regarding potential drought tolerance, we found larger soil moisture and soil organic matter (SOM) contents in old compared with young grassland topsoils. As hypothesized, the old grassland soils were more resistant to heavy rainfall as measured by water infiltration rate and macroporosity (at 20 cm depth) in comparison with the young grassland soils. In contrast to our hypothesis we did not find a difference in rooting between young and old permanent grassland, probably due to large variability in root biomass and root tip density. We conclude that old grasslands at dairy farms on clay soil can contribute more to the ecosystem services climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation than young grasslands. This study shows that under real farm conditions on a clay topsoil, carbon stock increases with grassland age and even after 30 years carbon saturation has not been reached. Further study is warranted to determine by how much extending grassland age can contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation.
MULTIFILE
Natural disasters are a growing concern around the globe. In the Netherlands, water has always played an important role as both friend and enemy. To quickly analyze and visualise possible disaster outcomes has been really difficult. In collaboration with engineering company Tauw we improved this modellingwith an interdisciplinary team of GIS experts, High performance computing and real time visualisation. In a pilot for the city center of Groningen we developed a 3D version of flooding landscape maps (RUG, 2014) after modelling extreme rainfall. With a flooding landscape map you can see at a glance where water isgoing and where problem areas arise in case of extreme rainfall. Any municipality or county can thus quickly determine which measures are to be taken to prevent for example disruption to traffic or flooding damage tobuildings.
Climate change is increasing the challenges for water management worldwide. Extreme weather conditions, such as droughts and heavy rainfall, are increasingly limiting the availability of water, especially for agriculture. Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) offer potential solutions. They help to collect and infiltrate rainwater and thus play an important role in climate adaptation.Green infrastructure, such as rain gardens (sunken plant beds) and wadis (sunken grass fields for temporary storage of rainwater), help to restore the urban water balance. They reduce rainwater runoff, stabilize groundwater levels and solve problems with soil moisture and temperature. Despite these advantages, there is still much ignorance in practice about the possibilities of NBS. To remedy this, freely accessible knowledge modules are being developed that can help governments and future employees to better understand the application of these solutions. This research, called GINA (Green Infrastructure in Urban Areas), aims to create more sustainable and climate-resilient cities by developing and sharing knowledge about NBS, and supports local governments and students in effectively deploying these green infrastructures.
INXCES will use and enhance innovative 3D terrain analysis and visualization technology coupled with state-of-the-art satellite remote sensing to develop cost-effective risk assessment tools for urban flooding, aquifer recharge, ground stability and subsidence. INXCES will develop quick scan tools that will help decision makers and other actors to improve the understanding of urban and peri-urban terrains and identify options for cost effective implementation of water management solutions that reduce the negative impacts of extreme events, maximize beneficial uses of rainwater and stormwater for small to intermediate events and provide long-term resilience in light of future climate changes. The INXCES approach optimizes the multiple benefits of urban ecosystems, thereby stimulating widespread implementation of nature-based solutions on the urban catchment scale.INXCES will develop new innovative technological methods for risk assessment and mitigation of extreme hydroclimatic events and optimization of urban water-dependent ecosystem services at the catchment level, for a spectrum of rainfall events. It is widely acknowledged that extreme events such as floods and droughts are an increasing challenge, particularly in urban areas. The frequency and intensity of floods and droughts pose challenges for economic and social development, negatively affecting the quality of life of urban populations. Prevention and mitigation of the consequences of hydroclimatic extreme events are dependent on the time scale. Floods are typically a consequence of intense rainfall events with short duration. In relation to prolonged droughts however, a much slower timescale needs to be considered, connected to groundwater level reductions, desiccation and negative consequences for growing conditions and potential ground – and building stability.INXCES will take a holistic spatial and temporal approach to the urban water balance at a catchment scale and perform technical-scientific research to assess, mitigate and build resilience in cities against extreme hydroclimatic events with nature-based solutions.INXCES will use and enhance innovative 3D terrain analysis and visualization technology coupled with state-of-the-art satellite remote sensing to develop cost-effective risk assessment tools for urban flooding, aquifer recharge, ground stability and subsidence. INXCES will develop quick scan tools that will help decision makers and other actors to improve the understanding of urban and peri-urban terrains and identify options for cost effective implementation of water management solutions that reduce the negative impacts of extreme events, maximize beneficial uses of rainwater and stormwater for small to intermediate events and provide long-term resilience in light of future climate changes. The INXCES approach optimizes the multiple benefits of urban ecosystems, thereby stimulating widespread implementation of nature-based solutions on the urban catchment scale.
