As society has to adapt to changing energy sources and consumption, it is driving away from fossil energy. One particular area of interest is electrical driving and the increasing demand for (public) charging facilities. For municipalities, it is essential to adapt to this changing demand and provide more public charging facilities.In order to accommodate on roll-out strategies in metropolitan areas a data driven simulation model, SEVA1, has been developed The SEVA base model used in this paper is an Agent-Based model that incorporate past sessions to predict future charging behaviour. Most EV users are habitual users and tend to use a small subset of the available charge facilities, by that obtaining a pattern is within the range possibilities. Yet, for non-habitual users, for example, car sharing users, obtaining a pattern is much harder as the cars use a significantly higher amount of charge points.The focus of this research is to explore different model implementations to assess the potential of predicting free-floating cars from the non-habitual user population. Most important result is that we now can simulate effects of deployement of car sharing users in the system, and with that the effect on convenience for habitual users. Results show that the interaction between habitual and non habitual EV users affect the unsuccessful connection attempts based increased based on the size of the car-sharing fleet up to approximately 10 percent. From these results implications for policy makers could be drawn.
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Several studies show that logistics facilities have spread spatially from relatively concentrated clusters in the 1970s to geographically more decentralized patterns away from urban areas. The literature indicates that logistics costs are one of the major influences on changes in distribution structures, or locations and usage of logistics facilities. Quantitative modelling studies that aim to describe or predict these phenomena in relation to logistics costs are lacking, however. This is relevant to design more effective policies concerning spatial development, transport and infrastructure investments as well as for understanding environmental consequences of freight transport. The objective of this paper is to gain an understanding of the responsiveness of spatial logistics patterns to changes in these costs, using a quantitative model that links production and consumption points via distribution centers. The model is estimated to reproduce observed use of logistics facilities as well as related transport flows, for the case of the Netherlands. We apply the model to estimate the impacts of a number of scenarios on the spatial spreading of regional distribution activity, interregional vehicle movements and commodity flows. We estimate new cost elasticities, of the demand for trade and transport together, as well as specifically for the demand for the distribution facility services. The relatively low cost elasticity of transport services and high cost elasticity for the distribution services provide new insights for policy makers, relevant to understand the possible impacts of their policies on land use and freight flows.
According to the critics of conventional sustainability models, particularly within the business context, it is questionable whether the objective of balancing the social, economic and environmental triad is feasible, and whether human equality and prosperity (as well as population growth) can be achieved with the present rate of natural degradation (Rees 2009). The current scale of human economic activity on Earth is already excessive; finding itself in a state of unsustainable ‘overshoot’ where consumption and dissipation of energy and material resources exceed the regenerative and assimilative capacity of supportive ecosystems (Rees 2012). Conceptualizing the current ‘politics of unsustainability’, reflected in mainstream sustainability debates, Blühdorn (2011) explores the paradox of wanting to ‘sustain the unsustainable, noting that the socio-cultural norms underpinning unsustainability support denial of the gravity of our planetary crises. This denial concerns anything from the imminence of mass extinctions to climate change. As Foster (2014) has phrased it: ‘There was a brief window of opportunity when the sustainability agenda might, at least in principle, have averted it’. That agenda, however, has failed. Not might fail, nor even is likely to fail – but has already failed. Yet, instead of acknowledging this failure and moving on from the realization of the catastrophe to the required radical measures, the optimists of sustainable development and ecological modernization continue to celebrate the purported ‘balance' between people, profit and planet. This is an Accepted Manuscript of a book chapter published by Routledge/CRC Press in "A Future Beyond Growth: Towards a Steady State Economy" on 4/14/16 ,available online: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315667515 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/helenkopnina/
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