No summary available
Objective: To describe the discrimination and calibration of clinical prediction models, identify characteristics that contribute to better predictions and investigate predictors that are associated with unplanned hospital readmissions.Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis.Data source: Medline, EMBASE, ICTPR (for study protocols) and Web of Science (for conference proceedings) were searched up to 25 August 2020.Eligibility criteria for selecting studies: Studies were eligible if they reported on (1) hospitalised adult patients with acute heart disease; (2) a clinical presentation of prediction models with c-statistic; (3) unplanned hospital readmission within 6 months. Primary and secondary outcome measures: Model discrimination for unplanned hospital readmission within 6 months measured using concordance (c) statistics and model calibration. Meta-regression and subgroup analyses were performed to investigate predefined sources of heterogeneity. Outcome measures from models reported in multiple independent cohorts and similarly defined risk predictors were pooled.Results: Sixty studies describing 81 models were included: 43 models were newly developed, and 38 were externally validated. Included populations were mainly patients with heart failure (HF) (n=29). The average age ranged between 56.5 and 84 years. The incidence of readmission ranged from 3% to 43%. Risk of bias (RoB) was high in almost all studies. The c-statistic was <0.7 in 72 models, between 0.7 and 0.8 in 16 models and >0.8 in 5 models. The study population, data source and number of predictors were significant moderators for the discrimination. Calibration was reported for 27 models. Only the GRACE (Global Registration of Acute Coronary Events) score had adequate discrimination in independent cohorts (0.78, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.86). Eighteen predictors were pooled. Conclusion: Some promising models require updating and validation before use in clinical practice. The lack of independent validation studies, high RoB and low consistency in measured predictors limit their applicability.PROSPERO registration number: CRD42020159839.
MULTIFILE
Background To improve the quality of exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (CR) in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) the CR guideline from the Dutch Royal Society for Physiotherapists (KNGF) has been updated. This guideline can be considered an addition to the 2011 Dutch Multidisciplinary CR guideline, as it includes several novel topics. Methods A systematic literature search was performed to formulate conclusions on the efficacy of exercise-based interventions during all CR phases in patients with CHD. Evidence was graded (1–4) according the Dutch evidence-based guideline development (EBRO) criteria. In case of insufficient scientific evidence, recommendations were based on expert opinion. This guideline comprised a structured approach including assessment, treatment and evaluation. Results Recommendations for exercise-based CR were formulated covering the following topics: preoperative physiotherapy, mobilisation during the clinical phase, aerobic exercise, strength training, and relaxation therapy during the outpatient rehabilitation phase, and adoption and monitoring of a physically active lifestyle after outpatient rehabilitation. Conclusions There is strong evidence for the effectiveness of exercise-based CR during all phases of CR. The implementation of this guideline in clinical practice needs further evaluation as well as the maintenance of an active lifestyle after supervised rehabilitation. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tinusjongert/