ABSTRACT It is unknown whether heterogeneity in effects of self-management interventions in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can be explained by differences in programme characteristics. This study aimed to identify which characteristics of COPD self-management interventions are most effective. Systematic search in electronic databases identified randomised trials on self-management interventions conducted between 1985 and 2013. Individual patient data were requested for meta-analysis by generalised mixed effects models. 14 randomised trials were included (67% of eligible), representing 3282 patients (75% of eligible). Univariable analyses showed favourable effects on some outcomes for more planned contacts and longer duration of interventions, interventions with peer contact, without log keeping, without problem solving, and without support allocation. After adjusting for other programme characteristics in multivariable analyses, only the effects of duration on all-cause hospitalisation remained. Each month increase in intervention duration reduced risk of all-cause hospitalisation (time to event hazard ratios 0.98, 95% CI 0.97–0.99; risk ratio (RR) after 6 months follow-up 0.96, 95% CI 0.92–0.99; RR after 12 months follow-up 0.98, 95% CI 0.96–1.00). Our results showed that longer duration of self-management interventions conferred a reduction in allcause hospitalisations in COPD patients. Other characteristics are not consistently associated with differential effects of self-management interventions across clinically relevant outcomes.
BACKGROUND: Prediction models and prognostic scores have been increasingly popular in both clinical practice and clinical research settings, for example to aid in risk-based decision making or control for confounding. In many medical fields, a large number of prognostic scores are available, but practitioners may find it difficult to choose between them due to lack of external validation as well as lack of comparisons between them.METHODS: Borrowing methodology from network meta-analysis, we describe an approach to Multiple Score Comparison meta-analysis (MSC) which permits concurrent external validation and comparisons of prognostic scores using individual patient data (IPD) arising from a large-scale international collaboration. We describe the challenges in adapting network meta-analysis to the MSC setting, for instance the need to explicitly include correlations between the scores on a cohort level, and how to deal with many multi-score studies. We propose first using IPD to make cohort-level aggregate discrimination or calibration scores, comparing all to a common comparator. Then, standard network meta-analysis techniques can be applied, taking care to consider correlation structures in cohorts with multiple scores. Transitivity, consistency and heterogeneity are also examined.RESULTS: We provide a clinical application, comparing prognostic scores for 3-year mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using data from a large-scale collaborative initiative. We focus on the discriminative properties of the prognostic scores. Our results show clear differences in performance, with ADO and eBODE showing higher discrimination with respect to mortality than other considered scores. The assumptions of transitivity and local and global consistency were not violated. Heterogeneity was small.CONCLUSIONS: We applied a network meta-analytic methodology to externally validate and concurrently compare the prognostic properties of clinical scores. Our large-scale external validation indicates that the scores with the best discriminative properties to predict 3 year mortality in patients with COPD are ADO and eBODE.
Background: Many international clinical guidelines recommend therapeutic exercise as a core treatment for knee and hip osteoarthritis. We aimed to identify individual patient-level moderators of the effect of therapeutic exercise for reducing pain and improving physical function in people with knee osteoarthritis, hip osteoarthritis, or both. Methods: We did a systematic review and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials comparing therapeutic exercise with non-exercise controls in people with knee osteoathritis, hip osteoarthritis, or both. We searched ten databases from March 1, 2012, to Feb 25, 2019, for randomised controlled trials comparing the effects of exercise with non-exercise or other exercise controls on pain and physical function outcomes among people with knee osteoarthritis, hip osteoarthritis, or both. IPD were requested from leads of all eligible randomised controlled trials. 12 potential moderators of interest were explored to ascertain whether they were associated with short-term (12 weeks), medium-term (6 months), and long-term (12 months) effects of exercise on self-reported pain and physical function, in comparison with non-exercise controls. Overall intervention effects were also summarised. This study is prospectively registered on PROSPERO (CRD42017054049). Findings: Of 91 eligible randomised controlled trials that compared exercise with non-exercise controls, IPD from 31 randomised controlled trials (n=4241 participants) were included in the meta-analysis. Randomised controlled trials included participants with knee osteoarthritis (18 [58%] of 31 trials), hip osteoarthritis (six [19%]), or both (seven [23%]) and tested heterogeneous exercise interventions versus heterogeneous non-exercise controls, with variable risk of bias. Summary meta-analysis results showed that, on average, compared with non-exercise controls, therapeutic exercise reduced pain on a standardised 0–100 scale (with 100 corresponding to worst pain), with a difference of –6·36 points (95% CI –8·45 to –4·27, borrowing of strength [BoS] 10·3%, between-study variance [τ2] 21·6) in the short term, –3·77 points (–5·97 to –1·57, BoS 30·0%, τ2 14·4) in the medium term, and –3·43 points (–5·18 to –1·69, BoS 31·7%, τ2 4·5) in the long term. Therapeutic exercise also improved physical function on a standardised 0–100 scale (with 100 corresponding to worst physical function), with a difference of –4·46 points in the short term (95% CI –5·95 to –2·98, BoS 10·5%, τ2 10·1), –2·71 points in the medium term (–4·63 to –0·78, BoS 33·6%, τ2 11·9), and –3·39 points in the long term (–4·97 to –1·81, BoS 34·1%, τ2 6·4). Baseline pain and physical function moderated the effect of exercise on pain and physical function outcomes. Those with higher self-reported pain and physical function scores at baseline (ie, poorer physical function) generally benefited more than those with lower self-reported pain and physical function scores at baseline, with the evidence most certain in the short term (12 weeks). Interpretation: There was evidence of a small, positive overall effect of therapeutic exercise on pain and physical function compared with non-exercise controls. However, this effect is of questionable clinical importance, particularly in the medium and long term. As individuals with higher pain severity and poorer physical function at baseline benefited more than those with lower pain severity and better physical function at baseline, targeting individuals with higher levels of osteoarthritis-related pain and disability for therapeutic exercise might be of merit. Funding: Chartered Society of Physiotherapy Charitable Trust and the National Institute for Health and Care Research.
