In this thesis several studies are presented that have targeted decision making about case management plans in probation. In a case management plan probation officers describe the goals and interventions that should help offenders stop reoffending, and the specific measures necessary to reduce acute risks of recidivism and harm. Such a plan is embedded in a judicial framework, a sanction or advice about the sanction in which these interventions and measures should be executed. The topic of this thesis is the use of structured decision support, and the question is if this can improve decision making about case management plans in probation and subsequently improve the effectiveness of offender supervision. In this chapter we first sketch why structured decision making was introduced in the Dutch probation services. Next we describe the instrument for risk and needs assessment as well as the procedure to develop case management plans that are used by the Dutch probation services and that are investigated in this thesis. Then we describe the setting of the studies and the research questions, and we conclude with an overview of this thesis.
The body of evidence that the working alliance is associated with positive outcomes for mandated clients is growing. The aim of this research was to investigate the influence of several characteristics of probation officers (POs) and offenders on the course of the working alliance during probation supervision. This study examined the patterns on the four alliance subscales: Trust, Bond, Goals-Restrictions, and Reactance of the Working Alliance With Mandated Clients Inventory (WAMCI) in 201 offenders and their 137 POs. Three patterns on each alliance subscale were found: deteriorating, improving, and stable. Multinomial logistic analysis revealed that change of POs and the preference of the PO to maintain rules were associated with a deteriorating Trust pattern. From the perspective of the offenders, being motivated to take part in supervision was associated with a stable pattern on every alliance subscale, but having problems with substance use increased the likelihood of a deteriorating pattern on every alliance subscale.
Crime script analysis as a methodology to analyse criminal processes is underdeveloped. This is apparent from the various approaches in which scholars apply crime scripting and present their cybercrime scripts. The plethora of scripting methods raise significant concerns about the reliability and validity of these scripting studies. In this methodological paper, we demonstrate how object-oriented modelling (OOM) could address some of the currently identified methodological issues, thereby refining crime script analysis. More specifically, we suggest to visualise crime scripts using static and dynamic modelling with the Unified Modelling Language (UML) to harmonise cybercrime scripts without compromising their depth. Static models visualise objects in a system or process, their attributes and their relationships. Dynamic models visualise actions and interactions during a process. Creating these models in addition to the typical textual narrative could aid analysts to more systematically consider, organise and relate key aspects of crime scripts. In turn, this approach might, amongst others, facilitate alternative ways of identifying intervention measures, theorising about offender decision-making, and an improved shared understanding of the crime phenomenon analysed. We illustrate the application of these models with a phishing script.
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