Accurate modeling of end-users’ decision-making behavior is crucial for validating demand response (DR) policies. However, existing models usually represent the decision-making behavior as an optimization problem, neglecting the impact of human psychology on decisions. In this paper, we propose a Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) agent model to model end-users’ decision-making under DR. This model has the ability to perceive environmental information, generate different power scheduling plans, and make decisions that align with its own interests. The key modeling capabilities of the proposed model have been validated in a household end-user with flexible loads
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Background: Modern modeling techniques may potentially provide more accurate predictions of dichotomous outcomes than classical techniques. Objective: In this study, we aimed to examine the predictive performance of eight modeling techniques to predict mortality by frailty. Methods: We performed a longitudinal study with a 7-year follow-up. The sample consisted of 479 Dutch community-dwelling people, aged 75 years and older. Frailty was assessed with the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI), a self-report questionnaire. This questionnaire consists of eight physical, four psychological, and three social frailty components. The municipality of Roosendaal, a city in the Netherlands, provided the mortality dates. We compared modeling techniques, such as support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), random forest, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, as well as classical techniques, such as logistic regression, two Bayesian networks, and recursive partitioning (RP). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) indicated the performance of the models. The models were validated using bootstrapping. Results: We found that the NN model had the best validated performance (AUROC=0.812), followed by the SVM model (AUROC=0.705). The other models had validated AUROC values below 0.700. The RP model had the lowest validated AUROC (0.605). The NN model had the highest optimism (0.156). The predictor variable “difficulty in walking” was important for all models. Conclusions: Because of the high optimism of the NN model, we prefer the SVM model for predicting mortality among community-dwelling older people using the TFI, with the addition of “gender” and “age” variables. External validation is a necessary step before applying the prediction models in a new setting.
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Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a widely used method for evaluating demand response (DR) strategies. To comprehensively assess the impact of DR strategies on a district cooling system, the integration of building managers’ DR behavior is essential. However, most ABM studies focus on technical optimization while overlooking the behavioral factors that may exist in building managers’ decision-making processes. To address this gap, this paper introduces an agent-based model using the belief-desire-intention (BDI) framework to simulate building managers’ air-conditioning setpoint adjustment behavior under DR, integrating the reasoning capabilities and irrational behavior factors.
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This paper presents an innovative approach that combines optimization and simulation techniques for solving scheduling problems under uncertainty. We introduce an Opt–Sim closed-loop feedback framework (Opt–Sim) based on a sliding-window method, where a simulation model is used for evaluating the optimized solution with inherent uncertainties for scheduling activities. The specific problem tackled in this paper, refers to the airport capacity management under uncertainty, and the Opt–Sim framework is applied to a real case study (Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport, France). Different implementations of the Opt–Sim framework were tested based on: parameters for driving the Opt–Sim algorithmic framework and parameters for riving the optimization search algorithm. Results show that, by applying the Opt–Sim framework, potential aircraft conflicts could be reduced up to 57% over the non-optimized scenario. The proposed optimization framework is general enough so that different optimization resolution methods and simulation paradigms can be implemented for solving scheduling problems in several other fields.
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Abstract Background: COVID-19 was first identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China. The virus quickly spread and was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020. After infection, symptoms such as fever, a (dry) cough, nasal congestion, and fatigue can develop. In some cases, the virus causes severe complications such as pneumonia and dyspnea and could result in death. The virus also spread rapidly in the Netherlands, a small and densely populated country with an aging population. Health care in the Netherlands is of a high standard, but there were nevertheless problems with hospital capacity, such as the number of available beds and staff. There were also regions and municipalities that were hit harder than others. In the Netherlands, there are important data sources available for daily COVID-19 numbers and information about municipalities. Objective: We aimed to predict the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands, using a data set with the properties of 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and advanced modeling techniques. Methods: We collected relevant static data per municipality from data sources that were available in the Dutch public domain and merged these data with the dynamic daily number of infections from January 1, 2020, to May 9, 2021, resulting in a data set with 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and variables grouped into 20 topics. The modeling techniques random forest and multiple fractional polynomials were used to construct a prediction model for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands. Results: The final prediction model had an R2 of 0.63. Important properties for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality in the Netherlands were exposure to particulate matter with diameters <10 μm (PM10) in the air, the percentage of Labour party voters, and the number of children in a household. Conclusions: Data about municipality properties in relation to the cumulative number of confirmed infections in a municipality in the Netherlands can give insight into the most important properties of a municipality for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality. This insight can provide policy makers with tools to cope with COVID-19 and may also be of value in the event of a future pandemic, so that municipalities are better prepared.
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Airports and surrounding airspaces are limited in terms of capacity and represent the major bottlenecks of the air traffic management system. This paper addresses the problems of terminal airspace management and airport congestion management at the macroscopic level through the integrated control of arrivals and departures. Conflict detection and resolution methods are applied to a predefined terminal route structure. Different airside components are modeled using network abstraction. Speed, arrival and departure times, and runway assignment are managed by using an optimization method. An adapted simulated annealing heuristic combined with a time decomposition approach is proposed to solve the corresponding problem. Computational experiments performed on case studies of Paris Charles De-Gaulle airport show some potential improvements: First, when the airport capacity is decreased, until a certain threshold, the overload can be mitigated properly by adjusting the aircraft entry time in the Terminal Maneuvering Area and the pushback time. Second, landing and take-off runway assignments in peak hours with imbalanced runway throughputs can significantly reduce flight delays. A decrease of 37% arrival delays and 36% departure delays was reached compared to baseline case.
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Aircraft require significant quantities of fuel in order to generate the power required to sustain a flight. Burning this fuel causes the release of polluting particles to the atmosphere and constitutes a direct cost attributed to fuel consumption. The optimization of various aircraft operations in different flight phases such as cruise and descent, as well as terminal area movements, have been identified as a way to reduce fuel requirements, thus reducing pollution. The goal of this chapter is to briefly explain and apply different metaheuristic optimization algorithms to improve the cruise flight phase cost in terms of fuel burn. Another goal is to present an overview of the most popular commercial aircraft models. The algorithms implemented for different optimization strategies are genetic algorithms, the artificial bee colony, and the ant colony algorithm. The fuel burn aircraft model used here is in the form of a Performance Database. A methodology to create this model using a Level D aircraft research flight simulator is briefly explained. Weather plays an important role in flight optimization, and so this work explains a method for incorporating open source weather. The results obtained for the optimization algorithms show that every optimization algorithm was able to reduce the flight consumption, thereby reducing the pollution emissions and contributing to airlines’ profit margins.
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This study presents a methodology designed to optimize various parameters of each access point within a Multiple-Input Single-Output (MISO) Visible Light Communication (VLC) system. The primary objective is to enhance both power and spectral efficiencies. A MISO-VLC model is presented based on experimental evaluations and a problem formulation considering intermodulation distortions based on Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing modulation. A Hybrid Multi-Objective Optimization (HMO) approach is proposed, combining the Non-Sorting Genetic Algorithm III (NSGA-III) and the Multi-objective Grey Wolf Optimization (MOGWO). The proposed HMO's success was validated by a 66 % reduction in transmitted power, maintaining the Error Vector Magnitude (EVM) performance metrics even at lower power transmission levels and minimizing the guard band to its lower bound.
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Background: Advanced statistical modeling techniques may help predict health outcomes. However, it is not the case that these modeling techniques always outperform traditional techniques such as regression techniques. In this study, external validation was carried out for five modeling strategies for the prediction of the disability of community-dwelling older people in the Netherlands. Methods: We analyzed data from five studies consisting of community-dwelling older people in the Netherlands. For the prediction of the total disability score as measured with the Groningen Activity Restriction Scale (GARS), we used fourteen predictors as measured with the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI). Both the TFI and the GARS are self-report questionnaires. For the modeling, five statistical modeling techniques were evaluated: general linear model (GLM), support vector machine (SVM), neural net (NN), recursive partitioning (RP), and random forest (RF). Each model was developed on one of the five data sets and then applied to each of the four remaining data sets. We assessed the performance of the models with calibration characteristics, the correlation coefficient, and the root of the mean squared error. Results: The models GLM, SVM, RP, and RF showed satisfactory performance characteristics when validated on the validation data sets. All models showed poor performance characteristics for the deviating data set both for development and validation due to the deviating baseline characteristics compared to those of the other data sets. Conclusion: The performance of four models (GLM, SVM, RP, RF) on the development data sets was satisfactory. This was also the case for the validation data sets, except when these models were developed on the deviating data set. The NN models showed a much worse performance on the validation data sets than on the development data sets.
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For long flights, the cruise is the longest phase and where the largest amount of fuel is consumed. An in-cruise optimization method has been implemented to calculate the optimal trajectory that reduces the flight cost. A three-dimensional grid has been created, coupling lateral navigation and vertical navigation profiles. With a dynamic analysis of the wind, the aircraft can perform a horizontal deviation or change altitudes via step climbs to reduce fuel consumption. As the number of waypoints and possible step climbs is increased, the number of flight trajectories increases exponentially; thus, a genetic algorithm has been implemented to reduce the total number of calculated trajectories compared to an exhaustive search. The aircraft’s model has been obtained from a performance database, which is currently used in the commercial flight management system studied in this paper. A 5% average flight cost reduction has been obtained.
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