The general aim of this research project has been to examine this phenomenon of tourism flow switching and consider the factors driving the geopolitical instability that can compromise destination security. On a more practical level the research has also examined what the reactions of Dutch tourists are to security threats affecting their tourism decisions and looked at the development of preventive measures against attacks by destinations and travel organisations. Finally, the research on the regional geopolitics of the MENA and European areas have together with the attitudes of Dutch tourists towards destination security been used as inputs into a scenario planning process involving the steering group of tour operators who originally commissioned this research, as participants. This process has focussed on macro environmental analysis, identification of key uncertainties, and the development of resilient strategies for the future.
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How to reduce carbon emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation? For years the carbon-intensive travel industry has been struggling with this question. Research has addressed the relation between climate change and tourism (e.g., Gössling et al 2015; Becken, 2013; Gössling, 2010; Gössling et al 2010; Bows et al, 2009). Their work produced models and measurement methods, and recommended mitigation policies and actions (Scott, 2011; Dwyer et al, 2010; Gössling et al 2010; McKercher, 2010). Major industry players have since adopted carbon reduction measures in their CSR policies (Thomas Cook group, 2015; TUI Group, 2015). However, the bulk of the travel industry consists of SMEs that typically have limited resources available for CSR. CARMACAL may offer a solution for the sector at large. CARMACAL is a user-friendly application that enables tour operators to accurately measure the complete carbon footprint of their tour packages and integrate carbon management in their business (CSTT, 2016a). The industry acknowledged its relevance: in April 2016 CARMACAL won the WTTC Tourism for Tomorrow Innovation Award
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By use of a literature review and an environmental scan four plausible future scenarios will be created, based on the research question: How could the future of backpack tourism look like in 2030, and how could tourism businesses anticipate on the changing demand. The scenarios, which allow one to ‘think out of the box’, will eventually be translated into recommendations towards the tourism sector and therefore can create a future proof company strategy.
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Possibly, the aviation sector’s decarbonization challenge (see Dutch knowledge key in international climate study for tourism | CELTH) has profound implications for the ability of aviation-de-pendent outbound tour operators to attract capital and with that their ability to maintain or trans-form their current business portfolio (understood here as the current product offers and approximate carbon footprints, business models, and ownership structures present in this economic do-main). Knowledge about these (possible) investment risks and their business and policy implications is lacking. This project therefore addresses this knowledge gap by means of the following research questions.1. What is the current business portfolio of Dutch outbound tour operators?a. To what extend do Dutch outbound tour operators depend on aviation in terms of product offer and turnover?b. What is the relative carbon footprint share of aviation-based products compared to the total outbound product offer and turnover of Dutch outbound tour operators?2. What are investment risks of this business portfolio as indicated by investors?a. How do investors evaluate investment risks in relation to climate change mitigation and de-carbonisation?b. What are investment risks of the business portfolio of Dutch outbound tour operators?c. What are the reflections on and implications of these investment risks from the perspective of policymakers and tour operators?
