Research on follow-up outcomes of systemic interventions for family members with an intellectual disability is scarce. In this study, short-term and long-term follow-up outcomes of multisystemic therapy for adolescents with antisocial or delinquent behaviour and an intellectual disability (MST-ID) are reported. In addition, the role of parental intellectual disability was examined. Outcomes of 55 families who had received MST-ID were assessed at the end of treatment and at 6-month, 12-month and 18-month follow-up. Parental intellectual disability was used as a predictor of treatment outcomes. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. Rule-breaking behaviour of adolescents declined during treatment and stabilized until 18 months post-treatment. The presence or absence of parental intellectual disability did not predict treatment outcomes. This study was the first to report long-term outcomes of MST-ID. The intervention achieved similar results in families with and without parents with an intellectual disability.
DOCUMENT
Background: Modern modeling techniques may potentially provide more accurate predictions of dichotomous outcomes than classical techniques. Objective: In this study, we aimed to examine the predictive performance of eight modeling techniques to predict mortality by frailty. Methods: We performed a longitudinal study with a 7-year follow-up. The sample consisted of 479 Dutch community-dwelling people, aged 75 years and older. Frailty was assessed with the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI), a self-report questionnaire. This questionnaire consists of eight physical, four psychological, and three social frailty components. The municipality of Roosendaal, a city in the Netherlands, provided the mortality dates. We compared modeling techniques, such as support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), random forest, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, as well as classical techniques, such as logistic regression, two Bayesian networks, and recursive partitioning (RP). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) indicated the performance of the models. The models were validated using bootstrapping. Results: We found that the NN model had the best validated performance (AUROC=0.812), followed by the SVM model (AUROC=0.705). The other models had validated AUROC values below 0.700. The RP model had the lowest validated AUROC (0.605). The NN model had the highest optimism (0.156). The predictor variable “difficulty in walking” was important for all models. Conclusions: Because of the high optimism of the NN model, we prefer the SVM model for predicting mortality among community-dwelling older people using the TFI, with the addition of “gender” and “age” variables. External validation is a necessary step before applying the prediction models in a new setting.
DOCUMENT
Abstract BackgroundFrailty is a syndrome that is defined as an accumulation of deficits in physical, psychological, and social domains. On a global scale, there is an urgent need to create frailty-ready healthcare systems due to the healthcare burden that frailty confers on systems and the increased risk of falls, healthcare utilization, disability, and premature mortality. Several studies have been conducted to develop prediction models for predicting frailty. Most studies used logistic regression as a technique to develop a prediction model. One area that has experienced significant growth is the application of Bayesian techniques, partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. ObjectiveWe compared ten different Bayesian networks as proposed by ten experts in the field of frail elderly people to predict frailty with a choice from ten dichotomized determinants for frailty. MethodsWe used the opinion of ten experts who could indicate, using an empty Bayesian network graph, the important predictors for frailty and the interactions between the different predictors. The candidate predictors were age, sex, marital status, ethnicity, education, income, lifestyle, multimorbidity, life events, and home living environment. The ten Bayesian network models were evaluated in terms of their ability to predict frailty. For the evaluation, we used the data of 479 participants that filled in the Tilburg Frailty indicator (TFI) questionnaire for assessing frailty among community-dwelling older people. The data set contained the aforementioned variables and the outcome ”frail”. The model fit of each model was measured using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the predictive performance of the models was measured using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic (ROC). The AUCs of the models were validated using bootstrapping with 100 repetitions. The relative importance of the predictors in the models was calculated using the permutation feature importance algorithm (PFI). ResultsThe ten Bayesian networks of the ten experts differed considerably regarding the predictors and the connections between the predictors and the outcome. However, all ten networks had corrected AUCs 0.700. Evaluating the importance of the predictors in each model, ”diseases or chronic disorders” was the most important predictor in all models (10 times). The predictors ”lifestyle” and ”monthly income” were also often present in the models (both 6 times). One or more diseases or chronic disorders, an unhealthy lifestyle, and a monthly income below 1,800 euro increased the likelihood of frailty. ConclusionsAlthough the ten experts all made different graphs, the predictive performance was always satisfying (AUCs 0.700). While it is true that the predictor importance varied all the time, the top three of the predictor importance consisted of “diseases or chronic disorders”, “lifestyle” and “monthly income”. All in all, asking for the opinion of experts in the field of frail elderly to predict frailty with Bayesian networks may be more rewarding than a data-driven forecast with Bayesian networks because they have expert knowledge regarding interactions between the different predictors.
LINK
Background & aims: Accurate diagnosis of sarcopenia requires evaluation of muscle quality, which refers to the amount of fat infiltration in muscle tissue. In this study, we aim to investigate whether we can independently predict mortality risk in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) patients, using automatic deep learning algorithms to assess muscle quality on procedural computed tomography (CT) scans. Methods: This study included 1199 patients with severe aortic stenosis who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) between January 2010 and January 2020. A procedural CT scan was performed as part of the preprocedural-TAVI evaluation, and the scans were analyzed using deep-learning-based software to automatically determine skeletal muscle density (SMD) and intermuscular adipose tissue (IMAT). The association of SMD and IMAT with all-cause mortality was analyzed using a Cox regression model, adjusted for other known mortality predictors, including muscle mass. Results: The mean age of the participants was 80 ± 7 years, 53% were female. The median observation time was 1084 days, and the overall mortality rate was 39%. We found that the lowest tertile of muscle quality, as determined by SMD, was associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR 1.40 [95%CI: 1.15–1.70], p < 0.01). Similarly, low muscle quality as defined by high IMAT in the lowest tertile was also associated with increased mortality risk (HR 1.24 [95%CI: 1.01–1.52], p = 0.04). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that deep learning-assessed low muscle quality, as indicated by fat infiltration in muscle tissue, is a practical, useful and independent predictor of mortality after TAVI.
DOCUMENT
The responsivity principle is a vital element in the risk-need-responsivity model. The working alliance is a good illustration of the intention of this responsivity principle. In this study, we examine the influence of the working alliance (WAMCI) between 199 offenders and probation officers on recidivism. Data for this longitudinal study originate from adult probation services in the Netherlands. The association between the working alliance factors and recidivism was analyzed using a Cox regression. Offenders who reported more Trust in the relationship with their Probation Officer after 9 months community supervision showed less recidivism in the subsequent 4-year follow-up period. This association remained significant when controlled for criminal history, age, gender, ethnicity, family status, employment and addiction problems. Offenders who reported more reactance showed significantly more recidivism in the follow-up period, but this association was accounted for criminal history variables. These results can be regarded as an extension of the responsivity principle; a trusting relationship may be needed to create a space in which the client becomes engaged in a changing process
LINK
The primary purpose of this study was to examine whether grip strength is related to total muscle strength in children, adolescents, and young adults. The second purpose was to provide reference charts for grip strength, which could be used in the clinical and research setting. This cross-sectional study was performed at primary and secondary schools and the University of Applied Sciences. Three hundred and eighty-four healthy Dutch children, adolescents, and young adults at the age of 8 to 20 years participated. Isometric muscle strength was measured with a handheld dynamometer of four muscle groups (shoulder abductors, grip strength, hip flexors, and ankle dorsiflexors). Total muscle strength was a summing up of shoulder abductors, hip flexors, and ankle dorsiflexors. All physical therapists participated in a reliability study. The study was started when intratester and intertester reliability was high (Pearson correlation coefficient >0.8). Grip strength was strongly correlated with total muscle strength, with correlation coefficients between 0.736 and 0.890 (p < 0.01). However, the correlation was weaker when controlled for weight (0.485-0.564, p < 0.01). Grip strength is related to total muscle strength. This indicates, in the clinical setting, that grip strength can be used as a tool to have a rapid indication of someone's general muscle strength. The developed reference charts are suitable for evaluating muscle strength in children, adolescents, and young adults in clinical and research settings.
DOCUMENT
The effects of stress may be alleviated when its impact or a decreased stress-resilience are detected early. This study explores whether wearable-measured sleep and resting HRV in police officers can be predicted by stress-related Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) measures in preceding days and predict stress-related EMA outcomes in subsequent days. Eight police officers used an Oura ring to collect daily Total Sleep Time (TST) and resting Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and an EMA app for measuring demands, stress, mental exhaustion, and vigor during 15-55 weeks. Vector Autoregression (VAR) models were created and complemented by Granger causation tests and Impulse Response Function visualizations. Demands negatively predicted TST and HRV in one participant. TST negatively predicted demands, stress, and mental exhaustion in two, three, and five participants, respectively, and positively predicted vigor in five participants. HRV negatively predicted demands in two participants, and stress and mental exhaustion in one participant. Changes in HRV lasted longer than those in TST. Bidirectional associations of TST and resting HRV with stress-related outcomes were observed at a weak-to-moderate strength, but not consistently across participants. TST and resting HRV are more consistent predictors of stress-resilience in upcoming days than indicators of stress-related measures in prior days.
DOCUMENT
The concepts punitiveness and rehabilitation orientation in the general public are generally measured by rather broad attitude items that are not directly related to probation. In this study, two separate attitude scales were used that were tailor-made for the probation context and therefore have a high ecological validity. These ‘ecological scales’ were each analysed with the same predictor set. Cognitive emotive variables showed incremental prediction above demographics. Higher knowledge of probation and more satisfaction with society are related to a higher preference for rehabilitation. Less knowledge of probation and a higher feeling of victimization are related to a more punitive attitude.
DOCUMENT
Background: Parents influence their children’s nutrition behavior. The relationship between parental influences and children’s nutrition behavior is often studied with a focus on the dyadic interaction between the parent and the child. However, parents and children are part of a broader system: the family. We investigated the relationship between the family nutrition climate (FNC), a family-level concept, and children’s nutrition behavior. Methods: Parents of primary school-aged children (N = 229) filled in the validated family nutrition climate (FNC) scale. This scale measures the families’ view on the consumption of healthy nutrition, consisting of four di erent concepts: value, communication, cohesion, and consensus. Parents also reported their children’s nutrition behavior (i.e., fruit, vegetable, water, candy, savory snack, and soda consumption). Multivariate linear regression analyses, correcting for potential confounders, were used to assess the relationship between the FNC scale (FNC-Total; model 1) and the di erent FNC subscales (model 2) and the child’s nutrition behavior. Results: FNC-Total was positively related to fruit and vegetable intake and negatively related to soda consumption. FNC-value was a significant predictor of vegetable (positive) and candy intake (negative), and FNC-communication was a significant predictor of soda consumption (negative). FNC-communication, FNC-cohesion, and FNC-consensus were significant predictors (positive, positive, and negative, respectively) of water consumption. Conclusions: The FNC is related to children’s nutrition behavior and especially to the consumption of healthy nutrition. These results imply the importance of taking the family-level influence into account when studying the influence of parents on children’s nutrition behavior. Trial registration: Dutch Trial Register NTR6716 (registration date 27 June 2017, retrospectively registered), METC163027, NL58554.068.16, Fonds NutsOhra project number 101.253.
DOCUMENT
The level of work engagement is an important aspect of organizational culture. In this empirical study the relation between engagement and experienced professionalism of probation officers is investigated. Starting from ideal-typical theories on professionalism, a psychometric instrument for measuring experienced professionalism was developed and administered to a sample of Dutch probation officers. Two reliable scales could be constructed that account for 64% of the variance in work engagement. Of these, professional ethos (humanistic values) is the most important predictor of work engagement in probation. Professional facilitation (support from the surroundings), however, also contributes to engagement.
DOCUMENT
