Background: Increasing life expectancy in high-income countries has been linked to a rise in fall mortality. In the Netherlands, mortality rates from falls have increased gradually from the 1950s, with some indication of stabilisation in the 1990s. For population health and clinical practice, it is important to foresee the future fall mortality trajectories. Methods: A graphical approach was used to explore trends in mortality by age, calendar period and cohorts born in the periods of 1915–1945. Population data and the numbers of people with accidental fall fatality as underlying cause of death from 1990 to 2021 were derived from Statistics Netherlands. Age-standardised mortality rates of unintentional falls per 100 000 population were calculated by year and sex. A log-linear model was used to examine the separate effects of age, period and cohort on the trend in mortality and to produce estimates of future numbers of fall deaths until 2045. Results: While the total population increased by 17% between 1990 and 2021, absolute numbers of fall-related deaths rose by 230% (from 1584 to 5234), which was 251% (an increase of 576 deaths in 1990 to 2021 deaths in 2020) for men and 219% (from 1008 to 3213) for women. Age-standardised figures were higher for women than men and increased more over time. In 2020, 79% of those with death due to falls were over the age of 80, and 35% were 90 years or older. From 2020 to 2045, the observed and projected numbers of fall deaths were 2021 and 7073 for men (250% increase) and 3213 and 12 575 for women (291% increase). Conclusion: Mortality due to falls has increased in the past decades and will continue to rise sharply, mainly caused by growing numbers of older adults, especially those in their 80s and 90s. Contributing risk factors are well known, implementation of preventive measures is a much needed next step. An effective approach to managing elderly people after falls is warranted to reduce crowding in the emergency care and reduce unnecessary long hospital stays.
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Both climate change and human activity are the important drivers that can change hydrological cycle routs and affect the features of hydrological drought in river basins. The current study selects the Zayandeh Rud river Basin as a case study region in which to evaluate the influences of climate alteration and human activity on meteorological and hydrological drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) on different time scales. The generated local climatic data of future years (2006–2040), (2041–2075) and (2076–2100) under the severest scenario (RCP 8.5) from the CMIP5 climate model are selected and used for the hydrology model and water allocation model of WEAP to construct hydrological drought which also consider human activities. The results indicate that significant meteorological drought is expected to occur in the winter and spring months of January to June. However, the driest month for hydrological drought is in the summer and autumn (July to December) (e.g. no changes in seasonality of droughts compared to historic period). It is concluded that, in the results of this work, the human influences on projected hydrological drought have been outlined; they had been missed in many projections for future hydrological drought. However, this study confirms the previous study (Bierkens et al. 2012) which mentioned that human influences can account for future hydrological drought in areas of Asia, the Middle East and the Mediterranean. The results attained in this study are beneficial for examining how hydrological drought characterizations respond to climate alteration and human activity on several time scales, thereby providing scientific information for drought predicting and water resources management over various time scales under non-stationary circumstances.
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ObjectivesIn many Western societies, the state pension age is being raised to stimulate prolonged working. In the Netherlands, the raise of the state pension age is linked to the remaining life expectancy at age 65 with a factor of 2/3rd, and is expected to be 68 years in 2040. It is not yet well understood whether health of the 60+ permits this increase. In this study, health of Dutch adults aged 60 to 68 is forecasted up to 2040.MethodsData are from the Dutch Health Interview Survey (HIS) 1990-2017 (N≈280.000) and the Dutch Public Health Monitor (PHM) 2016 (N≈460.000). Health is operationalized using binomial scores of 1) self-rated health and 2) limitations in hearing, seeing or mobility. Categories are: good health (healthy on both items), moderate health (healthy on one item) and poor health (unhealthy on both items). First, based on the HIS, health status in 5-year age categories was modelled up to 2040 using logistic regression analysis in R. Second, the growth factor from 2016 to 2040 was applied to the health level from the PHM 2016.ResultsIn 2016, 63% of men aged 60-65 had good health, 25% had moderate health and 12% had poor health. Among women, this distribution was 64%, 22% and 14%, respectively. In 2040, the health distribution among men aged 60-68 is estimated to be 63-71% in good health, 17-28% in moderate health and 9-12% in poor health. Among women this is estimated to be 64-69%, 17-24% and 12-14%, respectively.ConclusionsHealth of Dutch cohorts nearing the state pension age in the future is estimated to remain the same or improve up to 2040. This development in health is not an obstacle to raising the state pension age. However, due to the increasing state pension age and the baby boom generation reaching age 60+ in the coming years, the absolute number of people aged 60+ in poor and moderate health that participates in labor will increase. Policy aiming at sustainable employability will therefore become increasingly important.
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Loneliness and social isolation are increasingly recognized as important challenges of our times. Inspired by research hinting at beneficial effects of interacting with nature on social connectedness and opportunities provided by ambient technology to simulate nature in a rich and engaging manner, this study explored to what extent digital nature projections can stimulate social aspirations and related emotions. To this end, participants (N = 96) were asked to watch, individually or in pairs, digital nature projections consisting of animated scenes which were either dense or spacious and depicting either wild or tended nature. Subsequently, they filled out a questionnaire comprising measures for social aspirations, awe and fascination. Results show that spacious scenes elicited significantly higher social aspiration and awe scores, especially when watching alone. Design implications are discussed for making digital nature accessible for people with limited access to real nature.
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Epidemiological miner cohort data used to estimate lung cancer risks related to occupational radon exposure often lack cohort-wide information on exposure to tobacco smoke, a potential confounder and important effect modifier. We have developed a method to project data on smoking habits from a case-control study onto an entire cohort by means of a Monte Carlo resampling technique. As a proof of principle, this method is tested on a subcohort of 35,084 former uranium miners employed at the WISMUT company (Germany), with 461 lung cancer deaths in the follow-up period 1955–1998. After applying the proposed imputation technique, a biologically-based carcinogenesis model is employed to analyze the cohort's lung cancer mortality data. A sensitivity analysis based on a set of 200 independent projections with subsequent model analyses yields narrow distributions of the free model parameters, indicating that parameter values are relatively stable and independent of individual projections. This technique thus offers a possibility to account for unknown smoking habits, enabling us to unravel risks related to radon, to smoking, and to the combination of both.
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Diet related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), as well as micronutrient deficiencies, are of widespread and growing importance to public health. Authorities are developing programs to improve nutrient intakes via foods. To estimate the potential health andeconomic impact of these programs there is a wide variety of models. The aim of this review is to evaluate existing models to estimate the health and/or economic impact of nutrition interventions with a focus on reducing salt and sugar intake andincreasing vitamin D, iron, and folate/folic acid intake. The protocol of this systematic review has been registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016050873). The final search was conducted onPubMed and Scopus electronic databases and search strings were developed for salt/sodium, sugar, vitamin D, iron, and folic acid intake. Predefined criteria related to scientific quality, applicability, and funding/interest were used to evaluate the publications. In total 122 publications were included for a critical appraisal: 45 for salt/sodium, 61 for sugar, 4 for vitamin D, 9 for folic acid, and 3 for iron. The complexity of modelling the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions is dependent on the purpose and data availability. Although most of the models have the potential to provide projections of future impact, the methodological challenges are considerable. There is a substantial need for more guidance and standardization for future modelling, to compare results ofdifferent studies and draw conclusions about the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions.
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Since 1990, natural hazards have led to over 1.6 million fatalities globally, and economic losses are estimated at an average of around USD 260–310 billion per year. The scientific and policy communities recognise the need to reduce these risks. As a result, the last decade has seen a rapid development of global models for assessing risk from natural hazards at the global scale. In this paper, we review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, and we specifically examine whether and how they have examined future projections of hazard, exposure, and/or vulnerability. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards, and we identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. For example, there are a number of global risk studies focusing on hydrological, climatological, and meteorological hazards that have included future projections and disaster risk reduction measures (in the case of floods), whereas fewer exist in the peer-reviewed literature for global studies related to geological hazards. On the other hand, studies of earthquake and tsunami risk are now using stochastic modelling approaches to allow for a fully probabilistic assessment of risk, which could benefit the modelling of risk from other hazards. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales. Through this paper, we hope to encourage further dialogue on knowledge sharing between disciplines and communities working on different hazards and risk and at different spatial scales.
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Numerous laboratory-based studies recorded eye movements in participants with varying expertise when watching video projections in the lab. Although research in the lab offers the advantage of internal validity, reliability and ethical considerations, ecological validity is often questionable. Therefore the current study compared visual search in 13 adult cyclists, when cycling a real bicycle path and while watching a film clip of the same road. Dwell time towards five Areas of Interest (AOIs) is analysed. Dwell time (%) in the lab and real-life was comparable only for the low quality bicycle path. Both in real-life and the lab, gaze is predominantly driven towards the road. Since gaze behaviour in the lab and real-life tends to be comparable with increasing task-complexity (road quality), it is concluded that under certain task constraints laboratory experiments making use of video clips might provide valuable information regarding gaze behaviour in real-life.
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Because of its dependency on air transport, mitigating tourism greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions might become the most important challenge for the sustainability of the sector. Moreover climate change mitigation will be more and more in conflict with other sustainability objectives such as poverty alleviation and biodiversity conservation through tourism. Indeed, tourism increasingly contributes to global GHG emissions. Transport, and in particular air transport, have the largest share in those emissions, with respectively 75 per cent and 40 per cent of the tourism 5 per cent share of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions estimated for 2005 (UNWTO et al. 2008). In terms of the actual contribution to climate change, measured in radiative forcing, the share of air transport is between 54 per cent and 83 per cent of tourism, depending on assumptions made on non-CO2 effects of aviation (Scott et al. 2010). Projections show a strong growth, with more than a doubling by 2035 (UNWTO et al. 2008). In a context where climate policies try to maintain global warming within the limit of +2 °C, this current tourism growth is apparently at odds with global emission reduction targets (Bows, Anderson and Peeters, 2007; Gössling et al. 2010).
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Revolutionary advances in technology have been seen in many industries, with the IIoT being a prime example. The IIoT creates a network of interconnected devices, allowing smooth communication and interoperability in industrial settings. This not only boosts efficiency, productivity, and safety but also provides transformative solutions for various sectors. This research looks into open-source IIoT and edge platforms that are applicable to a range of applications with the aim of finding and developing high-potential solutions. It highlights the effect of open-source IIoT and edge computing platforms on traditional IIoT applications, showing how these platforms make development and deployment processes easier. Popular open-source IIoT platforms include DeviceHive and Thingsboard, while EdgeX Foundry is a key platform for edge computing, allowing IIoT applications to be deployed closer to data sources, thus reducing latency and conserving bandwidth. This study seeks to identify potential future domains for the implementation of IIoT solutions using these open-source platforms. Additionally, each sector is evaluated based on various criteria, such as development requirement analyses, market demand projections, the examination of leading companies and emerging startups in each domain, and the application of the International Patent Classification (IPC) scheme for in-depth sector analysis.
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