There is emerging evidence that the performance of risk assessment instruments is weaker when used for clinical decision‐making than for research purposes. For instance, research has found lower agreement between evaluators when the risk assessments are conducted during routine practice. We examined the field interrater reliability of the Short‐Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV). Clinicians in a Dutch secure youth care facility completed START:AV assessments as part of the treatment routine. Consistent with previous literature, interrater reliability of the items and total scores was lower than previously reported in non‐field studies. Nevertheless, moderate to good interrater reliability was found for final risk judgments on most adverse outcomes. Field studies provide insights into the actual performance of structured risk assessment in real‐world settings, exposing factors that affect reliability. This information is relevant for those who wish to implement structured risk assessment with a level of reliability that is defensible considering the high stakes.
The chapter analyses knowledge management paradigms for the understanding and prioritisation of risks (risk assessment), leading to decision- making amongst policy makers. Studies and approaches on knowledge-based risk assessment, and in general risk management, vary depending on perceptions of risk, and these perceptions affect the knowledge scope and, ultimately, affect decisions on policy. Departing from the problems of big data in aviation, the shortcomings of the existing knowledge management paradigms and the problems of data conversion to knowledge in aviation risk management approaches are discussed. The chapter argues that there is a need for transciplinarity and interdisciplinarity for greater understanding of context, deriving from the challenges in the big data era and in aviation policy making. In order to address the challenging dynamic context in aviation, the chapter proposes a strength/knowledge-based inquiry that involves public sector and high-power organisations, in order to gain holistic knowledge and to aid the decision analysis of policy makers.
Decisions are used by organizations to manage and execute their coordinated, value-adding decision-making and are thereby among an organization’s most important assets. To be able to manage deci-sions and underlying business rules, Decision Management (DM) and Business Rules Management (BRM) are increasingly being applied at organisations. One of the latest developments related to the domain of DM and BRM is the introduction of the Decision Model and Notation (DMN) in September 2015 by the Object Management Group (OMG). The goal of this technical paper is to provide students with a case to practice the specification, verification, validation, deployment, execution, monitoring and governance of business rules in practice.
The Dutch main water systems face pressing environmental, economic and societal challenges due to climatic changes and increased human pressure. There is a growing awareness that nature-based solutions (NBS) provide cost-effective solutions that simultaneously provide environmental, social and economic benefits and help building resilience. In spite of being carefully designed and tested, many projects tend to fail along the way or never get implemented in the first place, wasting resources and undermining trust and confidence of practitioners in NBS. Why do so many projects lose momentum even after a proof of concept is delivered? Usually, failure can be attributed to a combination of eroding political will, societal opposition and economic uncertainties. While ecological and geological processes are often well understood, there is almost no understanding around societal and economic processes related to NBS. Therefore, there is an urgent need to carefully evaluate the societal, economic, and ecological impacts and to identify design principles fostering societal support and economic viability of NBS. We address these critical knowledge gaps in this research proposal, using the largest river restoration project of the Netherlands, the Border Meuse (Grensmaas), as a Living Lab. With a transdisciplinary consortium, stakeholders have a key role a recipient and provider of information, where the broader public is involved through citizen science. Our research is scientifically innovative by using mixed methods, combining novel qualitative methods (e.g. continuous participatory narrative inquiry) and quantitative methods (e.g. economic choice experiments to elicit tradeoffs and risk preferences, agent-based modeling). The ultimate aim is to create an integral learning environment (workbench) as a decision support tool for NBS. The workbench gathers data, prepares and verifies data sets, to help stakeholders (companies, government agencies, NGOs) to quantify impacts and visualize tradeoffs of decisions regarding NBS.
Over the past decade, the trend in both the public sector and industry has been to outsource ICT to the cloud. While cost savings are often used as a rationale for outsourcing, another argument that is frequently used is that the cloud improves security. The reasoning behind this is twofold. First, cloud service providers are typically thought to have skilled staff trained in good security practices. Second, cloud providers often have a vastly distributed, highly connected network infrastructure, making them more resilient in the face of outages and denial-of-service attacks. Yet many examples of cloud outages, often due to attacks, call into question whether outsourcing to the cloud does improve security. In this project our goal therefore is to answer two questions: 1) did the cloud make use more secure?and 2) can we provide specific security guidance to support cloud outsourcing strategies? We will approach these questions in a multi-disciplinary fashion from a technical angle and from a business and management perspective. On the technical side, the project will focus on providing comprehensive insight into the attack surface at the network level of cloud providers and their users. We will use a measurement-based approach, leveraging large scale datasets about the Internet, both our own data (e.g. OpenINTEL, a large- scale dataset of active DNS measurements) and datasets from our long-term collaborators, such as CAIDA in the US (BGPStream, Network Telescope) and Saarland University in Germany (AmpPot). We will use this data to study the network infrastructure outside and within cloud environments to structurally map vulnerabilities to attacks as well as to identify security anti-patterns, where the way cloud services are managed or used introduce a weak point that attackers can target. From a business point of view, we will investigate outsourcing strategies for both the cloud providers and their customers. For guaranteeing 100% availability, cloud service providers have to maintain additional capacity at all times. They also need to forecast capacity requirements continuously for financially profitable decisions. If the forecast is lower than the capacity needed, then the cloud is not able to deliver 100% availability in case of an attack. Conversely, if the forecast is substantially higher, the cloud service provider might not be able to make desired profits. We therefore propose to assess the risk profiles of cloud providers (how likely it is a cloud provider is under attack at a given time given the nature of its customers) using available attack data to improve the provider resilience to future attacks. From the costumer perspective, we will investigate how we can support cloud outsourcing by taking into consideration business and technical constraints. Decision to choose a cloud service provider is typically based on multiple criteria depending upon the company’s needs (security and operational). We will develop decision support systems that will help in mapping companies’ needs to cloud service providers’ offers.
In de toekomst zullen wateroverlast en droogte steeds vaker voorkomen. Hoewel water van grote betekenis is voor ons dagelijks leven - en Nederland een rijke traditie heeft van waterbeheer - maken sociale, culturele en historische waarden slechts sporadisch deel uit van watergerelateerd beleid. Omdat er bij wateropgaven veel verschillende partijen aan tafel zitten, is het belangrijk te snappen welke waarden meespelen bij besluitvormingsprocessen. Een serious game kan helpen bij het formuleren van die waarden om bij te dragen aan een beter ‘waterbewustzijn’ van zowel beleidsmakers als bewoners, en bewoners beter te betrekken bij hun eigen leefomgeving. Six Architecten, actief in bouw- en renovatieprojecten waarin water en erfgoed een rol spelen, lopen aan tegen een beleidsomgeving van tegengestelde belangen. De gameontwikkelaar IJsfontein in Amsterdam ontwikkelt serious games en heeft veel ervaring met het visualiseren van historisch materiaal voor musea en archieven, maar zoekt naar de kennis om deze vaardigheden toepasbaar te maken binnen de hedendaagse klimaatopgave. Met deze twee praktijkpartners werken onderzoekers van de TU Delft, op het gebied van watererfgoed, ontwerpen voor waarden (Delft Design for Values) en games (TPM), samen aan de WaterWaarden-game. Voor dit project gaan we in gesprek met beleidsmakers en bewoners om te achterhalen welke waarden er meespelen bij een selectie van objecten (zoals kades, dijken, gemalen) binnen de casus Amsterdam. Waternet, het waterbedrijf van de gemeente Amsterdam en het waterschap Amstel, Gooi en Vecht, zal bijdragen bij het contacten leggen met betrokken en het toetsen aan de beleidswerkelijkheid. Door de waarden en uitdagingen in specifieke opgaven in Amsterdam te analyseren en in de game te verwerken, werken we toe naar een prototype en een aanvraag om deze serious game te ontwikkelen tot een gameplatform dat in de toekomst ook bij wateropgaven in andere gebieden gebruikt kan worden.
