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The insignificance of statistical significance

KEY MESSAGE(S): - Medical research will not improve if we simply interpret our results using the clear-cut difference between statistical significance and non-significance - Medical researchers should be more interested in the size of the observed result than in its statistical significance - Confidence intervals provide more information than P-values.

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Developing students’ understanding of statistical graphs

Poster presented at the 14th Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education, Free University of Bozen-Bolsano, Italy.

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Developing students’ understanding of statistical graphs

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Marketing analytics

Marketing Analytics provides guidelines in the application of statistics using IBM SPSS Statistics Software (SPSS) for students and professionals using quantitative methods in marketing and consumer behavior. With simple language and a practical, screenshot-led approach, the book presents 11 multivariate techniques and the steps required to perform analysis. Each chapter contains a brief description of the technique, followed by the possible marketing research applications. One of these applications is then used in detail to illustrate its applicability in a research context, including the needed SPSS commands and illustrations. Each chapter also includes practical exercises that require the readers to perform the technique and interpret the results, equipping students with the necessary skills to apply statistics by means of SPSS in marketing and consumer research. Finally, there is a list of articles employing the technique that can be used for further reading.This textbook provides introductory material for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students studying marketing and consumer analytics, teaching methods along with practical software-applied training using SPSS. Support material includes two real data sets to illustrate the techniques’ applications and PowerPoint slides providing a step-by-step guide to the analysis and commented outcomes. Professionals are invited to use the book to select and use the appropriate analytics for their specific context.

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The Elements of Deformation Analysis

With summaries in Dutch, Esperanto and English. DOI: 10.4233/uuid:d7132920-346e-47c6-b754-00dc5672b437 "The subject of this study is deformation analysis of the earth's surface (or part of it) and spatial objects on, above or below it. Such analyses are needed in many domains of society. Geodetic deformation analysis uses various types of geodetic measurements to substantiate statements about changes in geometric positions.Professional practice, e.g. in the Netherlands, regularly applies methods for geodetic deformation analysis that have shortcomings, e.g. because the methods apply substandard analysis models or defective testing methods. These shortcomings hamper communication about the results of deformation analyses with the various parties involved. To improve communication solid analysis models and a common language have to be used, which requires standardisation.Operational demands for geodetic deformation analysis are the reason to formulate in this study seven characteristic elements that a solid analysis model needs to possess. Such a model can handle time series of several epochs. It analyses only size and form, not position and orientation of the reference system; and datum points may be under influence of deformation. The geodetic and physical models are combined in one adjustment model. Full use is made of available stochastic information. Statistical testing and computation of minimal detectable deformations is incorporated. Solution methods can handle rank deficient matrices (both model matrix and cofactor matrix). And, finally, a search for the best hypothesis/model is implemented. Because a geodetic deformation analysis model with all seven elements does not exist, this study develops such a model.For effective standardisation geodetic deformation analysis models need: practical key performance indicators; a clear procedure for using the model; and the possibility to graphically visualise the estimated deformations."

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Projects 5

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Automated Mobility traIninG prOgrams (AMIGO)

In the last decade, the automotive industry has seen significant advancements in technology (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicles) that presents the opportunity to improve traffic safety, efficiency, and comfort. However, the lack of drivers’ knowledge (such as risks, benefits, capabilities, limitations, and components) and confusion (i.e., multiple systems that have similar but not identical functions with different names) concerning the vehicle technology still prevails and thus, limiting the safety potential. The usual sources (such as the owner’s manual, instructions from a sales representative, online forums, and post-purchase training) do not provide adequate and sustainable knowledge to drivers concerning ADAS. Additionally, existing driving training and examinations focus mainly on unassisted driving and are practically unchanged for 30 years. Therefore, where and how drivers should obtain the necessary skills and knowledge for safely and effectively using ADAS? The proposed KIEM project AMIGO aims to create a training framework for learner drivers by combining classroom, online/virtual, and on-the-road training modules for imparting adequate knowledge and skills (such as risk assessment, handling in safety-critical and take-over transitions, and self-evaluation). AMIGO will also develop an assessment procedure to evaluate the impact of ADAS training on drivers’ skills and knowledge by defining key performance indicators (KPIs) using in-vehicle data, eye-tracking data, and subjective measures. For practical reasons, AMIGO will focus on either lane-keeping assistance (LKA) or adaptive cruise control (ACC) for framework development and testing, depending on the system availability. The insights obtained from this project will serve as a foundation for a subsequent research project, which will expand the AMIGO framework to other ADAS systems (e.g., mandatory ADAS systems in new cars from 2020 onwards) and specific driver target groups, such as the elderly and novice.

Finished

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Data mining for MRO process optimization

In order to stay competitive and respond to the increasing demand for steady and predictable aircraft turnaround times, process optimization has been identified by Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) SMEs in the aviation industry as their key element for innovation. Indeed, MRO SMEs have always been looking for options to organize their work as efficient as possible, which often resulted in applying lean business organization solutions. However, their aircraft maintenance processes stay characterized by unpredictable process times and material requirements. Lean business methodologies are unable to change this fact. This problem is often compensated by large buffers in terms of time, personnel and parts, leading to a relatively expensive and inefficient process. To tackle this problem of unpredictability, MRO SMEs want to explore the possibilities of data mining: the exploration and analysis of large quantities of their own historical maintenance data, with the meaning of discovering useful knowledge from seemingly unrelated data. Ideally, it will help predict failures in the maintenance process and thus better anticipate repair times and material requirements. With this, MRO SMEs face two challenges. First, the data they have available is often fragmented and non-transparent, while standardized data availability is a basic requirement for successful data analysis. Second, it is difficult to find meaningful patterns within these data sets because no operative system for data mining exists in the industry. This RAAK MKB project is initiated by the Aviation Academy of the Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences (Hogeschool van Amsterdan, hereinafter: HvA), in direct cooperation with the industry, to help MRO SMEs improve their maintenance process. Its main aim is to develop new knowledge of - and a method for - data mining. To do so, the current state of data presence within MRO SMEs is explored, mapped, categorized, cleaned and prepared. This will result in readable data sets that have predictive value for key elements of the maintenance process. Secondly, analysis principles are developed to interpret this data. These principles are translated into an easy-to-use data mining (IT)tool, helping MRO SMEs to predict their maintenance requirements in terms of costs and time, allowing them to adapt their maintenance process accordingly. In several case studies these products are tested and further improved. This is a resubmission of an earlier proposal dated October 2015 (3rd round) entitled ‘Data mining for MRO process optimization’ (number 2015-03-23M). We believe the merits of the proposal are substantial, and sufficient to be awarded a grant. The text of this submission is essentially unchanged from the previous proposal. Where text has been added – for clarification – this has been marked in yellow. Almost all of these new text parts are taken from our rebuttal (hoor en wederhoor), submitted in January 2016.

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Data-driven sustainable tourism: dealing with climate change

This project extends the knowledge and scope of carbon footprinting in tourism. Currently, the carbon footprint of holidaymakers is available as time-series based on the CVO (Continue Vakantie Onderzoek) for the years 2002, 2005 and all between 2008 and 2018. For one year, 2009, a report has also been written about inbound tourism. The carbon footprint of business travel has not been determined, whereas there has been considerable interest throughout the years from businesses to assess and mitigate their travel footprints. There is also increasing policy attention for travel footprints. In 2018, a modified setup of the CVO caused the need to revise our statistical model and correction factors to be developed to counter the potential effects of a trend-breach. The project aimed to check and improve the current syntax for Dutch holidaymakers, adjust the one for inbound tourism, and develop a new one for Dutch business travel. The project output includes a report on the carbon footprint of Dutch holidaymakers for 2018, on inbound tourism for 2014, and on Dutch business travel for 2016, based on the CVO, inbound tourim dataset, and CZO. The project ends with a workshop with stakeholders to identify the way forward in tourism carbon footprinting in the Netherlands (tools, applications, etc.)Project partners: NRIT Research, NBTC-NIPO Research, CBS

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Remediation of comPromised IoT Devices

Despite the benefits of the widespread deployment of diverse Internet-enabled devices such as IP cameras and smart home appliances - the so-called Internet of Things (IoT) has amplified the attack surface that is being leveraged by cyber criminals. While manufacturers and vendors keep deploying new products, infected devices can be counted in the millions and spreading at an alarming rate all over consumer and business networks. The objective of this project is twofold: (i) to explain the causes behind these infections and the inherent insecurity of the IoT paradigm by exploring innovative data analytics as applied to raw cyber security data; and (ii) to promote effective remediation mechanisms that mitigate the threat of the currently vulnerable and infected IoT devices. By performing large-scale passive and active measurements, this project will allow the characterization and attribution of compromise IoT devices. Understanding the type of devices that are getting compromised and the reasons behind the attacker’s intention is essential to design effective countermeasures. This project will build on the state of the art in information theoretic data mining (e.g., using the minimum description length and maximum entropy principles), statistical pattern mining, and interactive data exploration and analytics to create a casual model that allows explaining the attacker’s tactics and techniques. The project will research formal correlation methods rooted in stochastic data assemblies between IoT-relevant measurements and IoT malware binaries as captured by an IoT-specific honeypot to aid in the attribution and thus the remediation objective. Research outcomes of this project will benefit society in addressing important IoT security problems before manufacturers saturate the market with ostensibly useful and innovative gadgets that lack sufficient security features, thus being vulnerable to attacks and malware infestations, which can turn them into rogue agents. However, the insights gained will not be limited to the attacker behavior and attribution, but also to the remediation of the infected devices. Based on a casual model and output of the correlation analyses, this project will follow an innovative approach to understand the remediation impact of malware notifications by conducting a longitudinal quasi-experimental analysis. The quasi-experimental analyses will examine remediation rates of infected/vulnerable IoT devices in order to make better inferences about the impact of the characteristics of the notification and infected user’s reaction. The research will provide new perspectives, information, insights, and approaches to vulnerability and malware notifications that differ from the previous reliance on models calibrated with cross-sectional analysis. This project will enable more robust use of longitudinal estimates based on documented remediation change. Project results and methods will enhance the capacity of Internet intermediaries (e.g., ISPs and hosting providers) to better handle abuse/vulnerability reporting which in turn will serve as a preemptive countermeasure. The data and methods will allow to investigate the behavior of infected individuals and firms at a microscopic scale and reveal the causal relations among infections, human factor and remediation.

Ongoing

Products 3.528

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The insignificance of statistical significance

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