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Introducing object-oriented modelling to cybercrime scripting: visualisation for improved analysis

Crime script analysis as a methodology to analyse criminal processes is underdeveloped. This is apparent from the various approaches in which scholars apply crime scripting and present their cybercrime scripts. The plethora of scripting methods raise significant concerns about the reliability and validity of these scripting studies. In this methodological paper, we demonstrate how object-oriented modelling (OOM) could address some of the currently identified methodological issues, thereby refining crime script analysis. More specifically, we suggest to visualise crime scripts using static and dynamic modelling with the Unified Modelling Language (UML) to harmonise cybercrime scripts without compromising their depth. Static models visualise objects in a system or process, their attributes and their relationships. Dynamic models visualise actions and interactions during a process. Creating these models in addition to the typical textual narrative could aid analysts to more systematically consider, organise and relate key aspects of crime scripts. In turn, this approach might, amongst others, facilitate alternative ways of identifying intervention measures, theorising about offender decision-making, and an improved shared understanding of the crime phenomenon analysed. We illustrate the application of these models with a phishing script.

Coping with cybercrime victimization: An exploratory study into impact and change

In order to find out whether victims adequately recover from cybercrime incidents, it is important to gain insight into its effects and impact on users. However, as it stands now, there is not much literature on the impact of cybercrime. We address this gap by qualitatively examining the impact of two types of cybercrime, namely phishing and malware attacks targeting online banking customers. We used the coping approach as a framework to study how victims deal with the negative events they have experienced. In order to study the impact of cybercrime and how victims cope with it, 30 cybercrime victims were interviewed. We observed that, next to financial damage, victims described different forms of psychological and emotional effects. Victims also reported various kinds of secondary impacts, such as time loss and not being treated properly when handling the incident. In addition, the interview data provided insight into cognitive and behavioral change, which potentially offers opportunities for cybercrime prevention. Our study demonstrates that the level of impact varies among cybercrime victims, ranging from little or no impact to severe impact. In addition, while some victims were only affected for a few days, some were still feeling the effects. The effects and impact of these fraudulent schemes on victims should therefore not be underestimated. We conclude that the coping approach provides a useful framework to study the effects and impact of cybercrime victimization and how victims recover from it. The results of our study provide a steppingstone for future studies on this topic. https://www.linkedin.com/in/rutgerleukfeldt/

Cybercrime on the menu?

Criminologists have frequently debated whether offenders are specialists, in that they consistently perform either one offense or similar offenses, or versatile by performing any crime based on opportunities and situational provocations. Such foundational research has yet to be developed regarding cybercrimes, or offenses enabled by computer technology and the Internet. This study address this issue using a sample of 37 offender networks. The results show variations in the offending behaviors of those involved in cybercrime. Almost half of the offender networks in this sample appeared to be cybercrime specialists, in that they only performed certain forms of cybercrime. The other half performed various types of crimes on and offline. The relative equity in specialization relative to versatility, particularly in both on and offline activities, suggests that there may be limited value in treating cybercriminals as a distinct offender group. Furthermore, this study calls to question what factors influence an offender's pathway into cybercrime, whether as a specialized or versatile offender. The actors involved in cybercrime networks, whether as specialists or generalists, were enmeshed into broader online offender networks who may have helped recognize and act on opportunities to engage in phishing, malware, and other economic offenses.

Examining the cyclical nature of crimes: A looped crime script of data theft from organizational networks

Prior research on network attacks is predominantly technical, yet little is known about behavioral patterns of attackers inside computer systems. This study adopts a criminological perspective to examine these patterns, with a particular focus on data thieves targeting organizational networks. By conducting interviews with cybersecurity experts and applying crime script analysis, we developed a comprehensive script that describes the typical progression of attackers through organizational systems and networks in order to eventually steal data. This script integrates phases identified in previous academic literature and expert-defined phases that resemble phases from industry threat models. However, in contrast to prior cybercrime scripts and industry threat models, we did not only identify sequential phases, but also illustrate the circular nature of network attacks. This finding challenges traditional perceptions of crime as a linear process. In addition, our findings underscore the importance of considering both successful and failed attacks in cybercrime research to develop more effective cybersecurity strategies.

Criminal clickbait: a panel data analysis on the attractiveness of online advertisements offering stolen data

Introduction: Few studies have examined the sales of stolen account credentials on darkweb markets. In this study, we tested how advertisement characteristics affect the popularity of illicit online advertisements offering account credentials. Unlike previous criminological research, we take a novel approach by assessing the applicability of knowledge on regular consumer behaviours instead of theories explaining offender behaviour.Methods: We scraped 1,565 unique advertisements offering credentials on a darkweb market. We used this panel data set to predict the simultaneous effects of the asking price, endorsement cues and title elements on advertisement popularity by estimating several hybrid panel data models.Results: Most of our findings disconfirm our hypotheses. Asking price did not affect advertisement popularity. Endorsement cues, including vendor reputation and cumulative sales and views, had mixed and negative relationships, respectively, with advertisement popularity.Discussion: Our results might suggest that account credentials are not simply regular products, but high-risk commodities that, paradoxically, become less attractive as they gain popularity. This study highlights the necessity of a deeper understanding of illicit online market dynamics to improve theories on illicit consumer behaviours and assist cybersecurity experts in disrupting criminal business models more effectively. We propose several avenues for future experimental research to gain further insights into these illicit processes.