Search results

The role of perceived contribution to the energy transition in acceptance of renewable energy sources

System Integration in the Energy Transition

Lectorale redeboekje naar aanleiding van de intrede in het lectoraat Systeemintegratie in de energietransitie

H2020 Sustenance - D6.4

Key takeaways from the project underscore the importance of fostering long-term collaborations between technical experts, communities, and institutional partners. By integrating technical innovation with human-centred design, the SUSTENANCE project has not only advanced renewable energy adoption but also established a framework for empowering communities to actively participate in sustainable energy transitions. Moving forward, the lessons learned, and solutions developed provide a solid foundation for addressing future challenges in energy system decarbonization and resilience.

Playing for a sustainable future

Energy transition is key to achieving a sustainable future. However, in this transition, an often neglected pillar is raising awareness and educating individuals on the benefits, complexities, and urgency of renewable energy supply and energy efficiency. This paper exemplifies an educational practice to create awareness on sustainable energy transition by playing a “serious” game, the We Energy Game. Concretely, this qualitative study aims to analyze communicational and educational aspects of the game by making use of a validated framework for serious games analysis, and to expose the opinion of players after maintaining group discussions. The analysis reveals a detailed insight of narrative elements, messages, and gameplay mechanisms, but also educative aspects to be considered by teachers if they are interested in putting the game into practice in their classes. The group discussion reveals that the game has been more successful in achieving cognitive (understanding/knowledge) and affective (emotion/interest and concern) engagement than in motivating attitudinal or behavioral engagement.

Modelling Complex Relationships Between Sustainable Competitiveness and Digitalization

Digitalization is the core component of future development in the 4.0 industrial era. It represents a powerful mechanism for enhancing the sustainable competitiveness of economies worldwide. Diverse triggering effects shape future digitalization trends. Thus, the main research goal in this study is to use sustainable competitiveness pillars (such as social, economic, environmental and energy) to evaluate international digitalization development. The proposed empirical model generates comprehensive knowledge of the sustainable competitiveness-digitalization nexus. For that purpose, a nonlinear regression has been applied on gathered annual data that consist of 33 European countries, ranging from 2010 to 2016. The dataset has been deployed using Bernoulli’s binominal distribution to derive training and testing samples and the entire analysis has been adjusted in that context. The empirical findings of artificial neural networks (ANN) suggest strong effects of the economic and energy use indicators on the digitalization progress. Nonlinear regression and ANN model summary report valuable results with a high degree of coefficient of determination (R2>0.9 for all models). Research findings state that the digitalization process is multidimensional and cannot be evaluated as an isolated phenomenon without incorporating other relevant factors that emerge in the environment. Indicators report the consumption of electrical energy in industry and households and GDP per capita to achieve the strongest effect.

Building and building systems energy prediction models to enhance energy flexibility control

The built environment requires energy-flexible buildings to reduce energy peak loads and to maximize the use of (decentralized) renewable energy sources. The challenge is to arrive at smart control strategies that respond to the increasing variations in both the energy demand as well as the variable energy supply. This enables grid integration in existing energy networks with limited capacity and maximises use of decentralized sustainable generation. Buildings can play a key role in the optimization of the grid capacity by applying demand-side management control. To adjust the grid energy demand profile of a building without compromising the user requirements, the building should acquire some energy flexibility capacity. The main ambition of the Brains for Buildings Work Package 2 is to develop smart control strategies that use the operational flexibility of non-residential buildings to minimize energy costs, reduce emissions and avoid spikes in power network load, without compromising comfort levels. To realise this ambition the following key components will be developed within the B4B WP2: (A) Development of open-source HVAC and electric services models, (B) development of energy demand prediction models and (C) development of flexibility management control models. This report describes the developed first two key components, (A) and (B). This report presents different prediction models covering various building components. The models are from three different types: white box models, grey-box models, and black-box models. Each model developed is presented in a different chapter. The chapters start with the goal of the prediction model, followed by the description of the model and the results obtained when applied to a case study. The models developed are two approaches based on white box models (1) White box models based on Modelica libraries for energy prediction of a building and its components and (2) Hybrid predictive digital twin based on white box building models to predict the dynamic energy response of the building and its components. (3) Using CO₂ monitoring data to derive either ventilation flow rate or occupancy. (4) Prediction of the heating demand of a building. (5) Feedforward neural network model to predict the building energy usage and its uncertainty. (6) Prediction of PV solar production. The first model aims to predict the energy use and energy production pattern of different building configurations with open-source software, OpenModelica, and open-source libraries, IBPSA libraries. The white-box model simulation results are used to produce design and control advice for increasing the building energy flexibility. The use of the libraries for making a model has first been tested in a simple residential unit, and now is being tested in a non-residential unit, the Haagse Hogeschool building. The lessons learned show that it is possible to model a building by making use of a combination of libraries, however the development of the model is very time consuming. The test also highlighted the need for defining standard scenarios to test the energy flexibility and the need for a practical visualization if the simulation results are to be used to give advice about potential increase of the energy flexibility. The goal of the hybrid model, which is based on a white based model for the building and systems and a data driven model for user behaviour, is to predict the energy demand and energy supply of a building. The model's application focuses on the use case of the TNO building at Stieltjesweg in Delft during a summer period, with a specific emphasis on cooling demand. Preliminary analysis shows that the monitoring results of the building behaviour is in line with the simulation results. Currently, development is in progress to improve the model predictions by including the solar shading from surrounding buildings, models of automatic shading devices, and model calibration including the energy use of the chiller. The goal of the third model is to derive recent and current ventilation flow rate over time based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and occupancy, as well as deriving recent and current occupancy over time, based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. The grey-box model used is based on the GEKKO python tool. The model was tested with the data of 6 Windesheim University of Applied Sciences office rooms. The model had low precision deriving the ventilation flow rate, especially at low CO2 concentration rates. The model had a good precision deriving occupancy from CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. Further research is needed to determine if these findings apply in different situations, such as meeting spaces and classrooms. The goal of the fourth chapter is to compare the working of a simplified white box model and black-box model to predict the heating energy use of a building. The aim is to integrate these prediction models in the energy management system of SME buildings. The two models have been tested with data from a residential unit since at the time of the analysis the data of a SME building was not available. The prediction models developed have a low accuracy and in their current form cannot be integrated in an energy management system. In general, black-box model prediction obtained a higher accuracy than the white box model. The goal of the fifth model is to predict the energy use in a building using a black-box model and measure the uncertainty in the prediction. The black-box model is based on a feed-forward neural network. The model has been tested with the data of two buildings: educational and commercial buildings. The strength of the model is in the ensemble prediction and the realization that uncertainty is intrinsically present in the data as an absolute deviation. Using a rolling window technique, the model can predict energy use and uncertainty, incorporating possible building-use changes. The testing in two different cases demonstrates the applicability of the model for different types of buildings. The goal of the sixth and last model developed is to predict the energy production of PV panels in a building with the use of a black-box model. The choice for developing the model of the PV panels is based on the analysis of the main contributors of the peak energy demand and peak energy delivery in the case of the DWA office building. On a fault free test set, the model meets the requirements for a calibrated model according to the FEMP and ASHRAE criteria for the error metrics. According to the IPMVP criteria the model should be improved further. The results of the performance metrics agree in range with values as found in literature. For accurate peak prediction a year of training data is recommended in the given approach without lagged variables. This report presents the results and lessons learned from implementing white-box, grey-box and black-box models to predict energy use and energy production of buildings or of variables directly related to them. Each of the models has its advantages and disadvantages. Further research in this line is needed to develop the potential of this approach.