Routine immunization (RI) of children is the most effective and timely public health intervention for decreasing child mortality rates around the globe. Pakistan being a low-and-middle-income-country (LMIC) has one of the highest child mortality rates in the world occurring mainly due to vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs). For improving RI coverage, a critical need is to establish potential RI defaulters at an early stage, so that appropriate interventions can be targeted towards such population who are identified to be at risk of missing on their scheduled vaccine uptakes. In this paper, a machine learning (ML) based predictive model has been proposed to predict defaulting and non-defaulting children on upcoming immunization visits and examine the effect of its underlying contributing factors. The predictive model uses data obtained from Paigham-e-Sehat study having immunization records of 3,113 children. The design of predictive model is based on obtaining optimal results across accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity, to ensure model outcomes remain practically relevant to the problem addressed. Further optimization of predictive model is obtained through selection of significant features and removing data bias. Nine machine learning algorithms were applied for prediction of defaulting children for the next immunization visit. The results showed that the random forest model achieves the optimal accuracy of 81.9% with 83.6% sensitivity and 80.3% specificity. The main determinants of vaccination coverage were found to be vaccine coverage at birth, parental education, and socio-economic conditions of the defaulting group. This information can assist relevant policy makers to take proactive and effective measures for developing evidence based targeted and timely interventions for defaulting children.
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Background: The immunization uptake rates in Pakistan are much lower than desired. Major reasons include lack of awareness, parental forgetfulness regarding schedules, and misinformation regarding vaccines. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic and distancing measures, routine childhood immunization (RCI) coverage has been adversely affected, as caregivers avoid tertiary care hospitals or primary health centers. Innovative and cost-effective measures must be taken to understand and deal with the issue of low immunization rates. However, only a few smartphone-based interventions have been carried out in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to improve RCI. Objective: The primary objectives of this study are to evaluate whether a personalized mobile app can improve children’s on-time visits at 10 and 14 weeks of age for RCI as compared with standard care and to determine whether an artificial intelligence model can be incorporated into the app. Secondary objectives are to determine the perceptions and attitudes of caregivers regarding childhood vaccinations and to understand the factors that might influence the effect of a mobile phone–based app on vaccination improvement. Methods: A mixed methods randomized controlled trial was designed with intervention and control arms. The study will be conducted at the Aga Khan University Hospital vaccination center. Caregivers of newborns or infants visiting the center for their children’s 6-week vaccination will be recruited. The intervention arm will have access to a smartphone app with text, voice, video, and pictorial messages regarding RCI. This app will be developed based on the findings of the pretrial qualitative component of the study, in addition to no-show study findings, which will explore caregivers’ perceptions about RCI and a mobile phone–based app in improving RCI coverage. Results: Pretrial qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted in February 2020. Enrollment of study participants for the randomized controlled trial is in process. Study exit interviews will be conducted at the 14-week immunization visits, provided the caregivers visit the immunization facility at that time, or over the phone when the children are 18 weeks of age. Conclusions: This study will generate useful insights into the feasibility, acceptability, and usability of an Android-based smartphone app for improving RCI in Pakistan and in LMICs.
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The paper explores whether and under what conditions, vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 may become a mandatory requirement for employees. It includes a discussion on EU action on SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and its relevance for national level policy with emphasis on the legal basis and instruments used by the Union to persuade national authorities into action to increase vaccination uptake. The analysis then moves to the national level by focusing on the case of Hungary. Following an overview of the legal and regulatory framework for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines deployment, the analysis zooms into the sphere of employment and explores whether and how the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination may be turned into a mandatory workplace safety requirement. The paper highlights the decision of the Hungarian government to introduce compulsory vaccination for employees in the healthcare sector, and concludes with a discussion of the relevant rules and their potential, broader implications.
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Abstract Background: COVID-19 was first identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China. The virus quickly spread and was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020. After infection, symptoms such as fever, a (dry) cough, nasal congestion, and fatigue can develop. In some cases, the virus causes severe complications such as pneumonia and dyspnea and could result in death. The virus also spread rapidly in the Netherlands, a small and densely populated country with an aging population. Health care in the Netherlands is of a high standard, but there were nevertheless problems with hospital capacity, such as the number of available beds and staff. There were also regions and municipalities that were hit harder than others. In the Netherlands, there are important data sources available for daily COVID-19 numbers and information about municipalities. Objective: We aimed to predict the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands, using a data set with the properties of 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and advanced modeling techniques. Methods: We collected relevant static data per municipality from data sources that were available in the Dutch public domain and merged these data with the dynamic daily number of infections from January 1, 2020, to May 9, 2021, resulting in a data set with 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and variables grouped into 20 topics. The modeling techniques random forest and multiple fractional polynomials were used to construct a prediction model for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands. Results: The final prediction model had an R2 of 0.63. Important properties for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality in the Netherlands were exposure to particulate matter with diameters <10 μm (PM10) in the air, the percentage of Labour party voters, and the number of children in a household. Conclusions: Data about municipality properties in relation to the cumulative number of confirmed infections in a municipality in the Netherlands can give insight into the most important properties of a municipality for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality. This insight can provide policy makers with tools to cope with COVID-19 and may also be of value in the event of a future pandemic, so that municipalities are better prepared.
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Powerpresentatie tijdens CORAL symposium.
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Increasingly, Instagram is discussed as a site for misinformation, inau-thentic activities, and polarization, particularly in recent studies aboutelections, the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccines. In this study, we havefound a different platform. By looking at the content that receives themost interactions over two time periods (in 2020) related to three U.S.presidential candidates and the issues of COVID-19, healthcare, 5G andgun control, we characterize Instagram as a site of earnest (as opposedto ambivalent) political campaigning and moral support, with a rela-tive absence of polarizing content (particularly from influencers) andlittle to no misinformation and artificial amplification practices. Mostimportantly, while misinformation and polarization might be spreadingon the platform, they do not receive much user interaction.
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Aims: Prescribing errors among junior doctors are common in clinical practice because many lack prescribing competence after graduation. This is in part due to inadequate education in clinical pharmacology and therapeutics (CP&T) in the undergraduate medical curriculum. To support CP&T education, it is important to determine which drugs medical undergraduates should be able to prescribe safely and effectively without direct supervision by the time they graduate. Currently, there is no such list with broad-based consensus. Therefore, the aim was to reach consensus on a list of essential drugs for undergraduate medical education in the Netherlands. Methods: A two-round modified Delphi study was conducted among pharmacists, medical specialists, junior doctors and pharmacotherapy teachers from all eight Dutch academic hospitals. Participants were asked to indicate whether it was essential that medical graduates could prescribe specific drugs included on a preliminary list. Drugs for which ≥80% of all respondents agreed or strongly agreed were included in the final list. Results: In all, 42 (65%) participants completed the two Delphi rounds. A total of 132 drugs (39%) from the preliminary list and two (3%) newly proposed drugs were included. Conclusions: This is the first Delphi consensus study to identify the drugs that Dutch junior doctors should be able to prescribe safely and effectively without direct supervision. This list can be used to harmonize and support the teaching and assessment of CP&T. Moreover, this study shows that a Delphi method is suitable to reach consensus on such a list, and could be used for a European list.
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Background: Digital health is well-positioned in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) to revolutionize health care due, in part, to increasing mobile phone access and internet connectivity. This paper evaluates the underlying factors that can potentially facilitate or hinder the progress of digital health in Pakistan. Objective: The objective of this study is to identify the current digital health projects and studies being carried out in Pakistan, as well as the key stakeholders involved in these initiatives. We aim to follow a mixed-methods strategy and to evaluate these projects and studies through a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis to identify the internal and external factors that can potentially facilitate or hinder the progress of digital health in Pakistan. Methods: This study aims to evaluate digital health projects carried out in the last 5 years in Pakistan with mixed methods. The qualitative and quantitative data obtained from field surveys were categorized according to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommended building blocks for health systems research, and the data were analyzed using a SWOT analysis strategy. Results: Of the digital health projects carried out in the last 5 years in Pakistan, 51 are studied. Of these projects, 46% (23/51) used technology for conducting research, 30% (15/51) used technology for implementation, and 12% (6/51) used technology for app development. The health domains targeted were general health (23/51, 46%), immunization (13/51, 26%), and diagnostics (5/51, 10%). Smartphones and devices were used in 55% (28/51) of the interventions, and 59% (30/51) of projects included plans for scaling up. Artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) was used in 31% (16/51) of projects, and 74% (38/51) of interventions were being evaluated. The barriers faced by developers during the implementation phase included the populations’ inability to use the technology or mobile phones in 21% (11/51) of projects, costs in 16% (8/51) of projects, and privacy concerns in 12% (6/51) of projects.
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This study evaluated the Toddler Oral Health Intervention (TOHI) for preventing early childhood caries (ECC) by 48 months. TOHI, an add-on to standard care in well-baby clinics (WBCs), aims to reduce ECC incidence and severity.
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Key summary points Aim To describe a guidance on the management of post-acute COVID 19 patients in geriatric rehabilitation. Findings This guidance addresses general requirements for post-acute COVID-19 geriatric rehabilitation and critical aspects for quality assurance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the guidance describes relevant care processes and procedures divided in five topics: patient selection; admission; treatment; discharge; and follow-up and monitoring. Message This guidance is designed to provide support to care professionals involved in the geriatric rehabilitation treatment of post-acute COVID-19 patients.
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