Search results

Pathway to zero emissions in global tourism: opportunities, challenges, and implications.

Circularity in value chains for building materials

The urgency for developing a circular economy is growing, and more and more companies and organisations are concerned with the importance of adapting their business to fit a changing economy. However, many analyses on the circular economy are still rather abstract and there is a lack of understanding about what circularity would mean for specific industries. This insufficient insight especially seems to be apparent in the building and construction sector. Besides, the building and construction sector is responsible for a major part of energy use and emissions. To tackle the issue of insufficient insight into the business consequences of circular developments, further research is necessary. Therefore, we propose to collaborate on a research project that aims to provide a more detailed level of analysis. The goal is to identify drivers and barriers to make better use of materials in the building and construction sector. This further research would benefit from an international collaboration between universities of applied sciences and industry from different European countries. An additional benefit of the applied orientation would be the relevance for professional education programmes. The article is published in the proceedings of the conference : http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/CARPE2019.2019.10582 Publisher Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València, 2019 www.lalibreria.upv.es / Ref.: 6523_01_01_01 Creative Commons Atribution-NonCommercial-NonDetivates-4.0 Int.

Building and building systems energy prediction models to enhance energy flexibility control

The built environment requires energy-flexible buildings to reduce energy peak loads and to maximize the use of (decentralized) renewable energy sources. The challenge is to arrive at smart control strategies that respond to the increasing variations in both the energy demand as well as the variable energy supply. This enables grid integration in existing energy networks with limited capacity and maximises use of decentralized sustainable generation. Buildings can play a key role in the optimization of the grid capacity by applying demand-side management control. To adjust the grid energy demand profile of a building without compromising the user requirements, the building should acquire some energy flexibility capacity. The main ambition of the Brains for Buildings Work Package 2 is to develop smart control strategies that use the operational flexibility of non-residential buildings to minimize energy costs, reduce emissions and avoid spikes in power network load, without compromising comfort levels. To realise this ambition the following key components will be developed within the B4B WP2: (A) Development of open-source HVAC and electric services models, (B) development of energy demand prediction models and (C) development of flexibility management control models. This report describes the developed first two key components, (A) and (B). This report presents different prediction models covering various building components. The models are from three different types: white box models, grey-box models, and black-box models. Each model developed is presented in a different chapter. The chapters start with the goal of the prediction model, followed by the description of the model and the results obtained when applied to a case study. The models developed are two approaches based on white box models (1) White box models based on Modelica libraries for energy prediction of a building and its components and (2) Hybrid predictive digital twin based on white box building models to predict the dynamic energy response of the building and its components. (3) Using CO₂ monitoring data to derive either ventilation flow rate or occupancy. (4) Prediction of the heating demand of a building. (5) Feedforward neural network model to predict the building energy usage and its uncertainty. (6) Prediction of PV solar production. The first model aims to predict the energy use and energy production pattern of different building configurations with open-source software, OpenModelica, and open-source libraries, IBPSA libraries. The white-box model simulation results are used to produce design and control advice for increasing the building energy flexibility. The use of the libraries for making a model has first been tested in a simple residential unit, and now is being tested in a non-residential unit, the Haagse Hogeschool building. The lessons learned show that it is possible to model a building by making use of a combination of libraries, however the development of the model is very time consuming. The test also highlighted the need for defining standard scenarios to test the energy flexibility and the need for a practical visualization if the simulation results are to be used to give advice about potential increase of the energy flexibility. The goal of the hybrid model, which is based on a white based model for the building and systems and a data driven model for user behaviour, is to predict the energy demand and energy supply of a building. The model's application focuses on the use case of the TNO building at Stieltjesweg in Delft during a summer period, with a specific emphasis on cooling demand. Preliminary analysis shows that the monitoring results of the building behaviour is in line with the simulation results. Currently, development is in progress to improve the model predictions by including the solar shading from surrounding buildings, models of automatic shading devices, and model calibration including the energy use of the chiller. The goal of the third model is to derive recent and current ventilation flow rate over time based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and occupancy, as well as deriving recent and current occupancy over time, based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. The grey-box model used is based on the GEKKO python tool. The model was tested with the data of 6 Windesheim University of Applied Sciences office rooms. The model had low precision deriving the ventilation flow rate, especially at low CO2 concentration rates. The model had a good precision deriving occupancy from CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. Further research is needed to determine if these findings apply in different situations, such as meeting spaces and classrooms. The goal of the fourth chapter is to compare the working of a simplified white box model and black-box model to predict the heating energy use of a building. The aim is to integrate these prediction models in the energy management system of SME buildings. The two models have been tested with data from a residential unit since at the time of the analysis the data of a SME building was not available. The prediction models developed have a low accuracy and in their current form cannot be integrated in an energy management system. In general, black-box model prediction obtained a higher accuracy than the white box model. The goal of the fifth model is to predict the energy use in a building using a black-box model and measure the uncertainty in the prediction. The black-box model is based on a feed-forward neural network. The model has been tested with the data of two buildings: educational and commercial buildings. The strength of the model is in the ensemble prediction and the realization that uncertainty is intrinsically present in the data as an absolute deviation. Using a rolling window technique, the model can predict energy use and uncertainty, incorporating possible building-use changes. The testing in two different cases demonstrates the applicability of the model for different types of buildings. The goal of the sixth and last model developed is to predict the energy production of PV panels in a building with the use of a black-box model. The choice for developing the model of the PV panels is based on the analysis of the main contributors of the peak energy demand and peak energy delivery in the case of the DWA office building. On a fault free test set, the model meets the requirements for a calibrated model according to the FEMP and ASHRAE criteria for the error metrics. According to the IPMVP criteria the model should be improved further. The results of the performance metrics agree in range with values as found in literature. For accurate peak prediction a year of training data is recommended in the given approach without lagged variables. This report presents the results and lessons learned from implementing white-box, grey-box and black-box models to predict energy use and energy production of buildings or of variables directly related to them. Each of the models has its advantages and disadvantages. Further research in this line is needed to develop the potential of this approach.

Gaining insights into dwelling characteristics using machine learning for policy making on nearly zero-energy buildings with the use of smart meter and weather data

Machine learning models have proven to be reliable methods in classification tasks. However, little research has been conducted on the classification of dwelling characteristics based on smart meter and weather data before. Gaining insights into dwelling characteristics, which comprise of the type of heating system used, the number of inhabitants, and the number of solar panels installed, can be helpful in creating or improving the policies to create new dwellings at nearly zero-energy standard. This paper compares different supervised machine learning algorithms, namely Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbor, and Long-short term memory, and methods used to correctly implement these algorithms. These methods include data pre-processing, model validation, and evaluation. Smart meter data, which was used to train several machine learning algorithms, was provided by Groene Mient. The models that were generated by the algorithms were compared on their performance. The results showed that the Long-short term memory performed the best with 96% accuracy. Cross Validation was used to validate the models, where 80% of the data was used for training purposes and 20% was used for testing purposes. Evaluation metrics were used to produce classification reports, which indicates that the Long-short term memory outperforms the compared models on the evaluation metrics for this specific problem.

Businessplan Smart Sustainable cities

Uit voorwoord Anton Franken, lid CvB `Smart Sustainable Cities is een platform voor het bedrijfsleven, kennisinstellingen en Hogeschool Utrecht waar gezamenlijk vernieuwende producten en diensten worden ontwikkeld die de realisatie van slimme, duurzame en gezonde steden dichterbij brengt. Startende en ervaren professionals hebben hiermee de mogelijkheid om via het onderwijs of via bij- en nascholing de nieuwste toepasbare kennis en inzichten op dit gebied op te doen. Tevens verricht het platform onderzoek. In projecten werken studenten, bedrijven, docenten en onderzoekers samen om nieuwe kennis en inzichten tot toepassing te brengen. Drie inhoudelijke thema’s staan centraal: ‘Stedelijke gebieden energieneutraal’, ‘Gezonde gebieden gezond gebouwd’ en ‘Duurzaam gedrag: mens en organisatie’ .`

Revision of EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive: what does this mean for the heating sector?

Ending subsidies for fossil fuel heating systems from 2025, and phasing out gas boilers and other fossil fuel heaters by 2040. These are just two of the outcomes of a political agreement between the EU Council and the European Parliament, which was reached on December 7, 2023. Which measures were agreed upon, and what will the implications be for the heating sector?