On the eve of the large-scale introduction of electric vehicles, policy makers have to decide on how to organise a significant growth in charging infrastructure to meet demand. There is uncertainty about which charging deployment tactic to follow. The main issue is how many of charging stations, of which type, should be installed and where. Early roll-out has been successful in many places, but knowledge on how to plan a large-scale charging network in urban areas is missing. Little is known about return to scale effects, reciprocal effects of charger availability on sales, and the impact of fast charging or more clustered charging hubs on charging preferences of EV owners. This paper explores the effects of various roll-out strategies for charging infrastructure that facilitate the large-scale introduction of EVs, using agent-based simulation. In contrast to previously proposed models, our model is rooted in empirically observed charging patterns from EVs instead of travel patterns of fossil fuelled cars. In addition, the simulation incorporates different user types (inhabitants, visitors, taxis and shared vehicles) to model the diversity of charging behaviours in an urban environment. Different scenarios are explored along the lines of the type of charging infrastructure (level 2, clustered level 2, fast charging) and the intensity of rollout (EV to charging point ratio). The simulation predicts both the success rate of charging attempts and the additional discomfort when searching for a charging station. Results suggest that return to scale and reciprocal effects in charging infrastructure are considerable, resulting in a lower EV to charging station ratio on the longer term.
This research contributes to understanding and shaping systems for OFMSW separation at urban Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs, such as offices, shops and service providers). Separating SMEs’ organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) is both an opportunity and a serious challenge for the transition towards circular cities. It is an opportunity because OFMSW represents approximately 40% of the total waste mass generated by these companies. It is challenging because post-collection separation is not feasible for OFMSW. Therefore, SMEs disposing of waste should separate their solid waste so that processing the organic fraction for reuse and recycling is practical and attainable. However, these companies do not experience direct advantages from the extra efforts in separating waste, and much of the OFMSW ends up in landfills, often resulting in unnecessary GHG emissions. Therefore, governments and waste processors are looking for ways to improve the OFMSW separation degree by urban companies disposing of waste through policies for behaviour change.There are multiple types of personnel at companies disposing of waste. These co-workers act according to their values, beliefs and norms. They adapt their behaviour continuously, influenced by the physical environment, events over time and self-evaluation of their actions. Therefore, waste separation at companies can be regarded as a Socio-Technical Complex Adaptive System (STCAS). Agent-based modelling and simulation are powerful methods to help understand STCAS. Consequently, we have created an agent-based model representing the evolution of behaviour regarding waste separation at companies in the urban environment. The model aims to show public and private stakeholders involved in solid waste collection, transport and processing to what extent behaviour change policies can shape the system towards desired waste separation degrees.We have co-created the model with participants utilising literature and empirical data from a case study on the transition of the waste collection system of a business park located at a former harbour area in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. First, a conceptual model of the system and the environment was set up through participatory workshops, surveys and interviews with stakeholders, domain experts and relevant actors. Together with our case participants, five policies that affect waste separation behaviour were included in the model. To model the behaviour of each company worker’s values, beliefs and norms during the separation and disposal of OFMSW, we have used the Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) Theory by Stern et al. (1999). We have collected data on waste collection behaviour and separation rates through interviews, workshops and a literature study to operationalise and validate the model.Simulation results show how combinations of behaviour profiles affect waste separation rates. Furthermore, findings show that single waste separation policies are often limitedly capable of changing the behaviour in the system. Rather, a combination of information and communication policies is needed to improve the separation of OFMSW, i.e., dissemination of a newsletter, providing personal feedback to the co-workers disposing of waste, and sharing information on the (improvement of) recycling rates.This study contributes to a better understanding of how policies can support co-workers’ pro-environmental behaviour for organic waste separation rates at SMEs. Thus, it shows policymakers how to stimulate the circular transition by actively engaging co-workers’ waste separation behaviour at SMEs. Future work will extend the model’s purpose by including households and policies supporting separating multiple waste types aimed at various R-strategies proposed by Potting et al. (2016).
MULTIFILE
Deployment and management of environmental infrastructures, such as charging infrastructure for Electric Vehicles (EV), is a challenging task. For policy makers, it is particularly difficult to estimate the capacity of current deployed public charging infrastructure for a given EV user population. While data analysis of charging data has shown added value for monitoring EV systems, it is not valid to linearly extrapolate charging infrastructure performance when increasing population size.We developed a data-driven agent-based model that can explore future scenarios to identify non-trivial dynamics that may be caused by EV user interaction, such as competition or collaboration, and that may affect performance metrics. We validated the model by comparing EV user activity patterns in time and space.We performed stress tests on the 4 largest cities the Netherlands to explore the capacity of the existing charging network. Our results demonstrate that (i) a non-linear relation exists between system utilization and inconvenience even at the base case; (ii) from 2.5x current population, the occupancy of non-habitual charging increases at the expense of habitual users, leading to an expected decline of occupancy for habitual users; and (iii) from a ratio of 0.6 non-habitual users to habitual users competition effects intensify. For the infrastructure to which the stress test is applied, a ratio of approximately 0.6 may indicate a maximum allowed ratio that balances performance with inconvenience. For policy makers, this implies that when they see diminishing marginal performance of KPIs in their monitoring reports, they should be aware of potential exponential increase of inconvenience for EV users.
