Zoekresultaten

An optimization-simulation closed-loop feedback framework for modeling the airport capacity management problem under uncertainty

This paper presents an innovative approach that combines optimization and simulation techniques for solving scheduling problems under uncertainty. We introduce an Opt–Sim closed-loop feedback framework (Opt–Sim) based on a sliding-window method, where a simulation model is used for evaluating the optimized solution with inherent uncertainties for scheduling activities. The specific problem tackled in this paper, refers to the airport capacity management under uncertainty, and the Opt–Sim framework is applied to a real case study (Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport, France). Different implementations of the Opt–Sim framework were tested based on: parameters for driving the Opt–Sim algorithmic framework and parameters for riving the optimization search algorithm. Results show that, by applying the Opt–Sim framework, potential aircraft conflicts could be reduced up to 57% over the non-optimized scenario. The proposed optimization framework is general enough so that different optimization resolution methods and simulation paradigms can be implemented for solving scheduling problems in several other fields.

An End-to-End Pipeline for Uncertainty Quantification and Remaining Useful Life Estimation: An Application on Aircraft Engines

Estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of an asset lies at the heart of prognostics and health management (PHM) of many operations-critical industries such as aviation. Mod- ern methods of RUL estimation adopt techniques from deep learning (DL). However, most of these contemporary tech- niques deliver only single-point estimates for the RUL without reporting on the confidence of the prediction. This practice usually provides overly confident predictions that can have severe consequences in operational disruptions or even safety. To address this issue, we propose a technique for uncertainty quantification (UQ) based on Bayesian deep learning (BDL). The hyperparameters of the framework are tuned using a novel bi-objective Bayesian optimization method with objectives the predictive performance and predictive uncertainty. The method also integrates the data pre-processing steps into the hyperparameter optimization (HPO) stage, models the RUL as a Weibull distribution, and returns the survival curves of the monitored assets to allow informed decision-making. We vali- date this method on the widely used C-MAPSS dataset against a single-objective HPO baseline that aggregates the two ob- jectives through the harmonic mean (HM). We demonstrate the existence of trade-offs between the predictive performance and the predictive uncertainty and observe that the bi-objective HPO returns a larger number of hyperparameter configurations compared to the single-objective baseline. Furthermore, we see that with the proposed approach, it is possible to configure models for RUL estimation that exhibit better or comparable performance to the single-objective baseline when validated on the test sets.

Data mining for aircraft maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO) process optimization

Presentation.

Optimization-Simulation implementations for harmonizing operations at big airports

The constant growth of air traffic, especially in Europe, is putting pressure on airports, which, in turn, are suffering congestion problems. The airspace surrounding airport, terminal manoeuvring area (TMA), is particularly congested, since it accommodates all the converging traffic to and from airports. Besides airspace, airport ground capacity is also facing congestion problems, as the inefficiencies coming from airspace operations are transferred to airport ground and vice versa. The main consequences of congestion at airport airspace and ground, is given by the amount of delay generated, which is, in turn, transferred to other airports within the network. Congestion problems affect also the workload of air traffic controllers that need to handle this big amount of traffic.This thesis deals with the optimization of the integrated airport operations, considering the airport from a holistic point of view, by including operations such as airspace and ground together. Unlike other studies in this field of research, this thesis contributes by supporting the decisions of air traffic controllers regarding aircraft sequencing and by mitigating congestion on the airport ground area. The airport ground operations and airspace operations can be tackled with two different levels of abstractions, macroscopic or microscopic, based on the time-frame for decision-making purposes. In this thesis, the airport operations are modeled at a macroscopic level.The problem is formulated as an optimization model by identifying an objective function that considers the amount of conflicts in the airspace and capacity overload on the airport ground; constraints given by regulations on separation minima between consecutive aircraft in the airspace and on the runway; decision variables related to aircraft entry time and entry speed in the airspace, landing runway and departing runway choice and pushback time. The optimization model is solved by implementing a sliding window approach and an adapted version of the metaheuristic simulated annealing. Uncertainty is included in the operations by developing a simulation model and by including stochastic variables that represent the most significant sources of uncertainty when considering operations at a macroscopic level, such as deviation from the entry time in the airspace, deviation in the average taxi time and deviation in the pushback time. In this thesis, optimization and simulation techniques are combined together by developing two methods that aim at improving the solution robustness and feasibility. The first method acts as a validation tool for the optimized solution, and it improves the robustness of solution by iteratively fine-tuning some of the optimization model input parameters. The second method embeds the optimization in a simulation environment by taking full advantage of the sliding window approach and creating a loop for a continuous improvement of the optimized solution at each window of the sliding window approach. Both methods prove to be effective by improving the performance, lowering the total amount of conflicts up to 23.33% for the first method and up to 11.2% for the second method, however, in contrast to the deterministic method, the two methods they are not able to achieve a conflict-free scenario due to the effect of uncertainty.In general, the research conducted in this thesis highlights that uncertainty is a factor that affects to a large extent the feasibility of optimized solution when applied to real-world instances, and it, moreover, confirms that using simulation together with optimization has the potentiality toivdeal with uncertainty. The framework developed can be potentially applied to similar problems and different optimization solving methods can be adapted to it.Keywords: Optimization, Simulation, Integrated airport operations, Uncertainty

Using simulation to estimate critical paths and survival functions in aircraft turnaround processes

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