There are substantial differences between models of the economic impacts of tourism. Not only do the nature and precision of results vary, but data demands, complexity and underlying assumptions also differ. Often, it is not clear whether the models chosen are appropriate for the specific situation to which they are applied. The goal of this article is to provide an overview and evaluation of criteria for the selection of economic impact models. A literature review produced 52 potential criteria, subdivided into 10 groups. Based on an analysis of experts' opinions, the perceived importance of each criterion was determined and a set of essential criteria created. To illustrate the usage of these essential criteria, five models (export base, Keynesian, ad hoc, input-output and computable general equilibrium) were evaluated and compared based on their performance on these criteria. This paper builds on the existing literature by showing that it is possible to make a more informed choice among economic impact models of tourism.
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High-tech horticulture production methods (such as vertical farming, hydroponics and other related technology possibilities), combined with evolving market side possibilities (consumer’s willingness to pay for variety, food safety and security), are opening new ways to create and deliver value. In this paper we present four emerging business models and attempt to understand the conditions under which each business model is able to create positive market value and sustained business advantage. The first of these four models is the case of a vertically integrated production to retail operation. The second model is the case of a production model with assured retail/distribution side commitment. The third model deals with a marketing/branding driven production model with differentiated market positioning. Finally, the forth is a production model with direct delivery to the end-consumer based upon the leveraging of wide spread digital technology in the consumer market. To demonstrate these four business models, we analyze practical case studies and analyze their market approach and impact. Using this analysis, we create a framework that enables entrepreneurs and businesses to adopt a business model that matches their capabilities with market opportunities.
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In tourism management, traditional input-output models are often applied to calculate economic impacts, including employment impacts. These models imply that increases in output are translated into proportional increases in labour, indicating constant labour productivity. In non-linear input- output (NLIO) models, final demand changes lead to substitution. This causes changes in labour productivity, even though one unit of labour ceteris paribus still produces the same output. Final demand changes can, however, also lead to employees working longer, harder and/or more efficiently. The goal of this article is to include this type of 'real' labour productivity change into an NLIO model. To do this, the authors introduce factor augmenting technical change (FATC) and a differentiation between core and peripheral labour. An NLIO model with and without FATC is used to calculate the regional economic impacts of a 10% final demand increase in tourism in the province of Zeeland in the Netherlands. Accounting for real productivity changes leads to smaller increase in the use of labour, as productivity increases allow output to be produced using fewer inputs.
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Diet related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), as well as micronutrient deficiencies, are of widespread and growing importance to public health. Authorities are developing programs to improve nutrient intakes via foods. To estimate the potential health andeconomic impact of these programs there is a wide variety of models. The aim of this review is to evaluate existing models to estimate the health and/or economic impact of nutrition interventions with a focus on reducing salt and sugar intake andincreasing vitamin D, iron, and folate/folic acid intake. The protocol of this systematic review has been registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016050873). The final search was conducted onPubMed and Scopus electronic databases and search strings were developed for salt/sodium, sugar, vitamin D, iron, and folic acid intake. Predefined criteria related to scientific quality, applicability, and funding/interest were used to evaluate the publications. In total 122 publications were included for a critical appraisal: 45 for salt/sodium, 61 for sugar, 4 for vitamin D, 9 for folic acid, and 3 for iron. The complexity of modelling the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions is dependent on the purpose and data availability. Although most of the models have the potential to provide projections of future impact, the methodological challenges are considerable. There is a substantial need for more guidance and standardization for future modelling, to compare results ofdifferent studies and draw conclusions about the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions.
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In this article, we calculate the economic impact of pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostela in the NUTS 2 region Galicia (Spain) in 2010. This economic impact is relevant to policymakers and other stakeholders dealing with religious tourism in Galicia. The analysis is based on the Input-Output model. Location Quotient formulas are used to derive the regional Input-Output table from the national Input-Output table of Spain. Both the Simple Location Quotient formula and Flegg's Location Quotient formula are applied. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is carried out. We found that pilgrimage expenditures in 2010 created between 59.750 million and 99.575 million in Gross Value Added and between 1, 362 and 2, 162 jobs. Most of the impact is generated within the 'Retail and Travel Services' industry, but also the 'Industry and Manufacturing', 'Services' and 'Financial and Real Estate Services' industries benefit from pilgrimage expenditures. This research indicates that in even in the most conservative scenario, the impact of pilgrimage is significant on the local economy of Galicia.
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In tourism and recreation management it is still common practice to apply traditional input-output (IO) economic impact models, despite their well-known limitations. In this study the authors analyse the usefulness of applying a non-linear input-output (NLIO) model, in which price-induced input substitution is accounted for. For large changes in final demand, a NLIO model is more useful than a traditional IO model, leading to higher or lower impacts. For small changes in final demand input substitution is less likely. In that case the application of the NLIO may lead to the same results as a traditional IO model. To analyse changes of subsidies, a traditional IO model is not an option. A more flexible model, such as the NLIO, is required. The NLIO model forces researchers to make choices about capacity constraints, factor mobility and the substitution elasticity, which can be difficult but create flexibility and allow for more realism.
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The built environment requires energy-flexible buildings to reduce energy peak loads and to maximize the use of (decentralized) renewable energy sources. The challenge is to arrive at smart control strategies that respond to the increasing variations in both the energy demand as well as the variable energy supply. This enables grid integration in existing energy networks with limited capacity and maximises use of decentralized sustainable generation. Buildings can play a key role in the optimization of the grid capacity by applying demand-side management control. To adjust the grid energy demand profile of a building without compromising the user requirements, the building should acquire some energy flexibility capacity. The main ambition of the Brains for Buildings Work Package 2 is to develop smart control strategies that use the operational flexibility of non-residential buildings to minimize energy costs, reduce emissions and avoid spikes in power network load, without compromising comfort levels. To realise this ambition the following key components will be developed within the B4B WP2: (A) Development of open-source HVAC and electric services models, (B) development of energy demand prediction models and (C) development of flexibility management control models. This report describes the developed first two key components, (A) and (B). This report presents different prediction models covering various building components. The models are from three different types: white box models, grey-box models, and black-box models. Each model developed is presented in a different chapter. The chapters start with the goal of the prediction model, followed by the description of the model and the results obtained when applied to a case study. The models developed are two approaches based on white box models (1) White box models based on Modelica libraries for energy prediction of a building and its components and (2) Hybrid predictive digital twin based on white box building models to predict the dynamic energy response of the building and its components. (3) Using CO₂ monitoring data to derive either ventilation flow rate or occupancy. (4) Prediction of the heating demand of a building. (5) Feedforward neural network model to predict the building energy usage and its uncertainty. (6) Prediction of PV solar production. The first model aims to predict the energy use and energy production pattern of different building configurations with open-source software, OpenModelica, and open-source libraries, IBPSA libraries. The white-box model simulation results are used to produce design and control advice for increasing the building energy flexibility. The use of the libraries for making a model has first been tested in a simple residential unit, and now is being tested in a non-residential unit, the Haagse Hogeschool building. The lessons learned show that it is possible to model a building by making use of a combination of libraries, however the development of the model is very time consuming. The test also highlighted the need for defining standard scenarios to test the energy flexibility and the need for a practical visualization if the simulation results are to be used to give advice about potential increase of the energy flexibility. The goal of the hybrid model, which is based on a white based model for the building and systems and a data driven model for user behaviour, is to predict the energy demand and energy supply of a building. The model's application focuses on the use case of the TNO building at Stieltjesweg in Delft during a summer period, with a specific emphasis on cooling demand. Preliminary analysis shows that the monitoring results of the building behaviour is in line with the simulation results. Currently, development is in progress to improve the model predictions by including the solar shading from surrounding buildings, models of automatic shading devices, and model calibration including the energy use of the chiller. The goal of the third model is to derive recent and current ventilation flow rate over time based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and occupancy, as well as deriving recent and current occupancy over time, based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. The grey-box model used is based on the GEKKO python tool. The model was tested with the data of 6 Windesheim University of Applied Sciences office rooms. The model had low precision deriving the ventilation flow rate, especially at low CO2 concentration rates. The model had a good precision deriving occupancy from CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. Further research is needed to determine if these findings apply in different situations, such as meeting spaces and classrooms. The goal of the fourth chapter is to compare the working of a simplified white box model and black-box model to predict the heating energy use of a building. The aim is to integrate these prediction models in the energy management system of SME buildings. The two models have been tested with data from a residential unit since at the time of the analysis the data of a SME building was not available. The prediction models developed have a low accuracy and in their current form cannot be integrated in an energy management system. In general, black-box model prediction obtained a higher accuracy than the white box model. The goal of the fifth model is to predict the energy use in a building using a black-box model and measure the uncertainty in the prediction. The black-box model is based on a feed-forward neural network. The model has been tested with the data of two buildings: educational and commercial buildings. The strength of the model is in the ensemble prediction and the realization that uncertainty is intrinsically present in the data as an absolute deviation. Using a rolling window technique, the model can predict energy use and uncertainty, incorporating possible building-use changes. The testing in two different cases demonstrates the applicability of the model for different types of buildings. The goal of the sixth and last model developed is to predict the energy production of PV panels in a building with the use of a black-box model. The choice for developing the model of the PV panels is based on the analysis of the main contributors of the peak energy demand and peak energy delivery in the case of the DWA office building. On a fault free test set, the model meets the requirements for a calibrated model according to the FEMP and ASHRAE criteria for the error metrics. According to the IPMVP criteria the model should be improved further. The results of the performance metrics agree in range with values as found in literature. For accurate peak prediction a year of training data is recommended in the given approach without lagged variables. This report presents the results and lessons learned from implementing white-box, grey-box and black-box models to predict energy use and energy production of buildings or of variables directly related to them. Each of the models has its advantages and disadvantages. Further research in this line is needed to develop the potential of this approach.
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