Objective To develop and internally validate a prognostic model to predict chronic pain after a new episode of acute or subacute non-specific idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain in patients presenting to physiotherapy primary care, emphasising modifiable biomedical, psychological and social factors. Design A prospective cohort study with a 6-month follow-up between January 2020 and March 2023. Setting 30 physiotherapy primary care practices. Participants Patients with a new presentation of non-specific idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain, with a duration lasting no longer than 12 weeks from onset. Baseline measures Candidate prognostic variables collected from participants included age and sex, neck pain symptoms, work-related factors, general factors, psychological and behavioural factors and the remaining factors: therapeutic relation and healthcare provider attitude. Outcome measures Pain intensity at 6 weeks, 3 months and 6 months on a Numeric Pain Rating Scale (NPRS) after inclusion. An NPRS score of ≥3 at each time point was used to define chronic neck pain. Results 62 (10%) of the 603 participants developed chronic neck pain. The prognostic factors in the final model were sex, pain intensity, reported pain in different body regions, headache since and before the neck pain, posture during work, employment status, illness beliefs about pain identity and recovery, treatment beliefs, distress and self-efficacy. The model demonstrated an optimism-corrected area under the curve of 0.83 and a corrected R2 of 0.24. Calibration was deemed acceptable to good, as indicated by the calibration curve. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test yielded a p-value of 0.7167, indicating a good model fit. Conclusion This model has the potential to obtain a valid prognosis for developing chronic pain after a new episode of acute and subacute non-specific idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain. It includes mostly potentially modifiable factors for physiotherapy practice. External validation of this model is recommended.
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Background: Rising healthcare costs, an increasing general practitioner shortage and an aging population have made healthcare organization transformation a priority. To meet these challenges, traditional roles of non-medical members have been reconsidered. Within the domain of physiotherapy, there has been significant interest in Extended Scope Physiotherapy (ESP). Although studies have focused on the perceptions of different stakeholders in relation to ESP, there is a large variety in the interpretation of ESP. Aim: To identify a paradigm of ESP incorporating goals, roles and tasks, to provide a consistent approach for the implementation of ESP in primary care. Methods: An exploratory, qualitative multi-step design was used containing a scoping review, focus groups and semi-structured interviews. The study population consisted of patients, physiotherapists, general practitioners and indirect stakeholders such as lecturers, health insurers and policymakers related to primary care physiotherapy. The main topics discussed in the focus groups and semi-structured interviews were the goals, skills and roles affiliated with ESP. The ‘framework’ method, developed by Ritchie & Spencer, was used as analytical approach to refine the framework. Results: Two focus groups and twelve semi-structured interviews were conducted to explore stakeholder perspectives on ESP in Dutch primary care. A total of 11 physiotherapists, six general practitioners, five patients and four indirect stakeholders participated in the study. There was a lot of support for ‘decreasing healthcare costs’, ‘tackling increased health demand’ and ‘improving healthcare effectiveness’ as main goals of ESP. The most agreement was reached on ‘triaging’, ‘referring to specialists’ and ‘ordering diagnostic imaging’ as tasks fitting for ESP. Most stakeholders also supported ‘working in a multidisciplinary team’, ‘working as a consultant’ and ‘an ESP role separated from a physiotherapist role’ as roles of ESP. Conclusions: Based on the scoping review, focus groups and interviews with direct and indirect stakeholders, it appears that there is sufficient support for ESP in the Netherlands. This study provides a clear presentation of how ESP can be conceptualized in primary care. A pilot focused on determining the feasibility of ESP in Dutch primary care will be the next step.
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Background Identify and establish consensus regarding potential prognostic factors for the development of chronic pain after a first episode of idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain. Design This study used two consensus group methods: a modified Nominal Group (m-NGT) and a Delphi Technique. Methods The goal of the m-NGT was to obtain and categorize a list of potential modifiable prognostic factors. These factors were presented to a multidisciplinary panel in a two-round Delphi survey, which was conducted between November 2018 and January 2020. The participants were asked whether factors identified are of prognostic value, whether these factors are modifiable, and how to measure these factors in clinical practice. Consensus was a priori defined as 70% agreement among participants. Results Eighty-four factors were identified and grouped into seven categories during the expert meeting using the modified NGT. A workgroup reduced the list to 47 factors and grouped them into 12 categories. Of these factors, 26 were found to be potentially prognostic for chronification of neck pain (> 70% agreement). Twenty-one out of these 26 factors were found to be potentially modifiable by physiotherapists based on a two-round Delphi survey. Conclusion Based on an expert meeting (m-NGT) and a two-round Delphi survey, our study documents consensus (> 70%) on 26 prognostic factors. Twenty-one out of these 26 factors were found to be modifiable, and most factors were psychological in nature.
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