Presenting techniques, case-studies and methodologies that combine the use of simulation approaches with optimization techniques for facing problems in manufacturing, logistics, or aeronautical problems, this book provides solutions to common industrial problems in several fields, which range from manufacturing to aviation problems, where the common denominator is the combination of simulation’s flexibility with optimization techniques’ robustness.
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Background: Modern modeling techniques may potentially provide more accurate predictions of dichotomous outcomes than classical techniques. Objective: In this study, we aimed to examine the predictive performance of eight modeling techniques to predict mortality by frailty. Methods: We performed a longitudinal study with a 7-year follow-up. The sample consisted of 479 Dutch community-dwelling people, aged 75 years and older. Frailty was assessed with the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI), a self-report questionnaire. This questionnaire consists of eight physical, four psychological, and three social frailty components. The municipality of Roosendaal, a city in the Netherlands, provided the mortality dates. We compared modeling techniques, such as support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), random forest, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, as well as classical techniques, such as logistic regression, two Bayesian networks, and recursive partitioning (RP). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) indicated the performance of the models. The models were validated using bootstrapping. Results: We found that the NN model had the best validated performance (AUROC=0.812), followed by the SVM model (AUROC=0.705). The other models had validated AUROC values below 0.700. The RP model had the lowest validated AUROC (0.605). The NN model had the highest optimism (0.156). The predictor variable “difficulty in walking” was important for all models. Conclusions: Because of the high optimism of the NN model, we prefer the SVM model for predicting mortality among community-dwelling older people using the TFI, with the addition of “gender” and “age” variables. External validation is a necessary step before applying the prediction models in a new setting.
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This paper presents an innovative approach that combines optimization and simulation techniques for solving scheduling problems under uncertainty. We introduce an Opt–Sim closed-loop feedback framework (Opt–Sim) based on a sliding-window method, where a simulation model is used for evaluating the optimized solution with inherent uncertainties for scheduling activities. The specific problem tackled in this paper, refers to the airport capacity management under uncertainty, and the Opt–Sim framework is applied to a real case study (Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport, France). Different implementations of the Opt–Sim framework were tested based on: parameters for driving the Opt–Sim algorithmic framework and parameters for riving the optimization search algorithm. Results show that, by applying the Opt–Sim framework, potential aircraft conflicts could be reduced up to 57% over the non-optimized scenario. The proposed optimization framework is general enough so that different optimization resolution methods and simulation paradigms can be implemented for solving scheduling problems in several other fields.
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The constant growth of air traffic, especially in Europe, is putting pressure on airports, which, in turn, are suffering congestion problems. The airspace surrounding airport, terminal manoeuvring area (TMA), is particularly congested, since it accommodates all the converging traffic to and from airports. Besides airspace, airport ground capacity is also facing congestion problems, as the inefficiencies coming from airspace operations are transferred to airport ground and vice versa. The main consequences of congestion at airport airspace and ground, is given by the amount of delay generated, which is, in turn, transferred to other airports within the network. Congestion problems affect also the workload of air traffic controllers that need to handle this big amount of traffic.This thesis deals with the optimization of the integrated airport operations, considering the airport from a holistic point of view, by including operations such as airspace and ground together. Unlike other studies in this field of research, this thesis contributes by supporting the decisions of air traffic controllers regarding aircraft sequencing and by mitigating congestion on the airport ground area. The airport ground operations and airspace operations can be tackled with two different levels of abstractions, macroscopic or microscopic, based on the time-frame for decision-making purposes. In this thesis, the airport operations are modeled at a macroscopic level.The problem is formulated as an optimization model by identifying an objective function that considers the amount of conflicts in the airspace and capacity overload on the airport ground; constraints given by regulations on separation minima between consecutive aircraft in the airspace and on the runway; decision variables related to aircraft entry time and entry speed in the airspace, landing runway and departing runway choice and pushback time. The optimization model is solved by implementing a sliding window approach and an adapted version of the metaheuristic simulated annealing. Uncertainty is included in the operations by developing a simulation model and by including stochastic variables that represent the most significant sources of uncertainty when considering operations at a macroscopic level, such as deviation from the entry time in the airspace, deviation in the average taxi time and deviation in the pushback time. In this thesis, optimization and simulation techniques are combined together by developing two methods that aim at improving the solution robustness and feasibility. The first method acts as a validation tool for the optimized solution, and it improves the robustness of solution by iteratively fine-tuning some of the optimization model input parameters. The second method embeds the optimization in a simulation environment by taking full advantage of the sliding window approach and creating a loop for a continuous improvement of the optimized solution at each window of the sliding window approach. Both methods prove to be effective by improving the performance, lowering the total amount of conflicts up to 23.33% for the first method and up to 11.2% for the second method, however, in contrast to the deterministic method, the two methods they are not able to achieve a conflict-free scenario due to the effect of uncertainty.In general, the research conducted in this thesis highlights that uncertainty is a factor that affects to a large extent the feasibility of optimized solution when applied to real-world instances, and it, moreover, confirms that using simulation together with optimization has the potentiality toivdeal with uncertainty. The framework developed can be potentially applied to similar problems and different optimization solving methods can be adapted to it.Keywords: Optimization, Simulation, Integrated airport operations, Uncertainty
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For long flights, the cruise is the longest phase and where the largest amount of fuel is consumed. An in-cruise optimization method has been implemented to calculate the optimal trajectory that reduces the flight cost. A three-dimensional grid has been created, coupling lateral navigation and vertical navigation profiles. With a dynamic analysis of the wind, the aircraft can perform a horizontal deviation or change altitudes via step climbs to reduce fuel consumption. As the number of waypoints and possible step climbs is increased, the number of flight trajectories increases exponentially; thus, a genetic algorithm has been implemented to reduce the total number of calculated trajectories compared to an exhaustive search. The aircraft’s model has been obtained from a performance database, which is currently used in the commercial flight management system studied in this paper. A 5% average flight cost reduction has been obtained.
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This research aims to find relevant evidence on whether there is a link between air capacity management (ACM) optimization and airline operations, also considering the airline business model perspective. The selected research strategy includes a case study based on Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport to measure the impact of ACM optimization variables on airline operations. For the analysis we use historical data which allows us to evaluate to what extent the new schedule obtained from the optimized scenario disrupts airline planned operations. The results of this study indicate that ACM optimization has a substantial impact on airline operations. Moreover, the airlines were categorized according to their business model, so that the results of this study revealed which category was the most affected. In detail, this study revealed that, on the one hand, Full-Service Cost Carriers (FSCCs) were the most impacted and the presented ACM optimization variables had a severe impact on slot allocation (approximately 50% of slots lost), fuel burn accounted as extra flight time in the airspace (approximately 12 min per aircraft) and disrupted operations (approximately between 31% and 39% of the preferred assigned runways were changed). On the other hand, the comparison shows that the implementation of an optimization model for managing the airport capacity, leads to a more balanced usage of runways and saves between 7% and 8% of taxi time (which decreases fuel emission).
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Airports and surrounding airspaces are limited in terms of capacity and represent the major bottleneck in the air traffic management system. This paper proposes a two level model to tackle the integrated optimization problem of arrival, departure, and surface operations. The macroscopic level considers the terminal airspace management for arrivals and departures and airport capacity management, while the microscopic level optimizes surface operations and departure runway scheduling. An adapted simulated annealing heuristic combined with a time decomposition approach is proposed to solve the corresponding problem. Computational experiments performed on real-world case studies of Paris Charles De-Gaulle airport, show the benefits of this integrated approach.
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Traditional IMU based PDR systems suffer from rapidly growing drift effects due to the inherent bias of the inertial sensor. Many existing solutions to mitigate this problem use aiding sensors or information as heuristics or map data. We propose a new optimization framework to solve the PDR estimation problem where the sensors biases are explicitly included as state variables and therefore be used to correct for bias effects in the PDR. By using a smoothing approach and exploiting the rigid structure of a MIMU array one can solve for the slowly varying sensor biases. This paper presents the method and gives an exemplary result of a walking trial. Good agreements in the position and orientation with an optical reference system were found. Moreover, accelerometer and gyroscope biases could be estimated accordingly. Further research includes the performance of more experiments under various conditions such that a more quantitative evaluation can be obtained. In addition, an exploration of a (pseudo) realtime filter version would be valuable such that the system can be applied online.
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Primary anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury prevention programs effectively reduce ACL injury risk in the short term. Despite these programs, ACL injury incidence is still high, making it imperative to continue to improve cur- rent prevention strategies. A potential limitation of current ACL injury prevention training may be a deficit in the transfer of conscious, optimal movement strategies rehearsed during training sessions to automatic movements required for athletic activities and unanticipated events on the field. Instructional strategies with an internal focus of attention have traditionally been utilized, but may not be optimal for the acquisition of the control of complex motor skills required for sports. Conversely, external-focus instructional strategies may enhance skill acquisition more efficiently and increase the transfer of improved motor skills to sports activities. The current article will present in- sights gained from the motor-learning domain that may enhance neuromuscular training programs via improved skill development and increased reten- tion and transfer to sports activities, which may reduce ACL injury incidence in the long term.
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Airports represent the major bottleneck in the air traffic management system with increasing traffic density. Enhanced levels of automation and coordination of surface operations are imperative to reduce congestion and to improve efficiency. This paper addresses the problem of comparing different control strategies on the airport surface to investigate their impacts and benefits. We propose an optimization approach to solve in a unified manner the coordinated surface operations problem on network models of an actual hub airport. Controlled pushback time, taxi reroutes and controlled holding time (waiting time at runway threshold for departures and time spent in runway crossing queues for arrivals) are considered as decisions to optimize the ground movement problem. Three major aspects are discussed:1) benefits of incorporating taxi reroutes on the airport performance metrics; 2) priority of arrivals and departures in runway crossings; 3) tradeoffs between controlled pushback and controlled holding time for departures. A preliminary study case is conducted in a model based on operations of Paris Charles De-Gaulle airport under the most frequently used configuration. Airport is modeled using a node-link network structure. Alternate taxi routes are constructed based on surface surveillance records with respect to current procedural factors. A representative peak-hour traffic scenario is generated using historical data. The effectiveness of the proposed optimization methods is investigated.
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