Zoekresultaten

De praktijk van toekomstscenario's

Om goed in te spelen op complexe ontwikkelingen in onze snel veranderende samenleving, hebben organisaties hulp en handvatten nodig. In dit artikel wordt daartoe een driestapsaanpak beschreven voor het inzetten van toekomstscenario’s bij strategievorming: identificeren van drivers for change; toekomstscenario’s creëren en toekomstscenario’s toepassen. Deze aanpak is in de praktijk toegepast, drie van deze praktijkcases worden hier beschreven: ‘Grafimedia 3.0’; ‘The food after tomorrow’ en ‘Een leefbare stad Eindhoven 2030’. Op basis van de resultaten uit deze cases en de verschillen en overeenkomsten ertussen kunnen de volgende aanbevelingen worden gegeven: de tijdshorizon van de toekomstscenario’s moet aansluiten bij de urgentie van de opdrachtgever; adequate begeleiding bij het toepassen van de toekomstscenario’s is onmisbaar en het is belangrijk om actief te zijn in het verbeelden van de toekomst, voor zowel de makers van de toekomstscenario’s als voor de opdrachtgever. In order to comply with the complex and rapid developments of our society when directing an organization, policymakers need help and guidance. To offer these, this article describes a three-step approach for using future scenarios in strategy development: the identification of drivers for change, the creation of future scenarios and the practical application of these future scenarios. This approach has been used in real life and three of these cases are described here: ‘Grafimedia 3.0’; ‘The food after tomorrow’ and ‘Een leefbare stad Eindhoven 2030’ (‘A livable Eindhoven in 2030’). The following recommendations can be derived based on the case results and their differences and similarities: the time scale of the future scenarios should match the urgency of the client’s situation, adequate tutoring in the practical application of the future scenarios is essential and, lastly, it is important, not only for the creators of the future scenarios but also for the client, to imagine the future in an active fashion.

Beyond manikins: Virtual simulation training in a post-COVID era

Anaesthesiology residents at Leiden University Medical Center regularly undergo simulation training with a full-body manikin. This is a vital aspect of the clinical programme providing a stressful yet safe environment for effective critical resource management (CRM) training. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic made real-life simulations challenging due to organizational and preventive measures. As a result, we explored asynchronous training opportunities utilizing a multiplayer virtual reality (VR) simulation. VR simulations can create personalized scenarios, facilitating differentiated learning through enhanced sensory immersion. VR offers full immersion with a high potential for visual effects, simultaneously allowing changes in patient characteristics such as sex, weight, external trauma and age, which is impossible with regular manikin training. The three-step approach involved (1) identifying user requirements, (2) developing a prototype and (3) assessing the projectandapos;s viability and interest for expansion.

How will the story end: followers’ prospective scenarios of organizational change

The aim of this paper is to understand how employees, in their role of follower of change, frame upcoming change by studying the prospective stories they tell (n=110). This study complements the dominant retrospective approach to the research of employees’ change sensemaking. We incorporate forward-looking awareness into organization theories and add to the scholarly interest in prospection (Gioia & Patvardhan, 2018). This could lead to a better understanding of followers’ adaptation- or rejection intentions in response to change initiatives (Konlechner et al., 2018). Theoretical background Employees experience continuous shifts in relationships and organizational roles (Van der Smissen et al., 2013). This ‘turbulence’ triggers intensive sensemaking (Weick, 1995) of what is going on and how to respond. In uncertain times, employees often form expectations towards the future based on their remembered experiences from the past, and organizational change literature has traditionally taken a retrospective approach to understand followers’ change sensemaking (Boje, 2008). However, traditional literature neither provides elaborate insight in followers’ attempts to build scenarios for their future, nor do they add to the understanding of followers’ hopes, dreams, concerns, or fears (which all have a future time orientation) in the context of upcoming change. Scholars suggested that the current radical changes employees face cannot be anticipated easily from a mere retrospective approach (MacKay & Chia, 2013). In reality, employees think as often about their future as they do about their past and tend to create complex, temporal ranges of future orientations (Klein, 2013). Hence, researchers have critiqued the omission of the possible impact of beliefs and expectations about the future (e.g., Kaplan & Orlikowski, 2013), and have developed complementary notions to develop temporal sensemaking to challenge us to “mentally reverse the arrow of time” (Lord et al., 2013, p. 4) by focusing on expected futures to understand the present. The acknowledgement of prospective sensemaking directing attitudes and behaviors today (Maitlis & Christianson, 2014), expectedly offers novel insights to those interesting in understanding employees’ change behaviors. Design/Methodology/Approach/Intervention. A narrative approach is used to capture 110 individuals’ idiosyncratic and cultural sensemaking efforts (Pentland, 1999). We created a digital research set-up in which participants were guided to write a narrative that resembles a biographical account about a fictive colleague. Participants were introduced to the task by a video message from the fictive focal actor “Jim” and a video announcement of upcoming change by a fictive CEO in a Zoom-call for the entire organization. By means of the Story Completion Method, participants were asked “how does the story end?” and invited to write subsequent chapters on how they expected this story to continue, and how the roles and responses of the different actors would unfold along the way. Research context is provided by the Dutch travel industry in which organizations are dealing with heavy consequences of the COVID19 pandemic. Results will be available by November 2021. Limitations Qualitative research is less generalizable given the sample size and scope. Besides, the method requires specific skills and a level of empathy with the scenario, this proved to be difficult for some of the participants. In our analysis we therefore have to account for a difference between prospective sensemaking efforts and mere extrapolations of past experiences. Research/Practical Implications This study reveals potentialities that are considered to be available in the future. For change leaders, it is helpful to understand these potentialities as they reveal explanations for differences in followers’ prospective change strategies, and diverse anticipative responses to change efforts. We extend the concept of prospective sensemaking, and explore its use in a follower-based, dynamic context of organizational change. Originality/Value Advancing the concept of follower-based prospective sensemaking is important as it could provide explorative notions that illustrate the formation and use of expectations. Especially interesting is the context Dutch travel industry context as employees at the time of data collection experienced a ‘cosmology episode’ triggering sudden loss of meaning and coherence. This is perceived to be a critical trigger for sensemaking in the absence of past empirical experience (as no one experienced a pandemic and resulting business challenges before, but rather relies on transcendent belief systems in the face of future uncertainty (Weick, 1993)).

The Future of Backpacking

By use of a literature review and an environmental scan four plausible future scenarios will be created, based on the research question: How could the future of backpack tourism look like in 2030, and how could tourism businesses anticipate on the changing demand. The scenarios, which allow one to ‘think out of the box’, will eventually be translated into recommendations towards the tourism sector and therefore can create a future proof company strategy.

The future of cultural tourism: steps towards resilience and future scenarios.

Embracing a constraints-led approach for skills acquisition in nursing education

Introduction: Nursing education traditionally teaches skill acquisition in isolated practice drills and guided by step-by-step protocols. While these approaches may seem to provide a solid foundation, they do not adequately bridge the gap between a controlled learning environment and the reality of nursing practice. The constraints-led approach (CLA) is an applied theory, which explains that skill acquisition is a process of adjusting to the characteristics of a situation, instead of reproducing isolated, “ideal” movements out of context. Given that CLA has gained recognition as an effective learning method in various fields, it is worth investigating how CLA can be implemented for skill acquisition in nursing education. Methods: To gain insight into student experiences of several CLA-exercises, an explorative qualitative design was used. Ten longitudinal focus groups with nursing students (n = 11) were performed to gain deeper understanding of students’ experiences with an education course in which several “CLA-exercises” were integrated. In addition, the teachers (n = 3) involved were interviewed after the course was completed. Results: The students experienced the education course as enjoyable, challenging and reality-based. Also, the exercises motivated students to keep practicing. The students further appreciated the room for autonomy and self-organization. The teachers expressed enthusiasm for CLA-inspired education, noting the benefits of varied methods and the need for expert feedback and well-working practice materials. Conclusion: Both students and teachers felt confident that the students who completed this course were ready to apply the learned skills under supervision in clinical practice.