Background: Early identification of older cardiac patients at high risk of readmission or mortality facilitates targeted deployment of preventive interventions. In the Netherlands, the frailty tool of the Dutch Safety Management System (DSMS-tool) consists of (the risk of) delirium, falling, functional impairment, and malnutrition and is currently used in all older hospitalised patients. However, its predictive performance in older cardiac patients is unknown. Aim: To estimate the performance of the DSMS-tool alone and combined with other predictors in predicting hospital readmission or mortality within 6 months in acutely hospitalised older cardiac patients. Methods: An individual patient data meta-analysis was performed on 529 acutely hospitalised cardiac patients ≥70 years from four prospective cohorts. Missing values for predictor and outcome variables were multiply imputed. We explored discrimination and calibration of: (1) the DSMS-tool alone; (2) the four components of the DSMS-tool and adding easily obtainable clinical predictors; (3) the four components of the DSMS-tool and more difficult to obtain predictors. Predictors in model 2 and 3 were selected using backward selection using a threshold of p = 0.157. We used shrunk c-statistics, calibration plots, regression slopes and Hosmer-Lemeshow p-values (PHL) to describe predictive performance in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results: The population mean age was 82 years, 52% were males and 51% were admitted for heart failure. DSMS-tool was positive in 45% for delirium, 41% for falling, 37% for functional impairments and 29% for malnutrition. The incidence of hospital readmission or mortality gradually increased from 37 to 60% with increasing DSMS scores. Overall, the DSMS-tool discriminated limited (c-statistic 0.61, 95% 0.56-0.66). The final model included the DSMS-tool, diagnosis at admission and Charlson Comorbidity Index and had a c-statistic of 0.69 (95% 0.63-0.73; PHL was 0.658). Discussion: The DSMS-tool alone has limited capacity to accurately estimate the risk of readmission or mortality in hospitalised older cardiac patients. Adding disease-specific risk factor information to the DSMS-tool resulted in a moderately performing model. To optimise the early identification of older hospitalised cardiac patients at high risk, the combination of geriatric and disease-specific predictors should be further explored.
ObjectivesInsight into older adults’ physical resilience is needed to predict functional recovery after hospitalization. We assessed functional trajectories in response to acute illness and subsequent hospitalization and investigated baseline variables and dynamic variables associated with these trajectories.DesignProspective observational cohort study (Hospitalization-Associated Disability and impact on daily Life Study).Setting and ParticipantsThis study included 207 older adults (aged 79.8 ± 6.9 years, 49% female, 57% frail) acutely hospitalized in 6 Dutch hospitals.MethodsFunctional disability was assessed using the 15-item modified activities of daily living index retrospectively 2 weeks before admission, and prospectively from admission up to 3 months after discharge. Baseline variables including frailty, somatic, physical, and psychosocial factors were assessed at admission. Dynamic variables (step count, pain, fatigue, and fear of falling) were continuously or repeatedly assessed during hospitalization. We performed individual spline modeling using random effects. Baseline variables and within-person mean levels and variability in the dynamic variables were assessed as predictors of functional trajectories.ResultsFunctional disability significantly increased before admission and decreased from admission to 3 months post discharge. Frail participants had a significantly higher increase in functional disability before admission compared with nonfrail participants. Lower step count, higher pain scores, and higher within-person variability in fear of falling were significantly associated with higher increase in functional disability before admission. Higher within-person variability in fear of falling was associated with more recovery.Conclusions and ImplicationsOlder adults increase in functional disability before hospitalization and start to recover from admission onward. Frailty and dynamic variables are associated with a higher increase in functional disability after acute illness. Our findings give more insight into older adults’ physical resilience, which may improve the prediction of functional recovery and may improve therapeutic decision-making and rehabilitation strategies to improve functional recovery after acute hospitalization.
OBJECTIVES: To determine the number of steps taken by older patients in hospital and 1 week after discharge; to identify factors associated with step numbers after discharge; and to examine the association between functional decline and step numbers after discharge.DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study conducted in 2015-2017.SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Older adults (≥70 years of age) acutely hospitalized for at least 48 hours at internal, cardiology, or geriatric wards in 6 Dutch hospitals.METHODS: Steps were counted using the Fitbit Flex accelerometer during hospitalization and 1 week after discharge. Demographic, somatic, physical, and psychosocial factors were assessed during hospitalization. Functional decline was determined 1 month after discharge using the Katz activities of daily living index.RESULTS: The analytic sample included 188 participants [mean age (standard deviation) 79.1 (6.7)]. One month postdischarge, 33 out of 174 participants (19%) experienced functional decline. The median number of steps was 656 [interquartile range (IQR), 250-1146] at the last day of hospitalization. This increased to 1750 (IQR 675-4114) steps 1 day postdischarge, and to 1997 (IQR 938-4098) steps 7 days postdischarge. Age [β = -57.93; 95% confidence interval (CI) -111.15 to -4.71], physical performance (β = 224.95; 95% CI 117.79-332.11), and steps in hospital (β = 0.76; 95% CI 0.46-1.06) were associated with steps postdischarge. There was a significant association between step numbers after discharge and functional decline 1 month after discharge (β = -1400; 95% CI -2380 to -420; P = .005).CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Among acutely hospitalized older adults, step numbers double 1 day postdischarge, indicating that their capacity is underutilized during hospitalization. Physical performance and physical activity during hospitalization are key to increasing the number of steps postdischarge. The number of steps 1 week after discharge is a promising indicator of functional decline 1 month after discharge.
