In Eastern Africa, increasing climate variability and changing socioeconomic conditions are exacerbating the frequency and intensity of drought disasters. Droughts pose a severe threat to food security in this region, which is characterized by a large dependency on smallholder rain-fed agriculture and a low level of technological development in the food production systems. Future drought risk will be determined by the adaptation choices made by farmers, yet few drought risk models … incorporate adaptive behavior in the estimation of drought risk. Here, we present an innovative dynamic drought risk adaptation model, ADOPT, to evaluate the factors that influence adaptation decisions and the subsequent adoption of measures, and how this affects drought risk for agricultural production. ADOPT combines socio-hydrological and agent-based modeling approaches by coupling the FAO crop model AquacropOS with a behavioral model capable of simulating different adaptive behavioral theories. In this paper, we compare the protection motivation theory, which describes bounded rationality, with a business-as-usual and an economic rational adaptive behavior. The inclusion of these scenarios serves to evaluate and compare the effect of different assumptions about adaptive behavior on the evolution of drought risk over time. Applied to a semi-arid case in Kenya, ADOPT is parameterized using field data collected from 250 households in the Kitui region and discussions with local decision-makers. The results show that estimations of drought risk and the need for emergency food aid can be improved using an agent-based approach: we show that ignoring individual household characteristics leads to an underestimation of food-aid needs. Moreover, we show that the bounded rational scenario is better able to reflect historic food security, poverty levels, and crop yields. Thus, we demonstrate that the reality of complex human adaptation decisions can best be described assuming bounded rational adaptive behavior; furthermore, an agent-based approach and the choice of adaptation theory matter when quantifying risk and estimating emergency aid needs.
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World globalisation drives companies to undertake international expansion with the aim of retaining or growing their businesses. When companies globalize, managers encounter new challenges in making international marketing strategy (IMS) decisions, which are influenced by perceived cultural and business distance between their home- and foreign country. Telkom Indonesia International (Telin) was formed by Telkom Indonesia (i.e. the state-owned company in the telecommunication industry in Indonesia) to engage in international business within a global market. The central question in this study is to what extent do managers’ perceived cultural and business distance between home- and foreign country influence their IMS decisions? A mixed research strategy will be employed by applying qualitative and quantitative methods concurrently. The data collection will involve interviews with CEOs and managers, alongside a web survey to 55 managers of Telkom's. Results suggest important consequences for IMS decisions and emphasizes the need for dialogue on perceptions of cultural and business characteristics of countries.
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The adaptation of urbanised areas to climate change is currently one of the key challenges in the domain of urban policy. The diversity of environmental determinants requires the formulation of individual plans dedicated to the most significant local issues. This article serves as a methodic proposition for the stage of retrieving data (with the PESTEL and the Delphi method), systemic diagnosis (evaluation of risk and susceptibility), prognosis (goal trees, goal intensity map) and the formulation of urban adaptation plans. The suggested solution complies with the Polish guidelines for establishing adaptation plans. The proposed methodological approach guarantees the participation of various groups of stakeholders in the process of working on urban adaptation plans, which is in accordance with the current tendencies to strengthen the role of public participation in spatial management. https://doi.org/10.12911/22998993/81658
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Analyzing historical decision-related data can help support actual operational decision-making processes. Decision mining can be employed for such analysis. This paper proposes the Decision Discovery Framework (DDF) designed to develop, adapt, or select a decision discovery algorithm by outlining specific guidelines for input data usage, classifier handling, and decision model representation. This framework incorporates the use of Decision Model and Notation (DMN) for enhanced comprehensibility and normalization to simplify decision tables. The framework’s efficacy was tested by adapting the C4.5 algorithm to the DM45 algorithm. The proposed adaptations include (1) the utilization of a decision log, (2) ensure an unpruned decision tree, (3) the generation DMN, and (4) normalize decision table. Future research can focus on supporting on practitioners in modeling decisions, ensuring their decision-making is compliant, and suggesting improvements to the modeled decisions. Another future research direction is to explore the ability to process unstructured data as input for the discovery of decisions.
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This paper concludes that the dynamic system of perception, knowledge and adaptation is valuable in better understanding how farmers perceive climate change and choose for specific adaptation strategies. The paper demonstrated how perceptions interact with local knowledge, what potential spaces farmers have to choose adaptation strategies from, and how they actually make decisions regarding which strategies to implement.
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There is a clear demand for a collaborative knowledge-sharing by online climate adaptation platforms that contribute to (inter)national knowledge exchange and raising awareness about climate change. Climate adaptation platforms (CAPs) can contain decision-support tools to facilitate the process of decision-making, and may include capacity building, networking, dissemination to assist planning and implementation of proven adaptation concepts such as Nature-based solutions (NBS) to mitigate floodings, drought, and heat stress. From 2014 over 6000 global climate adaptation projects have been mapped on an open source platform ClimateScan using citizen science. This chapter describes the potential of this climate adaption platform by illustrated case studies with mapped climate adaptation measures in Africa, Asia, and Europe. The case studies illustrate engagement and tangible results related to online platforms such as: the period of relevance of ClimateScan, inclusiveness and engagement of users in different stages and continents. Workshops in Indonesia illustrate the need for validation of needs from potential users before implementing CAPs. Analyzing projects in Africa showcase best management practices in water conservation and water demand management that are of interest in many other regions in the world facing drought. In Europe detailed analysis of over 3000 climate adaptation measures in relation to neighborhood typologies is inspiring urban planners and stormwater managers to design, plan, and implement climate resilient measures with more confidence. These three global examples illustrate that mapping, promoting, and sharing knowledge about implemented proven concepts is raising awareness, contribute to community-building, and accelerate climate action around the world.
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Global climate change will result in more extreme heat, drought, and rainfall. The urban environment is particularly vulnerable to these effects. Adaptation to these extreme weather conditions is difficult due to the high complexity of urban land-use patterns and stakeholder configurations. The current practice in the field of urban climate adaptation mainly revolves around the assessment of climatological risks, leaving the question where measures can be implemented under-researched. This study proposes and tests a four-step GIS-based Decision Support Model (DSM) to map the spatial opportunities for adaptation measures in public and private spaces. The DSM was applied to the city of Groningen. The findings revealed that there is a relationship between urban design, climatological risks, and opportunities for adaptation measures, with higher density neighbourhoods showing more opportunities for greening private properties and permeable pavements and lower density neighbourhoods showing opportunities for the implementation of green-blue measures in public space. The application of this DSM can aid urban planners and other stakeholders in mapping spatial opportunities for climate adaptation, that is, allow for more precise site selection for adaptation efforts and for an evaluation of adaptation efforts in different neighbourhood typologies within the urban environment.
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Currently, there is no method available that can systematically score the available ecosystem services in streets or street segments in suburban districts. In this study, different climate adaptation measures and their ecosystem services were categorized into green, blue, and grey categories and weight was given to each category based on their impact on the microclimate. This study took place in the Hillesluis district in the city of Rotterdam and the Paddepoel district in the city of Groningen. In Rotterdam, 21 streets, composed of 42 street segments, were assessed. In Groningen, 17 streets, composed of 45 street segments, were assessed. The available ecosystem services of each street segment were scored from 0–100. The scorecard method that was developed and tested during this study provided insight in the variation of available ecosystem services of streets and street segments. Individual street scores were very low in the city of Rotterdam and ranged between 3 and 50, with the average score for the street segments of 29. In Groningen, the scores were considerably higher with a range between 23 and 70, with an average score of 47 per street segment. The presence of larger green trees, front yards, and façade gardens in the green category are the most distinctive variable, while adaptation measures in the blue category were absent in both cities. The scorecard proved to be very useful in the adaptation labeling of street segments and entire streets. After assessing a neighborhood, the least adaptive streets can be identified relatively easy. Based on the score a label can be given between A+++ and G. The scorecard informs residents and decision makers about which streets are most adaptive and which streets have an adaptation potential. The method can easily be duplicated and used by local governments and community groups to have better insight in the level of climate adaptation of their street. Labels for entire streets can be used to create awareness and encourage residents to take action and expand the number of climate adaptation measures in their street.
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According to a governmental decision, all (re)constructions in Dutch cities starting by 2020 have to be climate resilient. Part of this climate resilience is also adaptation to (extreme) heat. Although urban heat, its causes, consequences, and potential adaptation measures, have been extensively studied by scientists all over the world, the understanding of this problem among practitioners is still limited. Local governments are struggling with defining the urgency and finding the right arguments for adaptation to this aspect of climate change. Also questions asked by municipality officers often differ from those asked (and answered) by scientists. How do you define “heat stress”? What are the best adaptation measures for our city? How do we know we have reached “heat resilience”? Or; Shall we just do what they do in Italy?Project Heat Resilient Cities is a cooperation of two research institutes, 13 municipalities, and a water authority in Netherlands. The aim of this project is to bring the current knowledge of urban heat adaptation to practice and to fill in the research gabs. The research focuses on clear visualizations of problematic areas, applicable heat resilient measures in Dutch context, and design guidelines leading towards more heat resilient cities. In this presentation, we will present an overview of practical tools (maps, instruments measures, visualizations, guidelines) that cities could use put heat resilience into practice.
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We summarize what we assess as the past year's most important findings within climate change research: limits to adaptation, vulnerability hotspots, new threats coming from the climate–health nexus, climate (im)mobility and security, sustainable practices for land use and finance, losses and damages, inclusive societal climate decisions and ways to overcome structural barriers to accelerate mitigation and limit global warming to below 2°C.
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