Deployment and management of environmental infrastructures, such as charging infrastructure for Electric Vehicles (EV), is a challenging task. For policy makers, it is particularly difficult to estimate the capacity of current deployed public charging infrastructure for a given EV user population. While data analysis of charging data has shown added value for monitoring EV systems, it is not valid to linearly extrapolate charging infrastructure performance when increasing population size.We developed a data-driven agent-based model that can explore future scenarios to identify non-trivial dynamics that may be caused by EV user interaction, such as competition or collaboration, and that may affect performance metrics. We validated the model by comparing EV user activity patterns in time and space.We performed stress tests on the 4 largest cities the Netherlands to explore the capacity of the existing charging network. Our results demonstrate that (i) a non-linear relation exists between system utilization and inconvenience even at the base case; (ii) from 2.5x current population, the occupancy of non-habitual charging increases at the expense of habitual users, leading to an expected decline of occupancy for habitual users; and (iii) from a ratio of 0.6 non-habitual users to habitual users competition effects intensify. For the infrastructure to which the stress test is applied, a ratio of approximately 0.6 may indicate a maximum allowed ratio that balances performance with inconvenience. For policy makers, this implies that when they see diminishing marginal performance of KPIs in their monitoring reports, they should be aware of potential exponential increase of inconvenience for EV users.
In recent years, there have been significant changes in weather patterns, mainly caused by sharp increases in temperature, increases in carbon dioxide, and fluctuations in precipitation levels, negatively impacting agricultural production. Agricultural systems are characterized by being vulnerable to the variation of biophysical and socioeconomic factors involved in the development of agricultural activities. Agent-based models (ABMs) enable the study, analysis, and management of ecosystems through their ability to represent networks and their spatial nature. In this research, an ABM is developed to evaluate the behavior and determine the vulnerability in the sugarcane agricultural system; allowing the capitalization of knowledge through characteristics such as social ability and autonomy of the modeled agents through fuzzy logic and system dynamics. The methodol-ogy used includes information networks for a dynamic assessment of agricultural risk modeled by time series, system dynamics, uncertain parameters, and experience; which are developed in three stages: vulnerability indicators, crop vulnerability, and total system vulnerability. The development of ABM, a greater impact on the environmental contingency is noted due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the exponential increase in extreme meteorological phenomena threatening the cultivation of sugarcane, making the agricultural sector more vulnerable and reducing the yield of the harvest.
On the eve of the large-scale introduction of electric vehicles, policy makers have to decide on how to organise a significant growth in charging infrastructure to meet demand. There is uncertainty about which charging deployment tactic to follow. The main issue is how many of charging stations, of which type, should be installed and where. Early roll-out has been successful in many places, but knowledge on how to plan a large-scale charging network in urban areas is missing. Little is known about return to scale effects, reciprocal effects of charger availability on sales, and the impact of fast charging or more clustered charging hubs on charging preferences of EV owners. This paper explores the effects of various roll-out strategies for charging infrastructure that facilitate the large-scale introduction of EVs, using agent-based simulation. In contrast to previously proposed models, our model is rooted in empirically observed charging patterns from EVs instead of travel patterns of fossil fuelled cars. In addition, the simulation incorporates different user types (inhabitants, visitors, taxis and shared vehicles) to model the diversity of charging behaviours in an urban environment. Different scenarios are explored along the lines of the type of charging infrastructure (level 2, clustered level 2, fast charging) and the intensity of rollout (EV to charging point ratio). The simulation predicts both the success rate of charging attempts and the additional discomfort when searching for a charging station. Results suggest that return to scale and reciprocal effects in charging infrastructure are considerable, resulting in a lower EV to charging station ratio on the longer term.
The Dutch main water systems face pressing environmental, economic and societal challenges due to climatic changes and increased human pressure. There is a growing awareness that nature-based solutions (NBS) provide cost-effective solutions that simultaneously provide environmental, social and economic benefits and help building resilience. In spite of being carefully designed and tested, many projects tend to fail along the way or never get implemented in the first place, wasting resources and undermining trust and confidence of practitioners in NBS. Why do so many projects lose momentum even after a proof of concept is delivered? Usually, failure can be attributed to a combination of eroding political will, societal opposition and economic uncertainties. While ecological and geological processes are often well understood, there is almost no understanding around societal and economic processes related to NBS. Therefore, there is an urgent need to carefully evaluate the societal, economic, and ecological impacts and to identify design principles fostering societal support and economic viability of NBS. We address these critical knowledge gaps in this research proposal, using the largest river restoration project of the Netherlands, the Border Meuse (Grensmaas), as a Living Lab. With a transdisciplinary consortium, stakeholders have a key role a recipient and provider of information, where the broader public is involved through citizen science. Our research is scientifically innovative by using mixed methods, combining novel qualitative methods (e.g. continuous participatory narrative inquiry) and quantitative methods (e.g. economic choice experiments to elicit tradeoffs and risk preferences, agent-based modeling). The ultimate aim is to create an integral learning environment (workbench) as a decision support tool for NBS. The workbench gathers data, prepares and verifies data sets, to help stakeholders (companies, government agencies, NGOs) to quantify impacts and visualize tradeoffs of decisions regarding NBS.
