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Are technology myths stalling aviation climate policy?

Emissions from aviation will continue to increase in the future, in contradiction of global climate policy objectives. Yet, airlines and airline organisations suggest that aviation will become climatically sustainable. This paper investigates this paradox by reviewing fuel-efficiency gains since the 1960s in comparison to aviation growth, and by linking these results to technology discourses, based on a two-tiered approach tracing technology-focused discourses over 20 years (1994-2013). Findings indicate that a wide range of solutions to growing emissions from aviation have been presented by industry, hyped in global media, and subsequently vanished to be replaced by new technology discourses. Redundant discourses often linger in the public domain, where they continue to be associated with industry aspirations of 'sustainable aviation' and 'zero-emission flight'. The paper highlights and discusses a number of technology discourses that constitute 'technology myths', and the role these 'myths' may be playing in the enduring but flawed promise of sustainable aviation. We conclude that technology myths require policy-makers to interpret and take into account technical uncertainty, which may result in inaction that continues to delay much needed progress in climate policy for aviation.

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An investigation of bird strike cases in the aviation sector with a novel approach within the context of the principal-agent phenomenon

Bird strikes, a risk factor in the aviation industry, are a common problem in certain states of the USA, while they are extremely rare in other states. Similarly, the seasonal distribution of bird strikes is not proportional. This situation poses an unfair situation in the aviation insurance of airline companies in terms of routes taken. The current study, detecting a literature gap related to the principal-agent problem within the aviation sector, evaluates the possible differences in aviation companies' insurance costs, assuming bird strikes are spatially and temporally analyzed in the US, and airline companies are provided with complete information regarding bird-strikes. In this research, QGIS software served in spatial model mappings. In terms of the threshold value, the study results show that making bird-strike insurance aircraft in twenty-one states which were below the threshold value increased the aviation costs of these airline companies, while in the remaining twenty-nine states, non-insurance raised the cost. In this context, as of 2022, it has been determined that not paying an extra premium for bird strikes in twenty-one states below the threshold value will create efficiency, while expending an above-average insurance premium in twenty-nine states and the District of Columbia above the threshold value will create efficiency. The research seeks to answer the following question: Is it fair for airlines operating on routes with low or high bird strike risks to pay the same amount of insurance cost?

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An investigation of bird strike cases in the aviation sector with a novel approach within the context of the principal-agent phenomenon

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L’aviation, le tourisme et la décarbonation dans les décennies à venir : impasses, solutions et incertitudes.

While tourism and air transport are recovering from the impacts of the Covid pandemic, it seems timely to draw a synthetic view of future stakes combining the following topics: the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for tourism, regarding which recent work has improved their understanding; the climatic impact of aviation, almost 60% of which is due to non-CO 2 emissions; alternative fuels (biofuels, E-fuels, hydrogen) and engine designs (fuel cells...) which are complex and controversial issues, and whose potentials should be assessed regarding their timing, environmental impacts, and their ability to meet long distance travel requirements. This paper analyses the extent to which the new options regarding fuels and engines can help decarbonize tourism and air transport. The answer is that they can partly contribute but do not render obsolete previous work on substitutions between types of tourism (short versus long distance...), between transport modes (ground transport versus air), length of stay, etc. Following this step, the paper deals with the position of aviation players and the type of arguments they use. We conclude on the necessity to make strategic choices among the options to avoid wasting investments.

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Aviation Data Analytics in MRO Operations: Prospects and Pitfalls

As every new generation of civil aircraft creates more on-wing data and fleets gradually become more connected with the ground, an increased number of opportunities can be identified for more effective Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) operations. Data are becoming a valuable asset for aircraft operators. Sensors measure and record thousands of parameters in increased sampling rates. However, data do not serve any purpose per se. It is the analysis that unleashes their value. Data analytics methods can be simple, making use of visualizations, or more complex, with the use of sophisticated statistics and Artificial Intelligence algorithms. Every problem needs to be approached with the most suitable and less complex method. In MRO operations, two major categories of on-wing data analytics problems can be identified. The first one requires the identification of patterns, which enable the classification and optimization of different maintenance and overhaul processes. The second category of problems requires the identification of rare events, such as the unexpected failure of parts. This cluster of problems relies on the detection of meaningful outliers in large data sets. Different Machine Learning methods can be suggested here, such as Isolation Forest and Logistic Regression. In general, the use of data analytics for maintenance or failure prediction is a scientific field with a great potentiality. Due to its complex nature, the opportunities for aviation Data Analytics in MRO operations are numerous. As MRO services focus increasingly in long term contracts, maintenance organizations with the right forecasting methods will have an advantage. Data accessibility and data quality are two key-factors. At the same time, numerous technical developments related to data transfer and data processing can be promising for the future.

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Aviation Data Analytics in MRO Operations: Prospects and Pitfalls

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Models of Automation surprise

Automation surprises in aviation continue to be a significant safety concern and the community’s search for effective strategies to mitigate them are ongoing. The literature has offered two fundamentally divergent directions, based on different ideas about the nature of cognition and collaboration with automation. In this paper, we report the results of a field study that empirically compared and contrasted two models of automation surprises: a normative individual-cognition model and a sensemaking model based on distributed cognition. Our data prove a good fit for the sense-making model. This finding is relevant for aviation safety, since our understanding of the cognitive processes that govern human interaction with automation drive what we need to do to reduce the frequency of automation-induced events.

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Combining soft system methodology and pareto analysis in safety management performance assessment

Although reengineering is strategically advantageous fororganisations in order to keep functional and sustainable, safety must remain apriority and respective efforts need to be maintained. This paper suggeststhe combination of soft system methodology (SSM) and Pareto analysison the scope of safety management performance evaluation, and presents theresults of a survey, which was conducted in order to assess the effectiveness,efficacy and ethicality of the individual components of an organisation’s safetyprogram. The research employed quantitative and qualitative data and ensureda broad representation of functional managers and safety professionals, whocollectively hold the responsibility for planning, implementing and monitoringsafety practices. The results showed that SSM can support the assessment ofsafety management performance by revealing weaknesses of safety initiatives,and Pareto analysis can underwrite the prioritisation of the remedies required.The specific methodology might be adapted by any organisation that requires adeep evaluation of its safety management performance, seeks to uncover themechanisms that affect such performance, and, under limited resources, needsto focus on the most influential deficiencies.

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Combining soft system methodology and pareto analysis in safety management performance assessment

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Engineering safety recommendations

Taking into account the lack of uniform guidelines for the design and classification of safety recommendations, a relevant framework was developed according to academic and professional literature. The framework includes nine design criteria for recommendations, it incorporates classifications of their scope and expected effectiveness, and it was used to perform a questionnaire survey across aviation professionals involved in the generation of safety recommendations. The goal of the survey was to capture (1) whether practitioners are knowledgeable about the design criteria, (2) the degree to which they apply those criteria along with corresponding reasons, (3) perceptions of the expected effectiveness of types of controls introduced through recommendations, (4) the frequency of generating each control type and respective explanations, and (5) the extent to which practitioners focus on each of the categories of recommendations’ scope and the relevant reasons. Overall, the results showed: an adequate level of knowledge of the design criteria; a strong positive association of the knowledge on a particular criterion with the degree of its implementation; a variety of frequencies the recommendations are addressed to each of the scope areas; a reverse order of perception of the expected effectiveness of control types compared to the literature suggestions. A thematic analysis revealed a broad spectrum of reasons about the degree to which the design criteria are applied, and the extent to which the various types of recommendations are generated. The results of the survey can be exploited by the aviation sector to steer its relevant education and training efforts and assess the need for influencing the direction safety recommendations are addressed. Similar research is suggested to be conducted by organizations and regional and international agencies of any industry sector by ensuring a larger sample.

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Design, scope and focus of safety recommendations

Literature and industry standards do not mention inclusive guidelines to generate safety recommendations. Following a literature review, we suggest nine design criteria as well as the classification of safety recommendations according to their scope (i.e. organisational context, stakeholders addressed and degree of change) and their focus, the latter corresponding to the type of risk barrier introduced. The design and classification criteria were applied to 625 recommendations published by four aviation investigation agencies. The analysis results suggested sufficient implementation of most of the design criteria. Concerning their scope, the findings showed an emphasis on processes and structures (i.e. lower organisational contexts), adaptations that correspond to medium degree of changes, and local stakeholders. Regarding the focus of the recommendations, non-technical barriers that rely mostly on employees’ interpretation were introduced by the vast majority of safety recommendations. Also, statistically significant differences were detected across investigation authorities and time periods. This study demonstrated how the application of the suggested design and classification frameworks could reveal valuable information about the quality, scope and focus of recommendations. Especially the design criteria could function as a starting point towards the introduction of a common standard to be used at local, national and international levels.

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Design, scope and focus of safety recommendations

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Differences in risk perception factors and behaviours amongst and within professionals and trainees in the aviation engineering domain

In the aviation sector, the variability in the appreciation of safety risk perception factors and responses to risk behaviours has not been sufficiently studied for engineers and technicians. Through a questionnaire survey, this study investigated differences amongst professionals and trainees across eleven risk perception factors and five indicative risk behaviour scenarios. The findings indicated significant differences between the two groups in four factors and three scenarios as well as within groups. Moreover, age, years of work and study and educational level were other factors accounting for such differences within each group of professionals and trainees. The results showing these significant differences are aligned with relevant research about pilots and indicate that the appreciation of risk perception factors by aviation engineers and the development of their risk behaviours deserves more attention. Our findings cannot be generalised due to the small sample and its distribution across the demographic variables. However, the results of this study suggest the need tailoring risk communication and training to address the different degrees to which influences of risk perception factors are comprehended, and risk behaviours emerge in aviation engineering trainees and professionals. Further research could focus on the development of a respective uniform framework and tool for the specific workforce group and could administer surveys to more extensive and more representative samples by including open-ended questions and broader social, organisational and systemic factors.

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