In recent years, there have been significant changes in weather patterns, mainly caused by sharp increases in temperature, increases in carbon dioxide, and fluctuations in precipitation levels, negatively impacting agricultural production. Agricultural systems are characterized by being vulnerable to the variation of biophysical and socioeconomic factors involved in the development of agricultural activities. Agent-based models (ABMs) enable the study, analysis, and management of ecosystems through their ability to represent networks and their spatial nature. In this research, an ABM is developed to evaluate the behavior and determine the vulnerability in the sugarcane agricultural system; allowing the capitalization of knowledge through characteristics such as social ability and autonomy of the modeled agents through fuzzy logic and system dynamics. The methodol-ogy used includes information networks for a dynamic assessment of agricultural risk modeled by time series, system dynamics, uncertain parameters, and experience; which are developed in three stages: vulnerability indicators, crop vulnerability, and total system vulnerability. The development of ABM, a greater impact on the environmental contingency is noted due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the exponential increase in extreme meteorological phenomena threatening the cultivation of sugarcane, making the agricultural sector more vulnerable and reducing the yield of the harvest.
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Adopted on the fifteenth anniversary of resolution 1325, Security Council resolution 2242 has recognized for the first time the substantial link between climate change and the “Women, Peace and Security” (WPS) framework. Despite this landmark resolution, the intersections of environmental factors, conflict and violence against women remain largely absent from the Security Council's WPS agenda. Competition over natural resources is generally understood as a driver of conflict. The risk of insecurity and conflict are further increased by environmental degradation and climate change. It is therefore clear that the environment and natural resources must be integrated into the WPS agenda. This should necessarily include a discussion of indigenous rights to land and the gender-related dimensions of environmental factors. Indigenous women are disproportionately affected by environmental degradation, caused by resource extraction and increasingly compounded by climatic changes. This in turn exacerbates other vulnerabilities, including sexual and gender-based violence and other forms of marginalization. This article argues, by reference to the situation in West Papua, that unfettered resource extraction not only amplifies vulnerabilities and exacerbates preexisting inequalities stemming from colonial times, it also gives rise to gendered consequences flowing from the damage wreaked on the natural environment and thus poses a danger to international peace and security. As such, the Security Council's failure to recognize the continuous struggle of women in indigenous and rural communities against extractive economies and climate change impact as a security risk forms a serious lacuna within its WPS agenda. Originally published by Oxford University Press in Global Studies Quarterly, Volume 1, Issue 3, September 2021, ksab018, https://doi.org/10.1093/isagsq/ksab018
MULTIFILE
Both climate change and human activity are the important drivers that can change hydrological cycle routs and affect the features of hydrological drought in river basins. The current study selects the Zayandeh Rud river Basin as a case study region in which to evaluate the influences of climate alteration and human activity on meteorological and hydrological drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) on different time scales. The generated local climatic data of future years (2006–2040), (2041–2075) and (2076–2100) under the severest scenario (RCP 8.5) from the CMIP5 climate model are selected and used for the hydrology model and water allocation model of WEAP to construct hydrological drought which also consider human activities. The results indicate that significant meteorological drought is expected to occur in the winter and spring months of January to June. However, the driest month for hydrological drought is in the summer and autumn (July to December) (e.g. no changes in seasonality of droughts compared to historic period). It is concluded that, in the results of this work, the human influences on projected hydrological drought have been outlined; they had been missed in many projections for future hydrological drought. However, this study confirms the previous study (Bierkens et al. 2012) which mentioned that human influences can account for future hydrological drought in areas of Asia, the Middle East and the Mediterranean. The results attained in this study are beneficial for examining how hydrological drought characterizations respond to climate alteration and human activity on several time scales, thereby providing scientific information for drought predicting and water resources management over various time scales under non-stationary circumstances.
DOCUMENT
The Dutch main water systems face pressing environmental, economic and societal challenges due to climatic changes and increased human pressure. There is a growing awareness that nature-based solutions (NBS) provide cost-effective solutions that simultaneously provide environmental, social and economic benefits and help building resilience. In spite of being carefully designed and tested, many projects tend to fail along the way or never get implemented in the first place, wasting resources and undermining trust and confidence of practitioners in NBS. Why do so many projects lose momentum even after a proof of concept is delivered? Usually, failure can be attributed to a combination of eroding political will, societal opposition and economic uncertainties. While ecological and geological processes are often well understood, there is almost no understanding around societal and economic processes related to NBS. Therefore, there is an urgent need to carefully evaluate the societal, economic, and ecological impacts and to identify design principles fostering societal support and economic viability of NBS. We address these critical knowledge gaps in this research proposal, using the largest river restoration project of the Netherlands, the Border Meuse (Grensmaas), as a Living Lab. With a transdisciplinary consortium, stakeholders have a key role a recipient and provider of information, where the broader public is involved through citizen science. Our research is scientifically innovative by using mixed methods, combining novel qualitative methods (e.g. continuous participatory narrative inquiry) and quantitative methods (e.g. economic choice experiments to elicit tradeoffs and risk preferences, agent-based modeling). The ultimate aim is to create an integral learning environment (workbench) as a decision support tool for NBS. The workbench gathers data, prepares and verifies data sets, to help stakeholders (companies, government agencies, NGOs) to quantify impacts and visualize tradeoffs of decisions regarding NBS.
INXCES will use and enhance innovative 3D terrain analysis and visualization technology coupled with state-of-the-art satellite remote sensing to develop cost-effective risk assessment tools for urban flooding, aquifer recharge, ground stability and subsidence. INXCES will develop quick scan tools that will help decision makers and other actors to improve the understanding of urban and peri-urban terrains and identify options for cost effective implementation of water management solutions that reduce the negative impacts of extreme events, maximize beneficial uses of rainwater and stormwater for small to intermediate events and provide long-term resilience in light of future climate changes. The INXCES approach optimizes the multiple benefits of urban ecosystems, thereby stimulating widespread implementation of nature-based solutions on the urban catchment scale.INXCES will develop new innovative technological methods for risk assessment and mitigation of extreme hydroclimatic events and optimization of urban water-dependent ecosystem services at the catchment level, for a spectrum of rainfall events. It is widely acknowledged that extreme events such as floods and droughts are an increasing challenge, particularly in urban areas. The frequency and intensity of floods and droughts pose challenges for economic and social development, negatively affecting the quality of life of urban populations. Prevention and mitigation of the consequences of hydroclimatic extreme events are dependent on the time scale. Floods are typically a consequence of intense rainfall events with short duration. In relation to prolonged droughts however, a much slower timescale needs to be considered, connected to groundwater level reductions, desiccation and negative consequences for growing conditions and potential ground – and building stability.INXCES will take a holistic spatial and temporal approach to the urban water balance at a catchment scale and perform technical-scientific research to assess, mitigate and build resilience in cities against extreme hydroclimatic events with nature-based solutions.INXCES will use and enhance innovative 3D terrain analysis and visualization technology coupled with state-of-the-art satellite remote sensing to develop cost-effective risk assessment tools for urban flooding, aquifer recharge, ground stability and subsidence. INXCES will develop quick scan tools that will help decision makers and other actors to improve the understanding of urban and peri-urban terrains and identify options for cost effective implementation of water management solutions that reduce the negative impacts of extreme events, maximize beneficial uses of rainwater and stormwater for small to intermediate events and provide long-term resilience in light of future climate changes. The INXCES approach optimizes the multiple benefits of urban ecosystems, thereby stimulating widespread implementation of nature-based solutions on the urban catchment scale.
