A large body of research has described the influence of context information on forensic decision-making. In this study, we examined the effect of context information on the search for and selection of traces by students (N = 36) and crime scene investigators (N = 58). Participants investigated an ambiguous mock crime scene and received prior information indicating suicide, a violent death or no information. Participants described their impression of the scene and wrote down which traces they wanted to secure. Results showed that con- text information impacted first impression of the scene and crime scene behavior, namely number of traces secured. Participants in the murder condition secured most traces. Furthermore, the students secured more crime-related traces. Students were more confident in their first impres- sion. This study does not indicate that experts outperform novices. We therefore argue for proper training on cognitive processes as an integral part of all forensic education.
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Valuation judgement bias has been a research topic for several years due to its proclaimed effect on valuation accuracy. However, little is known on the emphasis of literature on judgement bias, with regard to, for instance, research methodologies, research context and robustness of research evidence. A synthesis of available research will establish consistency in the current knowledge base on valuer judgement, identify future research opportunities and support decision-making policy by educational and regulatory stakeholders how to cope with judgement bias. This article therefore, provides a systematic review of empirical research on real estate valuer judgement over the last 30 years. Based on a number of inclusion and exclusion criteria, we have systematically analysed 32 relevant papers on valuation judgement bias. Although we find some consistency in evidence, we also find the underlying research to be biased; the methodology adopted is dominated by a quantitative approach; research context is skewed by timing and origination; and research evidence seems fragmented and needs replication. In order to obtain a deeper understanding of valuation judgement processes and thus extend the current knowledge base, we advocate more use of qualitative research methods and scholars to adopt an interpretative paradigm when studying judgement behaviour.
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Currently, promising new tools are under development that will enable crime scene investigators to analyze fingerprints or DNA-traces at the crime scene. While these technologies could help to find a perpetrator early in the investigation, they may also strengthen confirmation bias when an incorrect scenario directs the investigation this early. In this study, 40 experienced Crime scene investigators (CSIs) investigated a mock crime scene to study the influence of rapid identification technologies on the investigation. This initial study shows that receiving identification information during the investigation results in more accurate scenarios. CSIs in general are not as much reconstructing the event that took place, but rather have a “who done it routine.” Their focus is on finding perpetrator traces with the risk of missing important information at the start of the investigation. Furthermore, identification information was mostly integrated in their final scenarios when the results of the analysis matched their expectations. CSIs have the tendency to look for confirmation, but the technology has no influence on this tendency. CSIs should be made aware of the risks of this strategy as important offender information could be missed or innocent people could be wrongfully accused.
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In this paper, we report on the initial results of an explorative study that aims to investigate the occurrence of cognitive biases when designers use generative AI in the ideation phase of a creative design process. When observing current AI models utilised as creative design tools, potential negative impacts on creativity can be identified, namely deepening already existing cognitive biases but also introducing new ones that might not have been present before. Within our study, we analysed the emergence of several cognitive biases and the possible appearance of a negative synergy when designers use generative AI tools in a creative ideation process. Additionally, we identified a new potential bias that emerges from interacting with AI tools, namely prompt bias.
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With the proliferation of misinformation on the web, automatic misinformation detection methods are becoming an increasingly important subject of study. Large language models have produced the best results among content-based methods, which rely on the text of the article rather than the metadata or network features. However, finetuning such a model requires significant training data, which has led to the automatic creation of large-scale misinformation detection datasets. In these datasets, articles are not labelled directly. Rather, each news site is labelled for reliability by an established fact-checking organisation and every article is subsequently assigned the corresponding label based on the reliability score of the news source in question. A recent paper has explored the biases present in one such dataset, NELA-GT-2018, and shown that the models are at least partly learning the stylistic and other features of different news sources rather than the features of unreliable news. We confirm a part of their findings. Apart from studying the characteristics and potential biases of the datasets, we also find it important to examine in what way the model architecture influences the results. We therefore explore which text features or combinations of features are learned by models based on contextual word embeddings as opposed to basic bag-of-words models. To elucidate this, we perform extensive error analysis aided by the SHAP post-hoc explanation technique on a debiased portion of the dataset. We validate the explanation technique on our inherently interpretable baseline model.
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This thesis provides an examination of judgement autonomy of Dutch commercial real estate valuers in relation to client orientation. The valuation of commercial real estate such as offices or retail properties requires in-depth analysis due to its uniqueness by location, building type and usage details. Essentially, a register-valuer is qualified and instructed to assess a property value to one’s best cognitive effort and inform others of this outcome by means of a valuation report. In the Netherlands, concerns over independence risks and client-related judgement risks of valuers have been raised by regulative authorities as the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). A significant part of these concerns followed the 2008 financial crisis, which appeared to be at least partially driven by unreliable and incomparable valuations of Dutch commercial real estate (AFM, 2014; DNB, 2012; 2015). Among other things, these concerns led to the instigation of the Nederlands Register Vastgoed Taxateurs (NRVT) in 2015. NRVT is a new Dutch central register of valuation practitioners set up in order to improve self-regulation, quality control and compliance of valuation practitioners. Currently, the chamber for commercial real estate valuation holds about 2,000 commercial valuation registrations (NRVT, 2020). The introduction of NRVT, and other measures taken, reflect an instrumental view towards enhancing professionalism of Dutch valuers. This view is based on a systematic orientation to professional conduct in which good practice is primarily objectively determined (Van Ewijk, 2019). However, Wassink and Bakker (2016) point out that individuals make personal choices in order to deal with work complexity. Insight into and reflection on individual choices is part of what is referred to as normative aspects of professionalisation: what norms prevail in individual judgement and decision-making and why (Van Ewijk, 2019). In this regard, insight into judgement reasoning of valuation practitioners may contribute to normative levels of professional development of valuers. The need for such is expressed through community concerns over how individual judgement autonomy may become subdued due to instrumental-driven developments taking place in the sector. The combination of authoritative concerns over professional quality in the Netherlands and lack of (scientific) insight on how client influence affects judgement in valuation practice poses a problem: How may practitioners address client-related judgement bias risks and improve valuation accuracy from this viewpoint, if little is known on how such risks may occur in daily practice? The seemingly scarce scientific insights available in this regard in the Netherlands may also prevent educational programs to adequately address valuer independence and objectivity risks in relevant training programs. In order to address this knowledge gap, the present PhD research examines the following research problem: 169 Summary “How does client orientation affect professional judgement autonomy of commercial real estate valuers in the Netherlands?” The term ‘client orientation’ should be broadly interpreted and may refer to valuers’ perception, understanding and meaning given to alleged, actual or anticipated client-related aspects. Information on such client aspects is not required for the performance of valuation instructions. It should also be noted that this research examines the context of how client orientation may affect valuer judgement reasoning patterns during work practice, yet not its effect in terms of decision on final value opinion.
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In two covariation bias experiments, we investigated whether socially anxious women overestimate the contingency between social events and signs of rejection and/or to underestimate the contingency between social events and approval. Participants were exposed to descriptions of ambiguous or negative social events, situations involving animals, and nature scenes that were randomly paired with disgusting, happy, and neutral faces. Socially anxious participants reported enhanced belongingness between ambiguous events and signs of rejection, together with reduced belongingness between negative events and approval. This contributes to previous findings suggesting that socially anxious individuals suffer from fear-confirming interpretive biases. There was no evidence for enhanced negative or reduced positive covariation bias in socially anxious individuals.
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Purpose – Information verification is an important factor in commercial valuation practice.Valuers use their professional autonomy to decide on the level of verification required, thereby creating an opportunity for client-related judgement bias in valuation. The purpose of this paper is to assess the manifestation of client attachment risks in information verification. Design/methodology/approach – A case-based questionnaire was used to retrieve data from 290 commercial valuation professionals in the Netherlands, providing a 15 per cent response rate of the Dutch commercial valuation population. Descriptive and inferential statistics have been used to test research hypotheses involving relations between information verification and professional features that may indicate client attachment such as an executive job level and brokerage experience. Findings – The results reveal that valuers acting at partner level within their organisation obtain lower scores on information verification compared to lower-ranked valuers. Also, brokerage experience correlates negatively to information verification of valuation professionals. Both findings have statistical significance. Research limitations/implications – The results reflect valuers’ reasoning behaviour rather than actual behaviour. Replication of findings through experimental design will contribute to research validity. Practical implications – Maintaining close client contact in a competitive environment is important for business continuity yet may foster client attachment.The associated downside risks in valuation practice call for higher awareness of (subconscious) client influence and the development of attitudinal scepticism in valuer training programmes. Originality/value – This paper is one of the few that explore possible sources of valuer judgement bias by relating client-friendly valuer features to a key area of valuation i.e. information verification.
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We see what we expect to see. For example, If we 're interested in a certain type of car, "suddenly" we see many more of these cars than before. This bias confirms the correctness of our interest, hence it 's called confirmation bias. In itself this isn 't a problem, in looking through our “pink glasses" we see our version of reality confirmed more firmly than it actually is. It may help us to feel confident about ourselves and our choices. However, also journalists and (other) academics (professionals and scientists) are only human. Things can go wrong there.
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This is the last of a series of 3 columns on uncertainty. A response to uncertainty can be radicalization, It is argued that confirmation bias plays a role in this initial “radicalization”: the tendency to prefer information that confirms one's belief as “facts” to contradictory information (“fake news”). People who have just switched to something new, vegetarianism for example, or who have just started a new study, can be very fanatical at first and want to lecture everyone. But no one has the energy to compete again and again on the cutting edge of the “game” (infatuation, new beliefs, etc.), so luckily the nuance returns with time. After the radical "infatuation" (outshout/ignore uncertainty), uncertainty regains its place and space is once again created for the human dimension, for solidarity and nuance. The couple in love who give themselves completely to each other eventually regains an eye for the rest of the world. I have been a vegetarian for over 50 years, so I never really talk about that anymore. Bias fades with time.
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