Citizens regularly search the Web to make informed decisions on daily life questions, like online purchases, but how they reason with the results is unknown. This reasoning involves engaging with data in ways that require statistical literacy, which is crucial for navigating contemporary data. However, many adults struggle to critically evaluate and interpret such data and make data-informed decisions. Existing literature provides limited insight into how citizens engage with web-sourced information. We investigated: How do adults reason statistically with web-search results to answer daily life questions? In this case study, we observed and interviewed three vocationally educated adults searching for products or mortgages. Unlike data producers, consumers handle pre-existing, often ambiguous data with unclear populations and no single dataset. Participants encountered unstructured (web links) and structured data (prices). We analysed their reasoning and the process of preparing data, which is part of data-ing. Key data-ing actions included judging relevance and trustworthiness of the data and using proxy variables when relevant data were missing (e.g., price for product quality). Participants’ statistical reasoning was mainly informal. For example, they reasoned about association but did not calculate a measure of it, nor assess underlying distributions. This study theoretically contributes to understanding data-ing and why contemporary data may necessitate updating the investigative cycle. As current education focuses mainly on producers’ tasks, we advocate including consumers’ tasks by using authentic contexts (e.g., music, environment, deferred payment) to promote data exploration, informal statistical reasoning, and critical web-search skills—including selecting and filtering information, identifying bias, and evaluating sources.
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Poster presented at the 14th Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education, Free University of Bozen-Bolsano, Italy.
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Abstract Background: COVID-19 was first identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China. The virus quickly spread and was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020. After infection, symptoms such as fever, a (dry) cough, nasal congestion, and fatigue can develop. In some cases, the virus causes severe complications such as pneumonia and dyspnea and could result in death. The virus also spread rapidly in the Netherlands, a small and densely populated country with an aging population. Health care in the Netherlands is of a high standard, but there were nevertheless problems with hospital capacity, such as the number of available beds and staff. There were also regions and municipalities that were hit harder than others. In the Netherlands, there are important data sources available for daily COVID-19 numbers and information about municipalities. Objective: We aimed to predict the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands, using a data set with the properties of 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and advanced modeling techniques. Methods: We collected relevant static data per municipality from data sources that were available in the Dutch public domain and merged these data with the dynamic daily number of infections from January 1, 2020, to May 9, 2021, resulting in a data set with 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and variables grouped into 20 topics. The modeling techniques random forest and multiple fractional polynomials were used to construct a prediction model for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands. Results: The final prediction model had an R2 of 0.63. Important properties for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality in the Netherlands were exposure to particulate matter with diameters <10 μm (PM10) in the air, the percentage of Labour party voters, and the number of children in a household. Conclusions: Data about municipality properties in relation to the cumulative number of confirmed infections in a municipality in the Netherlands can give insight into the most important properties of a municipality for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality. This insight can provide policy makers with tools to cope with COVID-19 and may also be of value in the event of a future pandemic, so that municipalities are better prepared.
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