This overview article for the special issue on ‘Desirable Transport Futures’ sets out with a brief introduction of the current development of the global transport system, suggesting that it remains unclear whether transport systems are heading towards desirable change. This desirability is defined as a reduction in the system's negative externalities, including accidents, congestion, pollutants and/or noise, while retaining its functionality. There is evidence that transport externalities continue to grow with an increasingly mobile and growing global population. Against this background, the article discusses what may constitute more desirable transport futures, as well as the barriers that have to be overcome to move towards such futures. The article concludes that transport governance will be essential to far-reaching change, and that greater focus has to be placed on individual and societal socio-psychological perspectives shaping mobility consumption. Nine papers contained in this special issue provide in-depth analyses of transport systems, as well as insight into how these may be changed in more systemic ways. A concluding research agenda is offered that outlines a number of innovative approaches researchers may pursue as part of further efforts to engender desirable transport futures.
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The challenge of mitigating climate change is critical to desirable tourism transportation futures, although to date relatively little attention has been paid to this aspect of sustainable tourism. This introductory article to the special issues on ‘Desirable Tourism Transport Futures’ explores approaches to transitioning the tourism sector to a sustainable emissions path. It starts by describing an undesirable tourism transport future associated with a business-as-usual scenario, which will inevitably cause the climate mitigation goals outlined in the Paris Climate Accord to soon become unattainable. We then outline a scenario for a climatically desirable future, and its social and economic implications. It is important that desirable tourism transport futures are critically considered in terms of both spatial and temporal scale. The scenarios that inform this editorial provide some insights at the long-term macro-scale. These scenarios are associated with desirable and undesirable elements that will no doubt continue to be the subject of much debate and contestation. While these scenarios will represent both opportunities and threats to the full spectrum of tourism industry stakeholders, they should also inform manifold avenues of future research at a critical moment in the evolution of tourism transportation and the pursuit of the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
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De dissertatie "Probing Futures, Acting Today" van Caroline Maessen onderzoekt hoe organisaties alternatieve toekomsten kunnen verbeelden om dagelijkse toekomstvormende praktijken te veranderen teneinde complexe maatschappelijke uitdagingen aan te pakken. Organisaties hebben de neiging door lineair denken hun verbeeldingsvermogen te beperken tot conventionele toekomsten, wat effectieve reacties op problemen zoals klimaatverandering en sociale ongelijkheid belemmert. Het gevolg is dat na de zoveelste heisessie voor visieontwikkeling, er nog steeds niets fundamenteel verandert. Hoe de toekomst zich ontvouwt, tegen de achtergrond van maatschappelijke complexe problemen, gaat vaak voorbij onze collectieve verbeeldingskracht. Organisaties hebben moeite om zich te verbinden met onconventionele toekomsten en acties in het heden daarop af te stemmen. Voor betekenisvolle verandering moeten organisaties navigeren tussen de aantrekkingskracht van inspirerende onconventionele toekomsten en de behoefte aan stabiliteit en controle. Maessen heeft in twee (semi) publieke organisaties onderzocht waarom dit zo lastig is en hoe organisaties daarin ondersteund kunnen worden.
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In the last month, the Visual Methodologies Collective participated in Regenerative Futures, a month-long design challenge to envision what a more desirable future could look like. Launched by SPACE10, a research and design lab based in Copenhagen, the call invited to use different AI generative models to develop a vision of the future home, community, or city.The call invited to reflect on different speculative briefs: resilient futures (How will future communities co-exist with non-human species? And how might the design of our homes and communities nurture surrounding ecosystems?), symbiotic futures (As we look to the future, how can we design homes as spaces of refuge and resilience? How will they flex to sudden climatic changes, while being conscious of the land and ecology around them?) collective futures (What would a self-sustaining city look like? How can we adapt and evolve existing structures and streets to better support collective living?)
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As the Arctic undergoes unprecedented environmental and climate transformations, an urgent call for inclusive governance and intergenerational leadership echoes across the circumpolar region. In January 2024, 29 Emerging Leaders from the Circumpolar Arctic and Subarctic gathered in Northern Norway ahead of the 2024 Arctic Frontiers Conference. This diverse group, with global identities and multi-disciplinary backgrounds spanning science, policy, business, geopolitics, and law, brought together experiences that inspired this paper. We highlight the unique perspectives offered by younger generations and leaders to advocate for changes across a spectrum of critical Arctic issues. Our voices must be present in the decision-making which shapes our future, yet we observe some politicians, diplomats, legal, and business officials engaging in protracted discourse overlooking the urgent realities faced by those most directly impacted.We address the concept of “youthwashing” and offer a critique, as well as actionable recommendations, for fostering inclusive decision-making. We explore the role of youth leadership in Arctic governance across various disciplines and how diverse perspectives are required to better shape Arctic futures. Our concerns encompass the sustainable management of the Arctic’s natural resources, respect and protection of Indigenous rights and Traditional Knowledge, and developing solutions rooted in sustainability, survivance, and justice. As Emerging Leaders, we aspire to create liveable futures for generations to come, challenging the present trajectory set by current senior leadership. In turn, we ensure that while the Arctic is undergoing significant change, it develops in a framework respectful of all generations, ultimately rooted in justice for all Arctic peoples.
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Paper submitted and accepted by World Future Review.
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This essay focuses on the aspirations of young people, which we take to be a critical drive to their political and social commitments. As reflected in a wealth of social scientific research on educational and occupational aspirations of young people, the formulation of a desirable future is an important step in formal education and one’s preparation to enter the labour market. Yet, aspirations also matter in other spheres of social life. For example, young people may have aspirations that relate to the consumption of goods. The prospect of having a high purchasing power happens to impact school motivation. Additionally, active political participation may reflect the aspirations of some citizens with regards to a desirable future. Nowadays, aiming at achieving happiness is largely regarded as a universal, if not a basic right, applying to anyone, regardless of culture, ethnicity, social class, gender, age or sexual preference. However, young people obviously don’t all have the same aspirations. How do aspirations arise? What do we know about what shapes the aspirations of young Europeans? What makes young people capable of aspiration/what enables the aspiration of young people?
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This overview paper examines three areas crucial to understanding why, despite clear scientific evidence for the growing environmental impacts of tourism transport, there is large-scale inertia in structural transitions and a lack of political will to enact meaningful sustainable mobility policies. These include the importance of addressing socio-technical factors, barriers posed by “technology myths” and the need to overcome “transport taboos” in policy-making. The paper seeks pathways to sustainable mobility by bridging the science–policy gap between academic research and researchers, and policy-makers and practitioners. It introduces key papers presented at the Freiburg 2014 workshop, covering the case for researcher engagement using advocacy and participatory approaches, the role of universities in creating their own social mobility policies, the power of social mechanisms encouraging long-haul travel, issues in consumer responsibility development, industry self-regulation and the operation of realpolitik decision-making and implementation inside formal and informal destination-based mobility partnerships. Overall, the paper argues that governments and the tourism and transport industries must take a more cautious approach to the technological optimism that fosters policy inertia, and that policy-makers must take a more open approach to implementing sustainable transport policies. A research agenda for desirable transport futures is suggested.
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At this moment, charging your electric vehicle is common good, however smart charging is still a novelty in the developing phase with many unknowns. A smart charging system monitors, manages and restricts the charging process to optimize energy consumption. The need for, and advantages of smart charging electric vehicles are clear cut from the perspective of the government, energy suppliers and sustainability goals. But what about the advantages and disadvantages for the people who drive electric cars? What opportunities are there to support the goals of the user to make smart charging desirable for them? By means of qualitative Co-design methods the underlying motives of early adaptors for joining a smart charging service were uncovered. This was done by first sensitizing the user about their current and past encounters with smart charging to make them more aware of their everyday experiences. This was followed by another generative method, journey mapping and in-depth interviews to uncover the core values that drove them to participate in a smart charging system. Finally, during two co-design sessions, the participants formed groups in which they were challenged to design the future of smart charging guided by their core values. The three main findings are as follows. Firstly, participants are looking for ways to make their sustainable behaviour visible and measurable for themselves. For example, the money they saved by using the smart charging system was often used as a scoreboard, more than it was about theactual money. Secondly, they were more willing to participate in smart charging and discharging (sending energy from their vehicle back to the grid) if it had a direct positive effect on someone close to them. For example, a retiree stated that he was more than willing to share the energy of his car with a neighbouring family in which both young parents work, making them unable to charge their vehicles at times when renewable energy is available in abundance. The third and last finding is interrelated with this, it is about setting the right example. The early adopters want to show people close to them that they are making an effort to do the right thing. This is known as the law of proximity and is well illustrated by a participant that bought a second-hand, first-generation Nissan Leaf with a range of just 80 km in the summer and even less in winter. It isn’t about buying the best or most convenient car but about showing the children that sometimes it takes effort to do the right thing. These results suggest that there are clear opportunities for suppliers of smart EV charging services to make it more desirable for users, with other incentives than the now commonly used method of saving money. The main takeaway is that early adopters have a desire for their sustainable behaviour to be more visible and tangible for themselves and their social environment. The results have been translated into preliminary design proposals in which the law of proximity is applied.
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One of our most distinctive powers is imagination, our capability to imagine or fantasize about possible futures. Systematic use of imagination can be a powerful method to analyze possible next steps in the present. In 2012, UNESCO coined the term Futures Literacy (plural: the future does not exist, FL), the ability that enables people to understand the role the “futures” play in our behaviour, and expectations. Imagination is a developable skill that allows us to separate expected futures from desired futures using fantasy. FL can be used as a method to achieve the 5 Inner Development Goals: 1. Being (relationship to self), 2. Thinking (cognitive skills), 3. Relating (caring for others and the world), 4. Working together (social skills ) and 5. Tackling (steering the transition). It is argued that using FL can lead to paradogical insights!
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