In Eastern Africa, increasing climate variability and changing socioeconomic conditions are exacerbating the frequency and intensity of drought disasters. Droughts pose a severe threat to food security in this region, which is characterized by a large dependency on smallholder rain-fed agriculture and a low level of technological development in the food production systems. Future drought risk will be determined by the adaptation choices made by farmers, yet few drought risk models … incorporate adaptive behavior in the estimation of drought risk. Here, we present an innovative dynamic drought risk adaptation model, ADOPT, to evaluate the factors that influence adaptation decisions and the subsequent adoption of measures, and how this affects drought risk for agricultural production. ADOPT combines socio-hydrological and agent-based modeling approaches by coupling the FAO crop model AquacropOS with a behavioral model capable of simulating different adaptive behavioral theories. In this paper, we compare the protection motivation theory, which describes bounded rationality, with a business-as-usual and an economic rational adaptive behavior. The inclusion of these scenarios serves to evaluate and compare the effect of different assumptions about adaptive behavior on the evolution of drought risk over time. Applied to a semi-arid case in Kenya, ADOPT is parameterized using field data collected from 250 households in the Kitui region and discussions with local decision-makers. The results show that estimations of drought risk and the need for emergency food aid can be improved using an agent-based approach: we show that ignoring individual household characteristics leads to an underestimation of food-aid needs. Moreover, we show that the bounded rational scenario is better able to reflect historic food security, poverty levels, and crop yields. Thus, we demonstrate that the reality of complex human adaptation decisions can best be described assuming bounded rational adaptive behavior; furthermore, an agent-based approach and the choice of adaptation theory matter when quantifying risk and estimating emergency aid needs.
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The adaptation of urbanised areas to climate change is currently one of the key challenges in the domain of urban policy. The diversity of environmental determinants requires the formulation of individual plans dedicated to the most significant local issues. This article serves as a methodic proposition for the stage of retrieving data (with the PESTEL and the Delphi method), systemic diagnosis (evaluation of risk and susceptibility), prognosis (goal trees, goal intensity map) and the formulation of urban adaptation plans. The suggested solution complies with the Polish guidelines for establishing adaptation plans. The proposed methodological approach guarantees the participation of various groups of stakeholders in the process of working on urban adaptation plans, which is in accordance with the current tendencies to strengthen the role of public participation in spatial management. https://doi.org/10.12911/22998993/81658
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There is a clear demand for a collaborative knowledge-sharing by online climate adaptation platforms that contribute to (inter)national knowledge exchange and raising awareness about climate change. Climate adaptation platforms (CAPs) can contain decision-support tools to facilitate the process of decision-making, and may include capacity building, networking, dissemination to assist planning and implementation of proven adaptation concepts such as Nature-based solutions (NBS) to mitigate floodings, drought, and heat stress. From 2014 over 6000 global climate adaptation projects have been mapped on an open source platform ClimateScan using citizen science. This chapter describes the potential of this climate adaption platform by illustrated case studies with mapped climate adaptation measures in Africa, Asia, and Europe. The case studies illustrate engagement and tangible results related to online platforms such as: the period of relevance of ClimateScan, inclusiveness and engagement of users in different stages and continents. Workshops in Indonesia illustrate the need for validation of needs from potential users before implementing CAPs. Analyzing projects in Africa showcase best management practices in water conservation and water demand management that are of interest in many other regions in the world facing drought. In Europe detailed analysis of over 3000 climate adaptation measures in relation to neighborhood typologies is inspiring urban planners and stormwater managers to design, plan, and implement climate resilient measures with more confidence. These three global examples illustrate that mapping, promoting, and sharing knowledge about implemented proven concepts is raising awareness, contribute to community-building, and accelerate climate action around the world.
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Global climate change will result in more extreme heat, drought, and rainfall. The urban environment is particularly vulnerable to these effects. Adaptation to these extreme weather conditions is difficult due to the high complexity of urban land-use patterns and stakeholder configurations. The current practice in the field of urban climate adaptation mainly revolves around the assessment of climatological risks, leaving the question where measures can be implemented under-researched. This study proposes and tests a four-step GIS-based Decision Support Model (DSM) to map the spatial opportunities for adaptation measures in public and private spaces. The DSM was applied to the city of Groningen. The findings revealed that there is a relationship between urban design, climatological risks, and opportunities for adaptation measures, with higher density neighbourhoods showing more opportunities for greening private properties and permeable pavements and lower density neighbourhoods showing opportunities for the implementation of green-blue measures in public space. The application of this DSM can aid urban planners and other stakeholders in mapping spatial opportunities for climate adaptation, that is, allow for more precise site selection for adaptation efforts and for an evaluation of adaptation efforts in different neighbourhood typologies within the urban environment.
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Worldwide, rivers face challenges due to human and climatic pressures. Floods, droughts, pollution, damming and hydropeaking are only a few examples of these pressures, and influence the way rivers flow. Climate change adaptation projects increase the incentive to domesticate rivers, often legitimised through expert views on (future) vulnerability and risk. This emerging river imaginary dominates current debates in many rivers in our world. River imaginaries reflect spatially bound hydrosocial territories in which multiple actors on multiple scales from multiples sectors operate to reach varying objectives. They include water flows, ecological systems, climate conditions, hydraulic infrastructure, financial means, institutional arrangements, legal frameworks and information/knowledge hubs. In the context of climate change adaptation, river imaginaries are strongly dependent on the extent to which climate change is expected to influence rivers through a mixture of probable, possible, desirable or preferable versions of a (future) river. As such, knowledge-structures of future making are scrutinised in this research by emphasising on the role of change, the role of futures and the role of experts. This presentation aims to elucidate how river imaginaries have influenced river management under climate change adaptation that resulted in large infrastructural projects. Through a study of the Meuse river, a concrete case of a imaginary came into being in the Dutch-Belgian Border-Meuse trajectory. Moreover, preliminary result from adaptation projects in the marshlands of the lower Magdalena in Colombia strengthen the dominate imaginary of technocratic and ecocentric approaches to climate change adaptation where an expert view on local knowledge dominates.
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Permanent grassland soils can act as a sink for carbon and may therefore positively contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. We compared young (5–15 years since latest grassland renewal) with old (>20 years since latest grassland renewal) permanent grassland soils in terms of carbon stock, carbon sequestration, drought tolerance and flood resistance. The research was carried out on marine clay soil at 10 dairy farms with young and old permanent grassland. As hypothesized, the carbon stock was larger in old grassland (62 Mg C ha−1) topsoil (0–10 cm) than in young grassland topsoil (51 Mg C ha−1). The carbon sequestration rate was greater in young (on average 3.0 Mg C ha−1 year−1) compared with old grassland (1.6 Mg C ha−1 year−1) and determined by initial carbon stock. Regarding potential drought tolerance, we found larger soil moisture and soil organic matter (SOM) contents in old compared with young grassland topsoils. As hypothesized, the old grassland soils were more resistant to heavy rainfall as measured by water infiltration rate and macroporosity (at 20 cm depth) in comparison with the young grassland soils. In contrast to our hypothesis we did not find a difference in rooting between young and old permanent grassland, probably due to large variability in root biomass and root tip density. We conclude that old grasslands at dairy farms on clay soil can contribute more to the ecosystem services climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation than young grasslands. This study shows that under real farm conditions on a clay topsoil, carbon stock increases with grassland age and even after 30 years carbon saturation has not been reached. Further study is warranted to determine by how much extending grassland age can contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation.
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We summarize what we assess as the past year's most important findings within climate change research: limits to adaptation, vulnerability hotspots, new threats coming from the climate–health nexus, climate (im)mobility and security, sustainable practices for land use and finance, losses and damages, inclusive societal climate decisions and ways to overcome structural barriers to accelerate mitigation and limit global warming to below 2°C.
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With increase in awareness of the risks posed by climate change and increasingly severe weather events, attention has turned to the need for urgent action. While strategies to respond to flooding and drought are well-established, the effects - and effective response - to heat waves is much less understood. As heat waves become more frequent, longer-lasting and more intense, the Cool Towns project provides cities and municipalities with the knowledge and tools to become heat resilient. The first step to developing effective heat adaptation strategies is identifying which areas in the city experience the most heat stress and who are the residents most affected. This enables decision-makers to prioritise heat adaptation measures and develop a city-wide strategy.The Urban Heat Atlas is the result of four years of research. It contains a collection of heat related maps covering more than 40,000 hectares of urban areas in ten municipalities in England, Belgium, The Netherlands, and France. The maps demonstrate how to conduct a Thermal Comfort Assessment (TCA) systematically to identify heat vulnerabilities and cooling capacity in cities to enable decision-makers to set priorities for action. The comparative analyses of the collated maps also provide a first overview of the current heat resilience state of cities in North-Western Europe.
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Infiltrating pavements are potentially effective climate adaptation measures to counteract arising challenges related to flooding and drought in urban areas. However, they are susceptible to clogging causing premature degradation. As part of the Dutch Delta Plan, Dutch municipalities were encouraged to put infiltrating pavements into practice. Disappointing experiences made a significant number of municipalities decide, however, to stop further implementation. A need existed to better understand how infiltrating pavements function in practice. Through 81 full-scale infiltration tests, we investigated the performance of infiltrating pavements in practice. Most pavements function well above Dutch and international standards. However, variation was found to be high. Infiltration rates decrease over time. Age alone, however, is not a sufficient explanatory factor. Other factors, such as environmental or system characteristics, are of influence here. Maintenance can play a major role in preserving/improving the performance of infiltrating pavements in practice. While our results provide the first indication of the functioning of infiltrating pavement in practice, only with multi-year measurements following a strict monitoring protocol can the longer-term effects of environmental factors and maintenance actually be determined, providing the basis for the development of an optimal maintenance schedule and associated cost–benefit assessments to the added value of this type of climate adaptation.
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Abstract: Climate change is related with weather extremes, which may cause damages to infrastructure used by freight transport services. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding and damage to railway lines, roads and inland waterways. Extreme drought may lead to extremely low water levels, which prevent safe navigation by inland barges. Wet and dry periods may alternate, leaving little time to repair damages. In some Western and Middle-European countries, barges have a large share in freight transport. If a main waterway is out of service, then alternatives are called for. Volume- and price-wise, trucking is not a viable alternative. Could railways be that alternative? The paper was written after the unusually long dry summer period in Europe in 2022. It deals with the question: If the Rhine, a major European waterway becomes locally inaccessible, could railways (temporarily) play a larger role in freight transport? It is a continuation of our earlier research. It contains a case study, the data of which was fed into a simulation model. The model deals with technical details like service specification route length, energy consumption and emissions. The study points to interesting rail services to keep Europe’s freight on the move. Their realization may be complex especially in terms of logistics and infrastructure, but is there an alternative?
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