In Eastern Africa, increasing climate variability and changing socioeconomic conditions are exacerbating the frequency and intensity of drought disasters. Droughts pose a severe threat to food security in this region, which is characterized by a large dependency on smallholder rain-fed agriculture and a low level of technological development in the food production systems. Future drought risk will be determined by the adaptation choices made by farmers, yet few drought risk models … incorporate adaptive behavior in the estimation of drought risk. Here, we present an innovative dynamic drought risk adaptation model, ADOPT, to evaluate the factors that influence adaptation decisions and the subsequent adoption of measures, and how this affects drought risk for agricultural production. ADOPT combines socio-hydrological and agent-based modeling approaches by coupling the FAO crop model AquacropOS with a behavioral model capable of simulating different adaptive behavioral theories. In this paper, we compare the protection motivation theory, which describes bounded rationality, with a business-as-usual and an economic rational adaptive behavior. The inclusion of these scenarios serves to evaluate and compare the effect of different assumptions about adaptive behavior on the evolution of drought risk over time. Applied to a semi-arid case in Kenya, ADOPT is parameterized using field data collected from 250 households in the Kitui region and discussions with local decision-makers. The results show that estimations of drought risk and the need for emergency food aid can be improved using an agent-based approach: we show that ignoring individual household characteristics leads to an underestimation of food-aid needs. Moreover, we show that the bounded rational scenario is better able to reflect historic food security, poverty levels, and crop yields. Thus, we demonstrate that the reality of complex human adaptation decisions can best be described assuming bounded rational adaptive behavior; furthermore, an agent-based approach and the choice of adaptation theory matter when quantifying risk and estimating emergency aid needs.
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The adaptation of urbanised areas to climate change is currently one of the key challenges in the domain of urban policy. The diversity of environmental determinants requires the formulation of individual plans dedicated to the most significant local issues. This article serves as a methodic proposition for the stage of retrieving data (with the PESTEL and the Delphi method), systemic diagnosis (evaluation of risk and susceptibility), prognosis (goal trees, goal intensity map) and the formulation of urban adaptation plans. The suggested solution complies with the Polish guidelines for establishing adaptation plans. The proposed methodological approach guarantees the participation of various groups of stakeholders in the process of working on urban adaptation plans, which is in accordance with the current tendencies to strengthen the role of public participation in spatial management. https://doi.org/10.12911/22998993/81658
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There is a clear demand for a collaborative knowledge-sharing by online climate adaptation platforms that contribute to (inter)national knowledge exchange and raising awareness about climate change. Climate adaptation platforms (CAPs) can contain decision-support tools to facilitate the process of decision-making, and may include capacity building, networking, dissemination to assist planning and implementation of proven adaptation concepts such as Nature-based solutions (NBS) to mitigate floodings, drought, and heat stress. From 2014 over 6000 global climate adaptation projects have been mapped on an open source platform ClimateScan using citizen science. This chapter describes the potential of this climate adaption platform by illustrated case studies with mapped climate adaptation measures in Africa, Asia, and Europe. The case studies illustrate engagement and tangible results related to online platforms such as: the period of relevance of ClimateScan, inclusiveness and engagement of users in different stages and continents. Workshops in Indonesia illustrate the need for validation of needs from potential users before implementing CAPs. Analyzing projects in Africa showcase best management practices in water conservation and water demand management that are of interest in many other regions in the world facing drought. In Europe detailed analysis of over 3000 climate adaptation measures in relation to neighborhood typologies is inspiring urban planners and stormwater managers to design, plan, and implement climate resilient measures with more confidence. These three global examples illustrate that mapping, promoting, and sharing knowledge about implemented proven concepts is raising awareness, contribute to community-building, and accelerate climate action around the world.
DOCUMENT
Wet and healthy peatlands have a strong natural potential to save carbon and, due to their waterbuffering capacity, play an important role in managing periods of excessive rains or droughts. Yet, inNWE regions large areas of peatlands are drained for peat mining, agriculture or forestry, whichmakes them CO2 emission sources rather than sinks. By restoring the capacity to buffer carbon andwater, BUFFER+ partners aim at climate change adaptation and mitigation in NWE regions, while atthe same time restore biodiversity and create new revenue streams.BUFFER+ involves 21 partners and 7 Associated Organisations from regions
Climate change is increasing the challenges for water management worldwide. Extreme weather conditions, such as droughts and heavy rainfall, are increasingly limiting the availability of water, especially for agriculture. Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) offer potential solutions. They help to collect and infiltrate rainwater and thus play an important role in climate adaptation.Green infrastructure, such as rain gardens (sunken plant beds) and wadis (sunken grass fields for temporary storage of rainwater), help to restore the urban water balance. They reduce rainwater runoff, stabilize groundwater levels and solve problems with soil moisture and temperature. Despite these advantages, there is still much ignorance in practice about the possibilities of NBS. To remedy this, freely accessible knowledge modules are being developed that can help governments and future employees to better understand the application of these solutions. This research, called GINA (Green Infrastructure in Urban Areas), aims to create more sustainable and climate-resilient cities by developing and sharing knowledge about NBS, and supports local governments and students in effectively deploying these green infrastructures.
