In Eastern Africa, increasing climate variability and changing socioeconomic conditions are exacerbating the frequency and intensity of drought disasters. Droughts pose a severe threat to food security in this region, which is characterized by a large dependency on smallholder rain-fed agriculture and a low level of technological development in the food production systems. Future drought risk will be determined by the adaptation choices made by farmers, yet few drought risk models … incorporate adaptive behavior in the estimation of drought risk. Here, we present an innovative dynamic drought risk adaptation model, ADOPT, to evaluate the factors that influence adaptation decisions and the subsequent adoption of measures, and how this affects drought risk for agricultural production. ADOPT combines socio-hydrological and agent-based modeling approaches by coupling the FAO crop model AquacropOS with a behavioral model capable of simulating different adaptive behavioral theories. In this paper, we compare the protection motivation theory, which describes bounded rationality, with a business-as-usual and an economic rational adaptive behavior. The inclusion of these scenarios serves to evaluate and compare the effect of different assumptions about adaptive behavior on the evolution of drought risk over time. Applied to a semi-arid case in Kenya, ADOPT is parameterized using field data collected from 250 households in the Kitui region and discussions with local decision-makers. The results show that estimations of drought risk and the need for emergency food aid can be improved using an agent-based approach: we show that ignoring individual household characteristics leads to an underestimation of food-aid needs. Moreover, we show that the bounded rational scenario is better able to reflect historic food security, poverty levels, and crop yields. Thus, we demonstrate that the reality of complex human adaptation decisions can best be described assuming bounded rational adaptive behavior; furthermore, an agent-based approach and the choice of adaptation theory matter when quantifying risk and estimating emergency aid needs.
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European Union’s vulnerability to climate change stretches far beyond its borders because many of its economic sectors, such as meat and dairy, use raw materials sourced from far afield. Cross-border climate vulnerability is a relatively new subject in scientific literature, while of high societal and economic relevance. We quantify these climate vulnerabilities with a focus on drought risk and assessed them for 2030, 2050, 2085 and for RCP 2.6 and 6.0 climate scenarios. Here we find that more than 44% of the EU agricultural imports will become highly vulnerable to drought in future because of climate change. The drought severity in production locations of the agricultural imports in 2050 will increase by 35% compared to current levels of drought severity. This is particularly valid for imports that originate from Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, India and Turkey. At the same time, imports from Russia, Nigeria, Peru, Ecuador, Uganda and Kenya will be less vulnerable in future. We also report that the climate vulnerabilities of meat and dairy, chocolate (cocoa), coffee, palm oil-based food and cosmetic sectors mainly lie outside the EU borders rather than inside.
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This essay is a contribution to the research project ‘From Prevention to Resilience’ funded by ZonMw. Motivated by the Covid-19 pandemic, this research project explored how public space and forms of civic engagement can contribute to working towards more resilient urban neighborhoods. The project engaged a community of practice (CoP) to inform the research and to disseminate and critically discuss research outcomes. This essay, and the bundle it is part of, is the outcome of one of these engagements. The authors of this specific essay were asked to offer their disciplinary perspective on a first version of the Human / Non-Human Public Spaces design perspective, at that time still titled Nexus Framework on Neighborhood Resilience (click here and a PDF of this version will be downloaded). The authors were asked to do so based on their field of expertise, being climate-resilient cities. The authors have written this essay in coordination with the research team. To grasp the content of this essay and to take lessons from it, we encourage readers to first get familiar with the first version of the design perspective.
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The purpose of this paper is to discuss the insights gained by testing in a design studio a particular research-by-design strategy, focusing on the generation of innovative solutions for climate change adaptation. The strategy is based on the Design Thinking Process and has been applied in the climate adaptation design studio, which took place in 2022 at a Master of Architecture degree program in the Netherlands. The case study area was the Zernike university campus in Groningen, the Netherlands, which is situated in the verge between the city and the surrounding rural landscape, facing the urgent climate change challenges of the wider region, mainly floodings due to increased frequency of rainfalls and sea level rise. Furthermore, the area faces particular challenges, such as the increasing demand for serving additional needs, beyond the current educational and business related functions, such as (student) housing. Three indicative design research projects were selected to illustrate the tested research-by-design strategy, while systematic input has been collected from the participating students regarding the impact of this strategy on their design process. The results reveal that this strategy facilitates the iterative research-by-design process and hence offers a systematic approach to convert the threats of climate change into opportunities by unravelling the potentials of the study area, resulting in place-based, innovative and adaptive solutions.
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Abstract: Climate change is related with weather extremes, which may cause damages to infrastructure used by freight transport services. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding and damage to railway lines, roads and inland waterways. Extreme drought may lead to extremely low water levels, which prevent safe navigation by inland barges. Wet and dry periods may alternate, leaving little time to repair damages. In some Western and Middle-European countries, barges have a large share in freight transport. If a main waterway is out of service, then alternatives are called for. Volume- and price-wise, trucking is not a viable alternative. Could railways be that alternative? The paper was written after the unusually long dry summer period in Europe in 2022. It deals with the question: If the Rhine, a major European waterway becomes locally inaccessible, could railways (temporarily) play a larger role in freight transport? It is a continuation of our earlier research. It contains a case study, the data of which was fed into a simulation model. The model deals with technical details like service specification route length, energy consumption and emissions. The study points to interesting rail services to keep Europe’s freight on the move. Their realization may be complex especially in terms of logistics and infrastructure, but is there an alternative?
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The Caribbean Netherlands are dealing with a situation where imported vegetables and fruits are mostly imported and hardly affordable. This leads to consuming unhealthy food and high obesities rates as a consequence. A lack of good agricultural practices with regard to water-smart and nature inclusive agriculture, as well as limited coping capacities to deal with hazards and climate change, results in very limited local production and interest. Initiatives that focused only on agrotechnological solutions for food resilient futures turned out to be ineffective due to a lack of local ownership, which jeopardizes sustainability. Moreover, the 'green' and 'blue' domains are not seen as attractive career perspectives among youth, hampering a bright future for those domains.
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With increase in awareness of the risks posed by climate change and increasingly severe weather events, attention has turned to the need for urgent action. While strategies to respond to flooding and drought are well-established, the effects - and effective response - to heat waves is much less understood. As heat waves become more frequent, longer-lasting and more intense, the Cool Towns project provides cities and municipalities with the knowledge and tools to become heat resilient. The first step to developing effective heat adaptation strategies is identifying which areas in the city experience the most heat stress and who are the residents most affected. This enables decision-makers to prioritise heat adaptation measures and develop a city-wide strategy.The Urban Heat Atlas is the result of four years of research. It contains a collection of heat related maps covering more than 40,000 hectares of urban areas in ten municipalities in England, Belgium, The Netherlands, and France. The maps demonstrate how to conduct a Thermal Comfort Assessment (TCA) systematically to identify heat vulnerabilities and cooling capacity in cities to enable decision-makers to set priorities for action. The comparative analyses of the collated maps also provide a first overview of the current heat resilience state of cities in North-Western Europe.
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Due to climate change the frequency of extreme precipitation increases. To reduce the risk of damage by flooding, municipalities will need to retrofit urban areas in a climate-resilient way. To justify this investment, they need insight in possibilities and costs of climate-resilient urban street designs. This chapter focused on how to retrofit characteristic (Dutch) typologies of urban residential areas. For ten cases alternative street layouts were designed with a determination of the life cycle costs and benefits. All designs are resilient to extreme rain events. The results show that most flat urban typologies can easily be retrofitted in a climate-resilient way without additional costs compared to the standard way of retrofitting. Climate proofing sloping areas are highly dependent on the situation downstream. When there is no space downstream to divert the water into waterways or parks, costs to provide storage easily rise above traditional levels for retrofitting. In addition to reducing flood risk, for each case one variant includes resilience to extreme heat events making use of green. The life cycle costs and benefits of the green variants showed that especially green designs in high-density urban areas result in a better value for money.
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In this book of examples we present possible implementations of straightforward and manageable climate-resilient ideas and options for residential streets. Examples from ordinary Dutch street views show how climate resilience can be implemented with simple solutions and how this does not need to be more costly than traditional measures, particularly in flat areas (such as we often find in the Netherlands). This observation is based on comparative studies across various Dutch cities. We hope that the examples will inspire you to find ways to implementclimate-resilient measures in your city, because the climate is right up your street.
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This book of examples suggests a variety of options for easy and accessible climate-resilient retrofitting of residential areas. The case studies for a set of common streets in the Netherlands will match urban settings in other countries. The examples show that effective climate-resilient retrofitting is usually quite simple and does not necessarily incur higher costs than traditional approaches, particularly in flat areas. An examination of typical Dutch urban street designs shows how climate resilience can be incorporated under different conditions while keeping costs down with retrofitting. We have investigated the effects of four retrofitting variants and specified their cost and benefits, applying a typology of common residential street characteristics. We sincerely hope these case studies inspire you to get started in your own town, city and country, because the climate is right up your street.
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