Forensic DNA Trace Evidence Interpretation: Activity Level Propositions and Likelihood Ratios provides all foundational information required for a reader to understand the practice of evaluating forensic biology evidence given activity level propositions and to implement the practice into active casework within a forensic institution. The book begins by explaining basic concepts and foundational theory, pulling together research and studies that have accumulated in forensic journal literature over the last 20 years.The book explains the laws of probability - showing how they can be used to derive, from first principles, the likelihood ratio - used throughout the book to express the strength of evidence for any evaluation. Concepts such as the hierarchy of propositions, the difference between experts working in an investigative or evaluative mode and the practice of case assessment and interpretation are explained to provide the reader with a broad grounding in the topics that are important to understanding evaluation of evidence. Activity level evaluations are discussed in relation to biological material transferred from one object to another, the ability for biological material to persist on an item for a period of time or through an event, the ability to recover the biological material from the object when sampled for forensic testing and the expectations of the prevalence of biological material on objects in our environment. These concepts of transfer, persistence, prevalence and recovery are discussed in detail in addition to the factors that affect each of them.The authors go on to explain the evaluation process: how to structure case information and formulate propositions. This includes how a likelihood ratio formula can be derived to evaluate the forensic findings, introducing Bayesian networks and explaining what they represent and how they can be used in evaluations and showing how evaluation can be tested for robustness. Using these tools, the authors also demonstrate the ways that the methods used in activity level evaluations are applied to questions about body fluids. There are also chapters dedicated to reporting of results and implementation of activity level evaluation in a working forensic laboratory. Throughout the book, four cases are used as examples to demonstrate how to relate the theory to practice and detail how laboratories can integrate and implement activity level evaluation into their active casework.
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Although causal inference has shown great value in estimating effect sizes in, for instance, physics, medical studies, and economics, it is rarely used in sports science. Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) is a modern method for performing causal inference. TMLE is forgiving in the misspecification of the causal model and improves the estimation of effect sizes using machine-learning methods. We demonstrate the advantage of TMLE in sports science by comparing the calculated effect size with a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In this study, we introduce TMLE and provide a roadmap for making causal inference and apply the roadmap along with the methods mentioned above in a simulation study and case study investigating the influence of substitutions on the physical performance of the entire soccer team (i.e., the effect size of substitutions on the total physical performance). We construct a causal model, a misspecified causal model, a simulation dataset, and an observed tracking dataset of individual players from 302 elite soccer matches. The simulation dataset results show that TMLE outperforms GLM in estimating the effect size of the substitutions on the total physical performance. Furthermore, TMLE is most robust against model misspecification in both the simulation and the tracking dataset. However, independent of the method used in the tracking dataset, it was found that substitutes increase the physical performance of the entire soccer team.
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The study of human factors in forensic science informs our understanding of the interaction between humans and the systems they use. The Expert Working Group (EWG) on Human Factors in Forensic DNA Interpretation used a systems approach to conduct a scientific assessment of the effects of human factors on forensic DNA interpretation with the goal of recommending approaches to improve practice and reduce the likelihood and consequence of errors. This effort resulted in 44 recommendations. The EWG designed many of these recommendations to improve the production, interpretation, evaluation, documentation, and communication of DNA comparison results.
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Are professionals better at assessing the evidential strength of different types of forensic conclusions compared to students? In an online questionnaire 96 crime investigation and law students, and 269 crime investigation and legal professionals assessed three fingerprint examination reports. All reports were similar, except for the conclusion part which was stated in a categorical (CAT), verbal likelihood ratio (VLR) or numerical likelihood ratio (NLR) conclusion with high or low evidential strength. The results showed no significant difference between the groups of students and professionals in their assessment of the conclusions. They all overestimated the strength of the strong CAT conclusion compared to the other conclusion types and underestimated the strength of the weak CAT conclusion. Their background (legal vs. crime investigation) did have a significant effect on their understanding. Whereas the legal professionals performed better compared to the crime investigators, the legal students performed worse compared to crime investigation students.
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Forensic reports use various types of conclusions, such as a categorical (CAT) conclusion or a likelihood ratio (LR). In order to correctly assess the evidence, users of forensic reports need to understand the conclusion and its evidential strength. The aim of this paper is to study the interpretation of the evidential strength of forensic conclusions by criminal justice professionals. In an online questionnaire 269 professionals assessed 768 reports on fingerprint examination and answered questions that measured self-proclaimed and actual understanding of the reports and conclusions. The reports entailed CAT, verbal LR and numerical LR conclusions with low or high evidential strength and were assessed by crime scene investigators, police detectives, public prosecutors, criminal lawyers, and judges. The results show that about a quarter of all questions measuring actual understanding of the reports were answered incorrectly. The CAT conclusion was best understood for the weak conclusions, the three strong conclusions were all assessed similarly. The weak CAT conclusion correctly emphasizes the uncertainty of any conclusion type used. However, most participants underestimated the strength of this weak CAT conclusion compared to the other weak conclusion types. Looking at the self-proclaimed understanding of all professionals, they in general overestimated their actual understanding of all conclusion types.
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Introduction Coastal locations contribute significantly to global drowning, with surfers frequently conducting rescues. This study explored the characteristics of surfers as bystander rescuers in Europe. Methods A cross-sectional online survey collected demographics (age, sex, geographical location), surfing experience, ability, lifesaving and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) training, information seeking behaviors and previous performance of a rescue. Analyses comprised descriptive frequencies, binomial logistic regression with adjusted odds ratio (AOR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) and chi-squares (p < .05). Results Europe-dwelling respondents totaled 1705 (76% male; 43% 25–34 years). Thirty-nine percent (39.2%; n = 668) had previously performed a rescue. Likelihood of having conducted a rescue significantly increased with 6 or more years of surfing experience (6–10 years [AOR = 1.96; 95%CI: 1.20–3.22]; 11–15 years [AOR = 3.26; 95%CI: 1.56–6.79]; 16 years or more [AOR = 4.27; 95%CI: 2.00–9.11]) when compared to surfers with <1 year experience. Expert/professional ability surfers were 10.89 times (95%CI: 4.72–25.15) more likely to have conducted a rescue than novice/beginners. Respondents who had received both a certified lifeguard and CPR course were significantly more likely to have conducted a rescue (AOR = 3.34; 95%CI: 2.43–4.60). Conclusion Surfers who had previously conducted rescues commonly had more years of experience, higher self-rated surf ability and greater likelihood of having received certified training. However, not all surfers who have performed rescues had received training. Findings suggest surfers should receive rescue and CPR training before they start surfing at locations without trained supervision and refresh training regularly. Surfers are amenable to injury prevention information, especially online and via apps.
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IntroductionSeclusion still occurs on mental health wards, despite absence of therapeutic efficacy and high risks of adverse patient effects. Literature on the effect of nursing teams, and the role of psychological characteristics in particular, on frequency of seclusion is scarce.AimTo explore the influence of demographic, professional or psychological, nursing team-level, and shift characteristics on the frequency of use of seclusion.MethodsProspective two-year follow-up study.ResultsWe found that the probability of seclusion was lower when nursing teams with at least 75% males were on duty, compared to female only teams, odds ratio (OR = 0.283; 95% CrI 0.046–0.811). We observed a trend indicating that teams scoring higher on the openness personality dimension secluded less, (OR = 0.636; 95% CrI 0.292–1.156).DiscussionHigher proportions of male nurses in teams on duty were associated with lower likelihood of seclusion. We found an indication that teams with a higher mean openness personality trait tended to seclude less. These findings, if causal, could serve as an incentive to reflect on staff mix if circumstances demand better prevention of seclusion.
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Prevalence of research misconduct, questionable research practices (QRPs) and their associations with a range of explanatory factors has not been studied sufficiently among academic researchers. The National Survey on Research Integrity targeted all disciplinary fields and academic ranks in the Netherlands. It included questions about engagement in fabrication, falsification and 11 QRPs over the previous three years, and 12 explanatory factor scales. We ensured strict identity protection and used the randomized response method for questions on research misconduct. 6,813 respondents completed the survey. Prevalence of fabrication was 4.3% (95% CI: 2.9, 5.7) and of falsification 4.2% (95% CI: 2.8, 5.6). Prevalence of QRPs ranged from 0.6% (95% CI: 0.5, 0.9) to 17.5% (95% CI: 16.4, 18.7) with 51.3% (95% CI: 50.1, 52.5) of respondents engaging frequently in at least one QRP. Being a PhD candidate or junior researcher increased the odds of frequently engaging in at least one QRP, as did being male. Scientific norm subscription (odds ratio (OR) 0.79; 95% CI: 0.63, 1.00) and perceived likelihood of detection by reviewers (OR 0.62, 95% CI: 0.44, 0.88) were associated with engaging in less research misconduct. Publication pressure was associated with more often engaging in one or more QRPs frequently (OR 1.22, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.30). We found higher prevalence of misconduct than earlier surveys. Our results suggest that greater emphasis on scientific norm subscription, strengthening reviewers in their role as gatekeepers of research quality and curbing the “publish or perish” incentive system promotes research integrity.
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Background: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is being used extensively in the search for pathoanatomical factors contributing to low back pain (LBP) such as Modic changes (MC). However, it remains unclear whether clinical findings can identify patients with MC. The purpose of this explorative study was to assess the predictive value of six clinical tests and three questionnaires commonly used with patients with low-back pain (LBP) on the presence of Modic changes (MC).Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed using data from Dutch military personnel in the period between April 2013 and July 2016. Questionnaires included the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire, Numeric Pain Rating Scale, and Pain Self-Efficacy Questionnaire. The clinical examination included (i) range of motion, (ii) presence of pain during flexion and extension, (iii) Prone Instability Test, and (iv) straight leg raise. Backward stepwise regression was used to estimate predictive value for the presence of MC and the type of MC. The exploration of clinical tests was performed by univariable logistic regression models.Results: Two hundred eighty-six patients were allocated for the study, and 112 cases with medical records and MRI scans were available; 60 cases with MC and 52 without MC. Age was significantly higher in the MC group. The univariate regression analysis showed a significantly increased odds ratio for pain during flexion movement (2.57 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-6.08]) in the group with MC. Multivariable logistic regression of all clinical symptoms and signs showed no significant association for any of the variables. The diagnostic value of the clinical tests expressed by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive, and negative predictive values showed, for all the combinations, a low area under the curve (AUC) score, ranging from 0.41 to 0.53. Single-test sensitivity was the highest for pain in flexion: 60% (95% CI: 48.3-70.4).Conclusion: No model to predict the presence of MC, based on clinical tests, could be demonstrated. It is therefore not likely that LBP patients with MC are very different from other LBP patients and that they form a specific subgroup. However, the study only explored a limited number of clinical findings and it is possible that larger samples allowing for more variables would conclude differently.
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In most models on terrorism, interaction with other radicals is a key factor. However, systematic empirical evidence that radical ties affect behaviour is scarce. Our access to detailed police information allows us to apply Social Network Analysis (SNA) on a Dutch Salafi-Jihadi network and analyse the social relationships and network positions of 80 actors, out of whom 20 turned to terrorist acts. The results suggest that ties to leaders and terrorist offenders, co-attendance of radicalising settings and greater structural embeddedness relate to the likelihood of individual actors turning to acts of terrorism. However, we also find some individual attributes that may offer competing explanations. In this paper we discuss our findings and address how future research may provide further insights into an important issue for agencies involved in countering terrorism: which radical actors, if any, are more likely to turn to acts of terrorism?
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